論文

Economic incentives are expected to play an important role in increasing the acceptability of high-level radioactive waste (HLW) repositories; however, their effectiveness is debated and there is a lack of sufficient evidence concerning the specific factors that affect their efficacy. This study identified two factors that may be particularly pertinent to HLW management issues, namely the probability of construction and the initial level of acceptance. We tested their moderating effects on the ability of perceived economic benefits to promote acceptability, based on the framework of the repugnant transaction theory. Analysis of original survey data for hypothetical HLW management scenarios in Japan revealed that the subjective probability of construction significantly diminished the positive impact of economic incentives on acceptability. In contrast, whether participants lived in candidate areas, i.e., areas with a high objective construction probability, did not alter the effects of these incentives. Furthermore, quantile regression analysis revealed that economic incentives were less effective in influencing those with lower initial levels of acceptance. In the context of site selection policies, these findings caution against an over-reliance on monetary incentives to tackle issues of unfairness and point to the urgency of developing a more sophisticated understanding of these dynamics. Our results show that well-structured, responsive public engagement processes and transparent governance schemes are crucial for long-term acceptability, particularly when construction becomes more imminent.