論文

Understanding variable dependence, particularly eliciting their statistical properties given a set of covariates, provides the mathematical foundation in practical operations management such as risk analysis and decision making given observed circumstances. This article presents an estimation method for modeling the conditional joint distribution of bivariate outcomes based on the distribution regression and factorization methods. This method is considered semiparametric in that it allows for flexible modeling of both the marginal and joint distributions conditional on covariates without imposing global parametric assumptions across the entire distribution. In contrast to existing parametric approaches, our method can accommodate discrete, continuous, or mixed variables, and provides a simple yet effective way to capture distributional dependence structures between bivariate outcomes and covariates. Various simulation results confirm that our method can perform similarly or better in finite samples compared to the alternative methods. In an application to the study of a motor third-part liability insurance portfolio, the proposed method effectively estimates risk measures such as the conditional Value-at-Risks and Expexted Sortfall. This result suggests that this semiparametric approach can serve as an alternative in insurance risk management.

We propose a semiparametric method to estimate the average treatment effect under the assumption of unconfoundedness given observational data. Our estimation method alleviates misspecification issues of the propensity score function by estimating the single-index link function involved through Hermite polynomials. Our approach is computationally tractable and allows for moderately large dimension covariates. We provide the large sample properties of the estimator and show its validity. Also, the average treatment effect estimator achieves the parametric rate and asymptotic normality. Our extensive Monte Carlo study shows that the proposed estimator is valid in finite samples. We also provide an empirical analysis on the effect of maternal smoking on babies' birth weight and the effect of job training program on future earnings.