論文

Motivated by the observation that when China broke from its US dollar peg in 2005, Malaysia and Singapore likewise loosened their currency ties to the US dollar, this paper considers how these two countries might best respond to a hypothetical transition by China to a new basket peg regime. We specify five alternative exchange rate strategies that encompass fixed, basket, and floating regimes and gradual versus sudden transitions. To project outcomes for macroeconomic variables under these alternative regimes, we apply a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of a small open economy and incorporate exogenous shocks as actually occurred from 2005 Q1 to 2014 Q4. We then compare the strategies based on values of a cumulative loss function defined on the output gap, the inflation rate, and the real effective exchange rate. The exercise reveals that a gradual adjustment to a basket peg with long-term optimal weights is the first-best policy for both countries, where optimal weights are derived to minimize the loss function. Further, both a sudden shift to a basket peg with optimal weights and a sudden shift to a floating rate regime are superior to maintaining the dollar peg in Malaysia, but not to maintaining the existing basket peg in Singapore. (C) 2016 Published by Elsevier Inc.

This paper develops and estimates a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model representing several key characteristics of Japan, namely, a large open economy, with large fiscal deficits and increasing amounts of debt held by domestic residents, through recurring sets of adverse shocks to productivity and positiye shocks to government spending. We compare optimal simple rules for consumption tax rates, a Taylor rule with negative interest rates, and a quantitative easing rule, for reducing government debt held by the banking system, as well as optimizing welfare. In times of crisis, we show that the QE policy rule outperforms optimally -derived simple tax-rate rules or Taylor rules with negative interest rates for mitigating the costs of post -crisis adjustment and debt overhang. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The global financial crisis has put a spotlight on concerns about financial system stability. Currently, there are discussions about how to identify systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs) and how to strengthen regulatory measures for these SIFIs. Against the backdrop, this study aims to identify SIFIs by measuring inter-sectoral financial transactions with the flow of funds (FOF) account as a measure of interconnectedness. The empirical results show that banks or insurance companies can be SIFIs only in terms of size. However, foreign banks' branches (FBB) and credit-specialized institutions can also be SIFIs in terms of interconnectedness. Especially the systemic importance of FBB in Korea has increased considering the fact that financial crisis in Korea resulted mainly from foreign exchange market. Therefore, more specific discussions and regulatory measures for SIFIs will be required from the perspective of capital market development and Korea's situation. © 2013 © 2013 Institute of East and West Studies, Yonsei University, Seoul.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the financial turmoil of the US subprime loan crisis of mid-Noughties and to compare it with the Japanese asset bubble of late 1980s. While examining the two crises, it compares the monetary policies of both countries, focusing on the excess liquidity and expansion of bank loans that were seen. This paper develops several bubble indicators, including the ratio of real estate loans to total loans, the loan-to-GDP ratio, and housing affordability. In order to develop these indicators, it is necessary to compare banking behavior in both Japan and the United States, as banks in both countries were making loans beyond the point of profit maximization. Property prices and monetary policy in both countries influenced banking behavior significantly. The bubble indicators developed in this paper can be used as early warning indicators for future bubbles. © 2013 Springer-Verlag London.

This study investigates how financial literacy and behavioral traits affect the adoption of electronic payment (ePayment) services in Japan. We construct a financial literacy index using a representative sample of 25,000 individuals from the Bank of Japan’s 2019 Financial Literacy Survey. We then analyze the relationship between this index and the extensive and intensive usage of two types of payment services: electronic money (e-money) and mobile payment apps. Using an instrumental variable approach, we find that higher financial literacy is positively associated with a higher likelihood of adopting ePayment services. The empirical results suggest that individuals with higher financial literacy use payment services more frequently. We also find that risk-averse people are less likely to adopt and use ePayment services, whereas people with herd behavior tend to adopt and use ePayment services more. Our empirical results also suggest that the effects of financial literacy on the adoption and use of ePayment differ among people with different behavioral traits.

While infrastructure provides necessary public services and is vital for the socio-economic development of a nation, public funds alone cannot finance all infrastructure needs in society, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic, where many countries are facing budget deficits. Although private financing schemes, such as public-private partnerships (PPPs) and land value capture, have been considered intensively, they have yet to produce adequate private capital flows to infrastructure projects due to a lack of incentives for private investors. Against the background, this paper proposes a new financing mechanism in which governments might divert some of the increased tax revenue from the spillover effects of newly constructed infrastructures to fund the private sector through grants or subsidies. The empirical work in Vietnam shows a significant increase in tax revenues after completing two expressways, supporting our idea about spillover effects, which includes small-and medium-sized enterprise (SME) development. This study’s results suggest that spillover effects can bring new opportunities for governments and multilateral development banks (MDBs) to implement infrastructure projects with greater private sector involvement in the region. It also proposes some financial schemes, such as land capture and financing for business startups, including SMEs, to enhance the spillover effects of infrastructure.

This paper analyzes the influence of certain factors on the demand and supply of solar modules by employing the fully modified ordinary least squares method using Japanese data. Our regression analysis shows that interest rates and money supply (M2) significantly impact the solar photovoltaic module supply, indicating that lower interest rates and more funding channels for the renewable energy sector will increase solar photovoltaic module production. Based on this finding, the paper concludes that, for Japan to increase its energy self-sufficiency rate, the Government of Japan should implement green financing policies, providing renewable energy business owners with a wider variety of funding channels with lower interest rates, and ultimately invigorating investments in solar photovoltaic installation.

This paper develops a New Keynesian model to examine a theoretical global economy with two basic macroeconomic components: an energy1 producer and an energy consumer. This simple economy uses these two components to evaluate how oil prices affect the consumer economy’s gross domestic product and inflation. This model assumes that changes in the oil price transfer to macro variables through either supply (aggregate supply curve) or demand channels (aggregate demand curve). To examine the effects of this transfer, an Investment-Saving (IS) curve is used to look at the demand side and a Phillips curve is used to analyze the inflationary effects from the supply side. The empirical analysis concludes that movements in the oil price mainly affect the economy through the demand side (shifting the aggregate demand curve) by affecting household expenditures and energy consumption. This analysis provides several additional findings, among which is that easy monetary policies amplify energy demand more than supply, resulting in skyrocketing crude oil prices, which inhibit economic growth.

Asian economies are often characterized as having bank-dominated financial systems and underdeveloped capital markets, in particular with regard to venture capital. In economies that banks are the main source of funding, the main obstacle for financing infrastructural projects including renewable energy (RE) projects is lack of access to long-term finance. The second obstacle for development of RE energy projects is their lower rate of return comparing to fossil fuel projects as more subsidies are globally going to fossil fuels. For larger RE projects insurance and pensions are sustainable financing alternatives. Pension funds and insurance companies hold long-term savings, so these institutions could be a proper alternative for financing mega-size RE projects. In addition, utilizing the spillover effects originally created by energy supplies in form of tax revenues refund to RE projects will increase their rate of return and make them interesting for private investors. For smaller-size RE projects, the paper provides a theoretical model for combining utilisation of carbon tax and a new way of financing risky capital, i.e., Hometown Investment Trust Funds (HITs). The paper theoretically shows that by environmental taxation and allocating these tax revenues to HITs, RE projects will become more feasible and more interesting for private investors; hence the supply of investment money to these funds will increase.

The Covid-19 pandemic and global economic recession has shrunk global energy demand and collapsed fossil fuel prices. Therefore, renewable energy projects are losing their competitiveness. This endangers the achievement of several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. Various consulting companies define the SDGs differently. Institutional investors hire consulting companies and allocate their investment based on the consultants’ suggestions. This paper theoretically shows that the current allocation of investors by considering SDG based on various consulting companies will lead to distortion in the investment portfolio. The desired portfolio allocation can be achieved by taxing pollution and waste such as CO , NO , and plastics, globally with the same tax rate. Global taxation on pollution will lead to the desired portfolio allocation of assets. 2 x

This paper analyzes a unique case of default risks associated with a solar homes program in Bangladesh, implemented by the Infrastructure Development Company Limited (IDCOL). Out of 4.3 million solar homes adopter households, about 1.2 million households became default in paying their due payment of the solar home system. We explain the behavior of the customers in a hyperbolic discounting framework where various shocks increase the risks of default. Further we extend the model to explain moral hazard problem under the refinancing program structure in the absence of an optimal contract. For empirical analysis, we apply the Cox's proportional hazard model to study the factors responsible for default and instantaneous hazard rates. Using primary survey data from 1300 households, we find that various exogenous shocks and financial constraints can explain the default situation of the customers along with a portion of the default customers being adversely selected in the context of moral hazard problem, which is consistent with the prediction of our theoretical model. We propose a market-based solution to the problem by withdrawing subsidies from the program.

The international remittances by immigrants to their home countries is one of the key sources of funding development in middle-income countries, especially in migrant-sending countries. This study assesses the determinants of international remittances using panel data from 22 Asia-Pacific middle-income countries, most of which are well-known migrant-sending countries, using the generalized method of moments (GMM) method. The results show that the gap in the per capita GDP growth rate between origin and destination countries, gross enrollment ratio of secondary education, and trade openness are positively associated with remittance inflow. On the other hand, net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows are negatively correlated with remittance inflows. The results of this study can be interpreted as a paradigm shift for acquiring foreign capital in middle-income countries, from remittances in earlier stages of development to more FDI inflows when the country has the pre-requisites for absorbing foreign capital. The remittance inflows should be highly important, especially in the early stage of economic development, as additional incomes, or investment sources for those who live in middle-income countries.

Purpose: One of the key drivers behind the recent growth in the global solar energy market is the decline in solar module prices. Many empirical analyses have been carried out to identify the mechanism behind this price reduction. However, studies on the price reduction mechanism of solar modules over the years have focused purely on the technological aspect of manufacturing. The purpose of this study is to consider the influence of economic and monetary factors such as the interest rate and exchange rate on solar module pricing in addition to other factors that considered in earlier studies including technology, wage rate and other energy prices. Design/methodology/approach: In this paper, an oligopolistic model and econometric method are used to determine the economic factors that have an influence on solar module prices. The paper constructs a solar module pricing model and conducts a fully modified ordinary least squares analysis to estimate the influence of each factor. Analysis is conducted for the top five solar module producing countries in the world from 1997 to 2015. The five countries are the People’s Republic of China, Germany, Japan, the Republic of Korea and the USA. Findings: Empirical analysis provides several findings concerning the solar module pricing mechanism. These vary for each country. However, generally the interest rate has a positive correlation with solar module prices, while the exchange rate, knowledge stock and oil price have a negative correlation with solar module prices. Practical implications: First, the government must expand channels for renewable energy funding. As renewable industries are high-tech, the influence that capital cost has on technology price is significant. Government efforts to provide industries with low-interest finance will accelerate renewable business. There have been many attempts to lower interest rates for renewable energy technology to accelerate growth in the green technology market. Second, the government must expand research and development (R&D) expenditures focused on renewable energy technology. The technological advancements acquired through R&D enhance module performance efficiency, thereby reducing costs. Therefore, government policies aimed at increasing targeted R&D expenditure will be an effective means of expanding the installation of renewable energies. Originality/value: Studies on the price reduction mechanism of solar modules over the years have focused purely on the technological aspect of the manufacturing. This is the first research to bring economic, monetary and technological factors of solar module pricing together.

Asia remained the largest energy consumer in 2020. The Russian Federation hopes to gain a greater share of the Asian energy market. This study examined the Russian Federation–Asia and Pacific energy trade patterns using gravity trade theory and GMM panel estimation for 17 selected Asia and Pacific economies. We found that the Russian Federation's energy exports to the Asia–Pacific region (APR) followed the Linder hypothesis, and economic growth positively influenced Russian energy exports in the region. Furthermore, The results indicated that the sanctions against Russia since 2014 stimulated an increase in Russian energy exports to the APR. To improve the region's energy security, we recommend developing an energy trading hub in the APR to increase regional pricing power.

Japan has suffered from sluggish economic growth and recession since the early 1990s. In this paper, we analyze the causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy (the lost decade). Economics Nobel laureate Paul Krugman has argued that Japan's lost decade is an example of a liquidity trap. However, our empirical analysis shows that stagnation of the Japanese economy comes from its vertical IS curve rather than a horizontal LM curve, so the Japanese economy has been facing structural problems rather than a temporary downturn. The vertical IS curve is caused by an insensitivity of investment to a lower interest rate partly because of the decline of sales due to the aging population and firms not wanting to invest. The structural problems come from the aging demographic, which is often neglected by scholars and policy-makers, and also from the allocation of transfers from the central government to local governments, and the unwillingness of Japanese banks to lend money to startup businesses and small and medium enterprises (SMEs), mainly because of Basel capital requirements. Many countries, like China, are expected to face similar issues, particularly given the aging population. The present paper will address why the Japanese economy has been trapped in a prolonged slowdown and provide some remedies for revitalizing the economy.

In April 2013, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) introduced an inflation target of 2% with the aim of overcoming deflation and achieving sustainable economic growth. But due to lower international oil prices it was unable to achieve this target and was forced to take further measures. Hence, in February 2016, the BOJ adopted a negative interest rate policy by massively increasing the money supply through the purchase of long-term Japanese government bonds (JGB). The BOJ had previously only purchased short-term government bonds, a policy that flattened the yield curve of JGBs. On the one hand, banks reduced the number of government bonds they purchased because short-term bond yields had become negative. The interest rates of long-term government bond up to 15 years even became negative. On the other hand, bank loans to corporates did not increase, due to Japanese economy's vertical investment-saving (IS) curve. The purpose of this paper is to show that the monetary policy through implementation of the zero interest rate and more recently through the negative interest rate could not help the Japanese economy to recover from the long-lasting recession and these are not the remedy. It is of key importance to make the IS curve downward rather than vertical. That means the rate of return on investment must be positive and companies must be willing to invest even if interest rates are set too low. Japan's long-term recession is due to structural problems that cannot be solved by its current monetary policy. The paper also explains why the BOJ has to reduce its 2% inflation target in the present low oil price era.

This paper discusses exchange rate policies in East Asia. In particular, we explore whether actual policies that have been implemented by East Asian countries after the Asian Financial Crisis follow or deviate from theoretically desirable policies over the medium and long terms. On theoretical analysis, we show the relative superiority of a basket-peg regime with the basket weight rule when compared with a floating regime implementing the interest rate rule or money supply rule. For countries that currently adopt a fixed exchange rate regime, they would be better off shifting toward either a basket-peg or a floating regime over the medium term. A shift to a basket peg is more preferred when compared with a shift to a floating regime when the exchange rate fluctuations are large.

We propose a new dynamic transition analysis on the basis of a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Our proposed analysis differs from existing static and conventional dynamic analyses in that shifts from a fixed exchange rate regime to a basket peg or a floating regime are explicitly explored.We apply quantitative analysis, using data from the People’s Republic of China and Thailand, and find that both economieswould be better off shifting from a dollar peg to a basket peg or a floating regime over the long run. Furthermore, the longer the transition period, the greater the benefits of shifting to a basket peg regime from a dollar peg regime owing to limited volatility in interest rates. Regarding sudden shifts to a desired regime, the welfare gains are larger under a shift to a basket peg if the exchange rate fluctuates significantly.

The paper considers the optimal transition path for China's exchange rate regime. How can China successfully make the shift from the current dollar peg regime to a more desirable regime, whether a basket peg or a floating regime? To answer this question, we develop a dynamic small open economy general equilibrium model. We construct four transition policies based on a basket peg or a floating regime and compare the welfare gains of these policies relative to maintaining the dollar peg regime. Two main results are derived from the quantitative analysis using Chinese data from 1999Q1 to 2010Q4. First, following a gradual adjustment to a basket peg regime is the most appropriate path for China to take, with minimal welfare losses associated with the shift in the exchange rate regime. Second, a sudden shift to the basket peg is the second best solution, and is superior to a sudden shift to floating because the monetary authority can efficiently determine optimal weights to attach to currencies in the basket to achieve policy goals once they adopt a basket peg regime.

This study tries to find new insights of implementations of carbon tax policy as a suitable way to reach the long-term zero-carbon plan. This paper explores how carbon tax can affect the macroeconomy in Japan through the structural vector autoregression (S-VAR) technique conducted for the quarterly data throughout 2005-2020. A theoretical general equilibrium model backs the empirical analysis. The major findings reveal that any increase in energy price from the carbon tax will lead to an increase in interest rate, exchange rate, and consumer price index while there is a negative relationship between energy price increase from carbon tax and real gross domestic product (GDP) in Japan. Carbon Policy Refolution (Reform+Evolution), refunding carbon tax revenues, and adaptation of long-term policy of net zero GHG emissions by 2050 with the current situation of Japan's power sectors are the major practical policies of this study.