Books etc

The 19th edition of the APO Productivity Databook provides standardized productivity and growth comparisons across 38 Asian economies and selected global reference economies over the period 1970–2024, with projections extending to 2035. Based on harmonized statistical concepts and internationally comparable methodologies, it evaluates Asia’s structural transformation, growth and productivity trends, and long-term development prospects. It also examines trade reconfiguration under geopolitical and policy shocks, energy prices and industrial competitiveness, and the relationship between AI and productivity. Productivity enhancement is defined as either increasing output from a given level of inputs or maintaining or expanding output while reducing resource use. As the indispensable foundation of resilient, sustained economic growth, improving national productivity remains a fundamental policy imperative. The Databook presents indicators of economic growth and labor productivity for 38 Asian economies (Asia38), comprising the 21 APO member economies (APO21) together with 17 non-member economies. For a subset of 28 economies (Asia28)—the APO21 plus Afghanistan, Bhutan, Brunei, China, the Maldives, Myanmar, and Saudi Arabia—it develops full productivity accounts, including capital and labor inputs and total factor productivity (TFP), covering approximately 94% of the region’s output in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms in 2024. The 2026 edition expands the coverage of labor productivity indicators from Asia33 to Asia38 by adding the Central Asian Five—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan—and extends the full productivity accounts from Asia27 to Asia28 by incorporating Saudi Arabia. It also incorporates major national accounts benchmark revisions in seven economies while ensuring consistency across the long-term series. In addition, the United States (US), Australia, the European Union (EU), France, Germany, Italy, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom (UK) are included as reference economies.

This book provides a comprehensive analysis of Bhutan’s economic growth and productivity dynamics from 1990 to 2022, with a special focus on hydropower development. Through the construction of detailed industry-level productivity accounts, the study addresses significant data gaps in Bhutan’s national accounts, measuring outputs and inputs across various sectors and developing quality-adjusted labor and capital input series. The analysis reveals the complexities of Bhutan’s hydropower-led growth strategy: while the sector has driven substantial economic growth, its contribution to overall productivity improvement has been limited. The electricity sector shows gains in labor productivity but declining capital productivity, resulting in stagnant Total Factor Productivity (TFP). The study also examines productivity trends in non-electricity sectors and addresses potential “Dutch disease” effects on manufacturing and agricultural competitiveness. International comparisons place Bhutan’s productivity performance in a regional context, revealing significant gaps in productivity performance, particularly when compared to India, Bhutan’s largest trading partner and a regional economic benchmark. This comparative analysis informs policy recommendations for achieving more balanced and sustainable economic growth. The findings are particularly relevant for Bhutan’s Thirteenth Five-Year Plan (2024–2029), which emphasizes productivity improvements across all economic sectors. The book serves as a valuable resource for policymakers, economists, and researchers interested in development economics, particularly those focused on the unique challenges faced by small, landlocked nations pursuing sustainable economic development.

Energy costs in the economy amount to only a few percent of gross domestic product, but their importance to economic growth is much greater than their apparent number. Energy is used in almost all production and consumption activities, and energy price changes induce significant spillover effects throughout the economic system. More importantly, stable and affordable access to energy is a critical factor in determining the rate of capital accumulation in a domestic economy and, hence, labor productivity growth. The expansion of production per hour worked is achieved by using more and higher quality capital, which requires more energy to operate. This book aims to provide robust observational facts on energy productivity improvement (EPI) and to analyze the mechanisms of EPI achieved in Japan’s economic growth from 1955 to 2019. Linking the productivity account with energy statistics enables us to attempt not only to develop a better indicator of energy productivity but also to evaluate the EPI with other significant changes in the production process, such as capital productivity, labor productivity, and even the overall efficiency measured in terms of total factor productivity. This book is a valuable resource for researchers and policymakers seeking to understand the role of energy throughout the economy and for economic planners seeking to ensure the efficient use of energy now and into the future.

This book reexamines the sources of Japan’s long-term economic stagnation from the perspectives of energy constraints and productivity. Although energy appears as a relatively small cost component in GDP, it constitutes a fundamental input underpinning capital utilization and labor productivity. Its price level and supply structure therefore exert a substantial influence on medium- to long-term economic growth. Using long-term data covering the period since 1885 at the macro level and since 1955 at the industry level, the book analyzes the dynamics of energy productivity (EPI). It develops a productivity accounting framework that integrates energy quality, industrial structure, and technological change. In addition, by employing indicators such as the real unit energy cost (RUEC) and the effective import dependency of electricity (EID), the book examines Japan’s resilience to energy price changes and its structural vulnerabilities in an international comparative context. The empirical findings suggest that recent energy and environmental policies in Japan, rather than promoting growth through improvements in energy productivity, may have constrained economic growth by suppressing capital accumulation and slowing total factor productivity (TFP) growth. The book concludes by redefining the conditions under which economic growth and environmental policy can be reconciled, and provides a foundation for designing effective energy policies.

The 18th edition of the APO Productivity Databook provides standardized productivity and growth comparisons across 33 Asian economies and selected global reference economies over the period 1970–2023, with projections extending to 2035. Based on harmonized statistical concepts and internationally comparable methodologies, it evaluates Asia’s structural transformation, post-COVID-19 recovery, and long-term development prospects. Productivity enhancement is defined as either increasing output from a given level of inputs or sustaining output while reducing resource use. As the indispensable foundation of resilient long-term growth, improving national productivity remains a fundamental policy imperative. The Databook presents indicators of economic growth and labor productivity for 33 Asian economies (Asia33), comprising the 21 APO member economies (APO21) together with 12 non-member economies. For a subset of 27 economies (Asia27)—the APO21 plus Afghanistan, Bhutan, Brunei, China, the Maldives, and Myanmar—it develops full productivity accounts, including capital and labor inputs and total factor productivity (TFP), covering approximately 93% of the region's output in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms. The 2025 edition expands analytical coverage by including Afghanistan and the Maldives in both Asia33 and Asia27 for the first time. In addition, the United States (US) is included as the reference economy for Asia27, while Australia, the European Union (EU), France, Germany, Italy, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom (UK) are included as reference economies for Asia33.

Using SBI-BIP, this chapter portrays the Japanese economy of 2040 along two scenarios: a Business-as-Usual (BaU) path extending current trends, and a Technology and Societal Implementation (TSI) path in which the societal implementation of technological innovation advances. It analyzes the sources of growth under TSI—where nominal GDP reaches approximately ¥1,000 trillion—and its consequences for employment, income distribution, AI utilization, and energy constraints, showing that realizing this potential depends not on technological progress alone but also on the economic and social foundations that support its implementation.

This chapter reviews the history of policymaking on low-carbon development and decarbonization, examining distortions in economic and technological assessments and the uncertainty that remains in their scientific basis. Under the “two uncertainties” of climate change and the energy transition, it argues for the importance of not betting on any single path and of keeping diverse options open.

第7版は、第6版から大幅に拡充。最大の変更点は現状認識I章の全面再編で、新たにI.2「気候変動の科学的知見」を独立章として新設（12節構成）。第6版II.10に収録されていた気候科学関連の節を移管・拡充し、気候科学そのものへの批判的検証を体系化した。I.1（脱炭素政策の弊害）には「日独における鉄鋼の生産減退」「再エネ主力電源化の問題点」「再エネ開発と地域社会の衝突」など3節を新設。第6版のI.2（人為的温暖化論の社会学）はI.3に繰り下げ「メディアと言論行動のメカニズム」「気候変動言論の構造的収斂」の2節を追加、I.3（世界的に後退する脱炭素政策）はI.4に繰り下げ欧州グリーン実験の総括・米国火力復活・2025年の転換点など3節を追加した。政策提言のII章では、化石燃料章（II.3）に「ホルムズ海峡危機対応」を冒頭節として新設し、電力需給シナリオ・石炭サプライチェーン・固定費回収問題など4節を追加。エネルギーコスト章（II.1）に「GXは戦後最大級の政策的失敗である」など3節を新設。自動車章（II.5）には「日本自動車産業の現状と競争力」を冒頭節として追加。省エネ規制章（II.7）は2節から4節に全面改訂。電気事業制度章（II.8）には「自由化10年の総括—官製市場の失敗」1節を新設した。

「エネルギードミナンス」という概念を掲げ、脱炭素偏重の第6次エネ基を批判し、安全保障と経済成長を重視した11項目の政策提言（電力コスト低減、原子力50%目標、化石燃料安定利用、太陽光停止、EV拙速反対、省エネ規制廃止、垂直統合復活、備蓄強化、CO2総量目標廃止、パリ協定代替協定など）を体系的に示した。

第2版では、第1版の構成を維持しつつ、再エネ・経済安保に関する論点を大幅に強化した。具体的には、II.6章に「ウイグル人権問題に関する経済安全保障」「グリーン経済安全保障」「洋上風力発電が日本を貧しくする」の3節を新設。また、電力コストやGX関連のデータ・図表が各所で更新された。

第3版における最大の変更点はII.8「電気事業制度を垂直統合型に戻す」章の大幅加筆であり、第2版の5節構成から「震災前の電力システム改革」「震災後の電力システム改革」の2節を新設した7節構成に再編。東日本大震災前後の電力自由化の経緯と問題点を詳述し、垂直統合復帰の論拠を強化した。

第4版では、II.6章に「水素関連技術が簡単に安くならない理由」を新設（旧II.6.4以降の節番号が一つずつ後ろにシフト）。水素基本戦略の目標未達の実態や、水蒸気改質・グリーン水素のコスト的限界を詳述し、水素政策への批判的論拠を強化した。あわせて実質賃金の連続減少月数など経済データも最新値に更新された。

第5版は、第4版から約1年ぶりの大幅拡充版。第7次エネルギー基本計画の閣議決定（2025年2月）やトランプ政権復帰・パリ協定再離脱など国内外の激変を受けた大幅な拡充。現状認識のI章に「脱炭素は世界の潮流ではない」「世界は低炭素へ回帰」の2節を新設。原子力章（II.2）を7節から13節へ大幅拡充し、放射線リスク・廃棄物処理・ウラン資源・研究開発体制など論点を網羅的に強化。水素章（II.6）では「挫折の憂き目に遭うグリーン水素構想」を追加。気候変動章（II.10）も9節から13節へ拡充し、温暖化の自然変動要因や気候科学への批判的論点を新設した。

第6版では、現状認識のI章を大幅に再編した。従来の5節構成（I.1〜I.5）を3つのグループ（I.1「顕在化する脱炭素政策の弊害」、I.2「人為的温暖化論の社会学」、I.3「世界的に後退する脱炭素政策」）に整理し直し、特にI.2として「正義の危うさ」「政治の危険性」「科学的権威の非絶対性」の3節を新設。戦前日本の歴史的事例を引きながら、脱炭素イデオロギーの社会的・政治的危険性を論じる章を加えたことが最大の変更点。政策提言のII章以降の構成は第5版（改訂）を維持しつつ、各所のデータを2025年夏時点の最新値に更新した。

This book aims to systematically construct a measurement framework for capital stock and capital services in order to reexamine the relationship between capital accumulation and productivity in the Japanese economy. In conventional national accounts, capital measurement has primarily been based on asset classifications, without a clear linkage to production activities. The book develops a time-series fixed capital stock matrix that integrates production and capital accumulation, providing a consistent framework to capture capital formation and production activities. Based on this framework, depreciation rates are estimated by asset type—including residential structures, transportation equipment, and social infrastructure—using methods such as multi-benchmark approaches and evidence from used-asset markets. These estimates are used to construct consistent long-term time series. In addition, the book formulates the price of capital services by explicitly incorporating institutional factors, including Japan’s asset taxation and income taxation systems. This framework enables a unified treatment of the process from production to capital accumulation and to the input of capital services, allowing for a comprehensive measurement of capital input that includes land and inventories. On this basis, the book empirically analyzes the relationships among capital input, capital productivity, and total factor productivity (TFP). In particular, it demonstrates that the inclusion or exclusion of land leads to systematic differences in the measured rates of return to capital, capital input, and TFP growth. The results confirm that the measurement of capital input and the treatment of institutional factors have substantial effects on productivity assessment, highlighting the importance of improving capital measurement in growth accounting. By integrating production, accumulation, and capital service input, the book provides an empirical foundation for capital measurement and contributes to the methodological basis of long-term economic growth analysis.

This chapter aims to systematically evaluate the economic impacts of climate change mitigation policies on the Japanese economy through a comparative analysis based on multiple economic models. Climate policies affect household real income and firms’ production costs directly through increases in energy prices, while also generating indirect effects via investment behavior and technological progress. Therefore, an integrated assessment within an interdependent economic framework is essential. The chapter first presents an analytical framework based on input–output tables and general equilibrium models, and then compares a set of policy scenarios corresponding to different emission reduction targets, examining their impacts on macroeconomic performance, industrial structure, and households. Particular attention is given to the case of Japan, where marginal abatement costs are relatively high, by explicitly analyzing the role of combining domestic measures with the use of international emission credits in mitigating economic burdens. The results indicate that under relatively moderate reduction targets, economic growth and mitigation can be compatible through expanded investment and improvements in energy efficiency. In contrast, stringent targets associated with high carbon prices lead to significant declines in real income and increased economic burdens. Although some income-buffering effects through capital accumulation are observed, discontinuous and structural changes—such as the relocation of firms abroad and the emergence of new industries—are not fully captured within the modeling framework. These findings underscore the importance of interpreting model-based policy evaluations with careful attention to underlying assumptions and uncertainties. The chapter highlights the need for feasible medium-term targets and well-designed international policy frameworks, while emphasizing that, in the long run, technological innovation is essential for reducing global marginal abatement costs.

This volume aims to reconstruct the empirical foundation of economic analysis by systematically organizing and presenting a comprehensive database on production and factor inputs in Japan. Against the backdrop of structural changes in the global economy—driven by technological innovation, demographic shifts, and environmental constraints—the need to reexamine economic systems based on accurate empirical observation has become increasingly important. The database developed in this study maintains consistency with official statistics, including the System of National Accounts and input–output tables, while providing newly estimated input–output tables for 43 industrial sectors covering the period from 1960 to 1992, along with corresponding price deflators. In addition, the volume constructs detailed time-series data on factor inputs. Labor input is measured through a cross-classified dataset by industry, gender, age, occupation, and educational attainment, including employment, working hours, and wage rates. Capital input is estimated through a fixed capital matrix that cross-classifies 78 categories of capital goods and industries, covering both investment flows and accumulated capital stocks. These integrated datasets form a core component of the economic databank envisioned by the research group and provide a consistent empirical basis for analyzing production, factor inputs, and structural change in the Japanese economy.

This paper examines the institutional weaknesses in Japan’s information infrastructure revealed by the Great East Japan Earthquake and proposes a new statistical framework to support reconstruction policy and long-term disaster risk management. The disaster exposed significant information asymmetries and delays in risk communication by government and media institutions, highlighting structural deficiencies in the evaluation and disclosure of disaster-related risks. The study argues that conventional macroeconomic indicators such as GDP and capital stock are insufficient for assessing the economic impact of disasters or the progress of reconstruction. Instead, it proposes the development of “disaster accounts,” an integrated statistical system designed to quantify social losses and regional vulnerability associated with disasters. By linking economic accounts with geographic information and detailed attributes of infrastructure, population, and productive assets, the framework would allow the systematic measurement of functional losses, evacuation costs, environmental damage, and other disaster-related impacts. The paper also discusses the need for a national asset registry for infrastructure and standardized statistical concepts to ensure transparency and comparability. Establishing such an information infrastructure is essential for evidence-based reconstruction policies and for strengthening long-term societal resilience to catastrophic risks.