Alvin Toffler: A Foreigner Who Visited the Juku

2016/10/10

News of the death of American futurist Alvin Toffler swept across the globe. He reportedly passed away at his home in Los Angeles on June 27, 2016, at the age of 87.

There was a young woman working in Singapore who was troubled when asked, "Why is Japan's economic growth rate so low?" For the past 20 to 30 years, Japan's economic growth has been stagnant compared to other countries. Everyone, not just Japanese people, wants to know the cause, but Alvin Toffler had already issued a warning.

Modern society has moved through the agricultural society of the past and the subsequent industrial society to what is now a post-industrial society. This is an information society where knowledge is the undercurrent, and unlike the era of mass production, it is a diversified society. However, Toffler argued that although Japan's reality is evolving, it is becoming outdated because it remains bound by the politics, philosophy, and systems of the old-fashioned Japanese-style industrial society.

Going back in time, Keio University awarded an honorary doctorate to Dr. Toffler in 1990. Toffler rose to prominence as a journalist and, through active writing, had already been awarded honorary doctorates from several leading American universities. He published "Future Shock" in 1970, "The Third Wave" in 1980, "Powershift" in 1990, and "Revolutionary Wealth" in 2006. All of these became massive bestsellers and generated a significant response. He was particularly interested in Japanese society and culture, and he expressed valuable opinions on trade friction issues between Japan and the U.S., as well as on Japanese politics, economy, and culture.

Dr. Toffler was invited to a degree conferral ceremony on November 30, 1990, and at the same time, a commemorative lecture titled "Japan in the Powershift Era" was held on a grand scale in Room 518 of the West School Building. Upon the publication of the Japanese translation of "Powershift," he spoke extensively about its contents. The full translation was published in the March 1991 issue of Mita-hyoron (official monthly journal published by Keio University Press). At the time, the author was in the position of welcoming the Tofflers as the Dean of the Faculty of Business and Commerce.

Toffler reportedly visited Japan more than 50 times. He said he often went to Akihabara when he visited. He made numerous recommendations regarding Japan, and according to his final major work, "Revolutionary Wealth," he made the following points.

In Japan, resistance to the "Third Wave" (the information and communications society) remains strong. While the economy and technology tend to globalize easily, regulations and institutions tend to lag behind. In particular, former executives of large corporations, long-serving bureaucrats, and teachers who use the same teaching materials are groups to watch out for.

In Japan, the "lifetime employment system" and "keiretsu" (business groups) are still alive and well. These are relics of the mass production era and prevent small businesses from developing intangible products. Furthermore, venture companies do not grow. Even if there is a shortage of venture capital, banks will not lend money. As a result, there are few startups in the telecommunications industry. Although the acquisition of information technology patents in Japan is skyrocketing, it is being hindered by small, sector-specific regulations that resemble the smokestacks of the industrial society era.

Overall, decision-making in Japan is slow. Also, the division of labor between men and women is slow to improve. Furthermore, the response to the wave of aging is lagging. First of all, it is strange to regard the elderly as unproductive. According to Toffler's "prosumer" theory, volunteers are also fine producers and form a segment of the working population. Furthermore, a foreign workforce will be essential to meet the demand for elderly care.

Toffler and his wife quote from The Economist: "Are there any industries in Japan other than manufacturing that are excellent? High domestic transportation costs hinder the development of logistics, travel, and tourism. The energy and telecommunications industries have high business costs because there is no competition. Professional services such as law and accounting are still rigid. Medical care facing an aging population has extremely low productivity from an international perspective." In other words, outside of manufacturing, the engine of economic operation is not rotating sufficiently due to protectionist policies in line with national policy. ("Revolutionary Wealth," p. 236)

Alvin Toffler was born in New York in 1928 and graduated from New York University in 1949. His wife, Heidi, was a comrade he met at university. The two did not go on to graduate school; they married and moved to the American Midwest. Then, surprisingly, the two began working in factories. Heidi became a worker in an aluminum foundry, and Alvin experienced blue-collar work, starting as a welder. They worked in the midst of mass production in factories and also experienced unemployment. This experience is cited in their subsequent writings and has played a major role in helping readers understand their work. Meanwhile, Heidi was active as a labor union official, and Alvin also wrote for union newspapers. Five years later, they moved to Washington, where he engaged in writing and lecturing for Fortune magazine and other publications. His background is that of a journalist.

Toffler subsequently published one book after another, but since he did not hold a position at a university, he was not bound by any academic field and was called a futurist by some. On the other hand, the field of futurology itself seems to be rejected by traditionalists who believe that the future of the flow of history cannot be predicted.

What solidified Toffler's reputation as a futurist was "The Third Wave," published in 1980. it attracted attention for predicting the information society 20 years before the emergence of the Internet. Toffler's four major works are as follows. The Japanese translations were published in the same year as the original works.

There are likely very few people in history who have frequently published such major works with a consistent vision, which were then translated into many languages and widely read. However, to be precise, these were not the achievements of Alvin Toffler alone. He emphasized this himself, and his final work, "Revolutionary Wealth," was co-authored with his wife, Heidi.

Heidi and Alvin married in 1950 after graduating from university. The experience of becoming blue-collar factory workers was likely a choice they made together. Even after Alvin moved into journalism, Heidi was likely a good advisor. Alvin wrote that he received Heidi's cooperation in his subsequent writing activities, but because she adamantly refused, he did not list her as a co-author. Heidi is listed as Alvin's co-author only for two other books and their later work, "Revolutionary Wealth."

I only knew the couple for a single day when they visited the Juku in 1990, but I remember Alvin stating in his lecture that "Powershift" was a collaborative effort with Heidi, and he always publicly said "we" instead of "I." I also felt envious seeing how the wife was always gently protected.

In writing, glory and responsibility are clearly divided depending on whether a work is single-authored or co-authored, but in Toffler's case, what was the actual relationship? This is only speculation, but having lived and debated together since their student days, they were perhaps like two parts of a single soul. Perhaps Alvin's ideas and their systematization were constantly refined and nurtured through his interactions with Heidi. Not only did their relationship as a couple last for a long period of 66 years, but their communal relationship is immeasurable.

Furthermore, I must mention their only daughter, Karen, who also supported Toffler. She appears to have been a powerful assistant in finishing Toffler's works, but she fought a difficult illness for 10 years and passed away in 2000 at the young age of 46. One can only imagine the depth of the couple's grief. Toffler stated that "Revolutionary Wealth," published in 2006, was significantly delayed because of this.

In 1996, the Tofflers established a business consulting firm called Toffler Associates, which served as a base for communicating their ideas and strategies to the world. In 2010, they announced future predictions through the year 2050. They made 40 predictions divided into politics, technology, society, economy, and the environment.

For example, there are many interesting points, such as the growing importance of global religious trends and the increasing role of corporations as "connectors." Alvin's obituary was announced from this organization.

What is important for the coming era: In the industrial society of the "Second Wave," the economy was central. Culture, religion, and art were secondary. In the knowledge-centered world of the information society of the "Third Wave," technology and the economy will be relegated to the status of being parts of a system. Values and ethics will take center stage and face the increasing wealth. Individuals, corporations, organizations, and governments are all facing rapid changes toward the future.