Panel Discussion: The Power of "Words" to Prepare for Natural Disasters

Thank you all for joining me today. Next year, in January 2025, we will mark the 30th anniversary of the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake, and it will also be exactly one year since the recent Noto Peninsula Earthquake. Furthermore, Japan is struck by typhoons and heavy rain damage almost every year. With this in mind, I would like to discuss the evolution of disaster prevention education and communication over the past 30 years, as well as the challenges that lie ahead.

Our first theme is disaster prevention education and risk communication. To begin, I'd like to provide a brief introduction.

Drawing on lessons from events like the Isewan Typhoon (1959), disaster prevention once primarily meant developing hardware. This typhoon spurred the creation of laws, and the focus was on building large-scale infrastructure, such as reinforcing riverbanks with concrete and constructing seawalls.

After that, Japan entered a period of high economic growth. Coincidentally, during this time, there were no major earthquakes or typhoons, which led many to believe that we had somehow managed to control natural disasters.

Then, in 1995, the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake struck, causing immense devastation and the loss of 6,434 lives.

From that point on, seismic retrofitting progressed based on the importance of earthquake-resistant building standards, and disaster prevention education also advanced. While many believe that disaster prevention education truly took off after the Great East Japan Earthquake (2011), its importance was actually highlighted by the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake. However, at the time, its promotion was regionally uneven and did not become a nationwide movement, with the exception of areas like Kobe, Shizuoka, and the Sanriku region.

Gradually, due to Japan's financial situation, the focus shifted from hardware development to software measures. Furthermore, since the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake, the Heisei and Reiwa eras have seen frequent earthquake disasters. These include the Chuetsu Earthquake (2004), the Chuetsu Offshore Earthquake (2007), the Great East Japan Earthquake, the Kumamoto Earthquake (2016), and multiple Noto Peninsula earthquakes (2024 and others).

From a school safety perspective, the Great East Japan Earthquake was distinctive because it occurred while schools were under administrative supervision. Major earthquakes happening during school hours are not very common. As you may recall, the decisions made by many schools in the Sanriku region, such as in Kamaishi City, Iwate Prefecture, and the contrasting case of Okawa Elementary School, led to a rapid integration and advancement of disaster prevention education within schools.

A review by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology over the past decade shows that the current state of disaster prevention education is not defined by regional disparities, but rather by a significant gap between schools that have committed to and seriously implemented it and those that have continued with a more conventional, "business-as-usual" approach.

In this context, Tosashimizu City faced a new, much larger tsunami damage estimate after the Great East Japan Earthquake. The projected height, which was 15 meters until 2011, more than doubled to 34 meters in the Cabinet Office's new 2012 estimate. It was around that time that Tosashimizu City reached out to us. I have been involved in disaster prevention education in Tosashimizu since the 2013 fiscal year, which is when I came to SFC.

Mr. Okada, could you please tell us about the initiatives you have undertaken so far, including the challenges?

As you mentioned, in response to the Great East Japan Earthquake, momentum grew in Kochi Prefecture to prepare for the Nankai Trough Earthquake. Until then, the city's General Affairs Division was responsible for disaster prevention, but in 2013, the Crisis Management Division was established as an independent agency dedicated to disaster prevention, and we have been actively working on it ever since. I was a member of the launch team, and we have been receiving guidance from Ms. Ohki for 12 years now.

Under the motto "Eliminate the Unforeseen," the Crisis Management Division has pursued hardware development as one pillar, while simultaneously promoting the software measure of disaster prevention education to raise residents' awareness. With Ms. Ohki's help, we have been actively promoting disaster prevention education in the city's elementary and junior high schools.

A phrase that often came up when I had a drink with Ms. Ohki after a training session was, "When these children become adults, Tosashimizu City will change."

Disaster prevention education began in each elementary and junior high school in the city in 2013. In particular, starting in 2017 at Shimizu Junior High School, we began an educational program using "Disaster Prevention Novels" with the aim of getting students to think of encountering a disaster as a personal matter. When they presented skits based on a hypothetical scenario of them experiencing the Nankai Trough Earthquake, the response was, "This is great," and the practice has been continued in subsequent years.

We make sure that the Disaster Prevention Novels always end with a happy ending (the creation of a bright future). I think this is a really good thing. When students imagine a future that has not yet happened in a more realistic way and turn it into an 800-character story, it incorporates their unique sensibilities, such as the smell when the disaster occurs or the scenery appearing gray, making it a very good learning experience.

A Japanese language teacher at Shimizu Junior High School got involved, making the "Disaster Prevention Novels" more polished as literary works. As a government agency, I participated by sowing the seeds of disaster prevention knowledge. From Keio University, Ms. Ohki and students from her lab joined as a research institution, creating surveys, verifying the effects, and disseminating the results nationwide.

Before structuring the "Disaster Prevention Novels," we first held a training session for faculty and staff. To help the teachers convey the importance of disaster prevention to the children, the Crisis Management Division visited and held a study session on the damage estimates for Tosashimizu City. After that, we had them appoint a disaster prevention leader in each class, and during the summer vacation, they participated in the shelter management game HUG as part of a disaster prevention training session to help them imagine what it would be like to become a shelter.

Then, the children discussed what kind of roles would be needed to operate Shimizu Junior High School as a shelter. The children's ideas were amazing; they came up with a special role, the "hole-digging team," because there would be garbage and filth. These children actually experienced digging holes in the schoolyard, learning while breaking a sweat.

Meanwhile, the idea emerged for junior high school students who had learned about disaster prevention to visit their former elementary schools and give outreach lessons. Under the name "Disaster Prevention Evangelists," the children took on the role of teaching.

The "Disaster Prevention Novels" also became a form of career education for the junior high school students. The children involved in their creation began to think, "I want to be a doctor in the future," "I want to be a nurse," or "I want to build earthquake-resistant houses," which I think was a really wonderful outcome. Ms. Ohki verified this and shared it nationwide, and in 2019, we were able to receive the Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology Award.

Starting in 2021, this developed into the "National 'Disaster Prevention Novel' Exchange Meeting," connecting various schools across the country that are working on "Disaster Prevention Novels." It was also included in a proposal by the Cabinet Office's disaster management section titled "Realizing a New Era of Disaster Prevention Education." I believe that the "Disaster Prevention Novel," which started in a rural area of Kochi Prefecture, has become an educational model.

On a personal note, my son has a hearing impairment and cannot hear any sound at all, but with training from a young age, he can hear with a cochlear implant. He wrote a "Disaster Prevention Novel" in his second year of junior high school from the perspective of a child with a disability, and the Ohki lab used it as a basis for their research.

Also, as a byproduct of the "Disaster Prevention Novels," SFC students living in the city now send me LINE messages out of concern whenever there is a typhoon or earthquake in Tosashimizu City. I am truly grateful that people who think of Tosashimizu have been nurtured even in the city.

Thank you. Tosashimizu is said to be the city with the longest travel time from Tokyo, making a same-day trip impossible, so a drinking party is always part of the package. The people of Shimizu often said that drinking parties are good places because things get decided in a positive atmosphere (laughs).

Mr. Yajima, you once visited to cover the "Disaster Prevention Novel" initiative. At that time, I said, "Mr. Yajima, you should write one too," and after the broadcast, you actually wrote one and sent it to Shimizu Junior High School, didn't you?

Yes. Six years ago, in 2018, when I visited Tosashimizu to feature the junior high school students' Disaster Prevention Novel initiative on a Nippon TV news program, Ms. Ohki encouraged me, and I also wrote a Disaster Prevention Novel. The scenario was that a Nankai Trough megaquake occurred, and I was reporting from a studio in Tokyo. A news helicopter had arrived over Tosashimizu, but since there was no announcer on board, my novel was about me providing live commentary from Tokyo.

In fact, when the Nankai Trough Earthquake Extra Information was issued for the Hyuga-nada earthquake on August 8 of this year, I was actually in the studio responding. A news helicopter sent aerial footage of Tosashimizu. So, from the studio in Tokyo, I reported, "The aerial footage on the screen is of Tosashimizu. It is a port town with very high disaster prevention awareness. A tsunami advisory has been issued, so it appears that fishing boats are moored in the harbor and people are staying away from the sea."

Is that so? This is the first I'm hearing of it, and my heart is pounding.

Mr. Saito, Keio Yokohama Elementary School has, of course, conducted general evacuation drills as an elementary school, and the school building is built to the latest earthquake-resistant standards, ensuring excellent safety. However, you began implementing software-based disaster prevention education this year. With the prospect of an earthquake directly under the capital, there are different challenges compared to public schools, as most of your students commute by train, even though it's an elementary school.

What led you to the decision that you needed to implement disaster prevention education?

Keio Yokohama Elementary School opened in April 2013, two years after the Great East Japan Earthquake. In that sense, the aftershocks of the earthquake were still felt, so I believe we started with sufficient disaster prevention measures in terms of hardware, such as the school building's construction, and a very high level of disaster prevention awareness in terms of software.

It's true that the fact that the 3/11 earthquake occurred while schools were in session was a huge factor. I was the homeroom teacher for the first graduating class when the school opened, and then for the third graduating class two years later. The students from that time had experienced the Great East Japan Earthquake, albeit as young children, so when I talked about it in class, the horror of it was conveyed.

However, the students of the last few years were, of course, not yet born at the time of the earthquake, so even when I speak earnestly, it doesn't get through to them properly. In some cases, they interpret it as a joke. I think this gap is huge, even though it's only been 12 years. While I have this sense that it's hard to get the message across, we also had the issue of having conducted evacuation drills formally for a long time.

Last year, I came across Ms. Ohki's talk, and it gave me a hint that by reviewing our past evacuation drills, we might be able to see how we should respond in a real earthquake. Since just talking about earthquakes and disaster prevention in textbooks doesn't really get through, I thought it was important for the children to experience, in a sense, the fear within the evacuation drill and learn how to deal with it themselves.

This drill also changes the mindset of the teachers. It's not about how quickly they can line up the students within a set time, but about learning within the drill to be able to respond to unexpected situations. To that end, we had Ms. Ohki conduct a training session for teachers in September. After the teachers themselves experienced a new form of evacuation drill, we conducted an evacuation drill for the students two weeks later.

So, until now, after getting under their desks, everyone would go to the school grounds. You changed that to a scenario with multiple aftershocks, where they would wait in the classroom and assess whether there were any injuries.

In the typical evacuation drills we've done so far, each teacher would lead their students to evacuate to the schoolyard, gather everyone on the grounds for a headcount, and once safety was confirmed, we would return to the classroom and finish. Therefore, evacuation drills were canceled if it rained, but of course, a real earthquake can happen in any weather, and I had always wondered if we would really evacuate outside in that situation.

This time, we made it a drill where we made the decision "not to evacuate outside" amidst continuing aftershocks. For the students, it was their first experience with continuous earthquake alarms, but I think they handled it well, without joking around or being scared.

I felt that the children were able to experience and understand that if so many aftershocks were occurring, it was better to stay inside the classroom and get under their desks.

What left an impression on me was that since there were no real injuries, the teachers had some downtime. During that time, they each spontaneously shared stories about the earthquake, saying things like, "When I was X years old, the Great East Japan Earthquake happened."

Hearing about their experiences in an atmosphere where the children were perfectly receptive to such stories carries a different weight. I learned that it's also important for drills to become that kind of time.

So far, we've been talking about earthquakes, but now I'd like to ask Mr. Miyamoto about storms and floods. Storms and floods have become extremely frequent, and some meteorologists say, "I didn't expect the effects of global warming to appear this quickly."

What is your sense of this, Mr. Miyamoto? Also, I don't think the term "linear precipitation zone" existed in the past. I would appreciate it if you could tell us about that.

I think most people who specialize in meteorology share the sentiment Ms. Ohki mentioned. I have particularly studied typhoons, and my impression is that in recent years, almost every year, a typhoon strong enough to cause considerable damage somewhere makes landfall.

Every time a typhoon approaches, we have a briefing among experts. The conversation usually turns to "this one might be bad too," and when we consider the worst-case scenario in future predictions, it often makes us break out in a cold sweat.

Another point is about linear precipitation zones. As you said, this is a phenomenon that has only recently been defined as a term. It has existed before, but it wasn't widely recognized. However, recent studies have shown that linear precipitation zones are responsible for two-thirds of the significant heavy rainfall events not caused by typhoons.

Why linear precipitation zones are increasing is a subject for future research, but I think everyone in Japan has a gut feeling that torrential downpours are on the rise. Academically, one of the causes is linear precipitation zones, and statistics show that the number of heavy rain events is increasing.

So, researchers are all thinking about what to do. How to act before and after a torrential downpour is also extremely important, and it becomes crucial to be able to provide the optimal information for those actions.

It's not easy, but weather can be predicted. We are working to leverage that advantage to deliver the most accurate forecast information to everyone. However, phenomena that occur locally in a short period of time, like linear precipitation zones, are extremely difficult to predict, and the current prediction accuracy of the Japan Meteorological Agency is not very good.

Regarding typhoons, is it correct to understand that it's not that more of them, including small ones, are forming, but that each one is becoming larger?

As a trend, the number of typhoons that form each year has not actually changed much, and there are even predictions that it may decrease. On the other hand, the proportion of strong typhoons is expected to increase. In other words, it is thought that once a typhoon forms, it will generally become strong and have a long lifespan.

One more thing, has there been a change in their paths? For example, I think they used to make landfall frequently in places like Miyazaki or Tosashimizu, but recently, there have been forecasts of them coming directly to Tokyo. Is that also an effect of global warming?

It's quite possible that global warming affects their paths. To use an analogy, a typhoon itself is like a leaf floating in a river. It doesn't have its own will; it's carried along in the direction the river flows, so it's just spinning as it moves with the current.

With global warming, the direction of the river's flow may change, so the destination of the typhoon may also deviate from its traditional course.

Now, Mr. Yajima, as someone on the front lines of reporting, you have to convey everything from earthquakes and tsunamis to typhoons and floods. How does the media call for disaster prevention and evacuation?

I work as both an announcer and a member of the news bureau, and I'm in charge of disaster prevention reporting. I joined the company in April 1995, so the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake occurred three months before I started. Watching the daily broadcasts of the Hanshin-Awaji earthquake disaster on TV, I felt the weight of responsibility, thinking, "Am I really stepping into a world that reports such harsh realities?"

However, the history of "disaster prevention reporting" at Nippon TV is actually short, having only started 13 years ago. In other words, until March 11, 2011, it wasn't "disaster prevention reporting" but "disaster reporting," which focused on conveying the damage that had occurred. For example, our company's reporting content during disasters was to communicate the scale of the damage, such as "how many people died, how many were injured, how many houses were washed away."

I was in charge of the initial response immediately after the Great East Japan Earthquake occurred, but at that time, we hadn't even decided on a policy of whether to prioritize conveying seismic intensity information or the major tsunami warning. Seismic intensity is past information, while a major tsunami warning is a warning for the future. In retrospect, it's clear that the major tsunami warning was more important, but at the time, we were repeating the names of places with a seismic intensity of 7, and instead of calling out to the Tohoku coast where the major tsunami warning was issued, we were reporting extensively on a fire in Odaiba.

Triggered by 3/11, our company established "life-saving reporting" as our major policy during disasters, and we made a major shift to broadcasting content that calls for action to prevent damage from occurring. Today, when a disaster occurs, announcers call for evacuation, but all of this is based on the lessons learned from 3/11.

And now, Nippon TV's disaster prevention reporting is calling out with the theme "Let's evacuate before XX happens." For example, "Let's evacuate before it shakes again," "Let's evacuate before the tsunami comes," "Let's evacuate before the river floods," and "Let's evacuate before the dam makes an emergency release." Our stance is to evacuate now because it will be too late after the damage has occurred.

Our company also has a concept for disaster prevention reporting called the "Fire! Run! theory." It is said that when people are told, "Fire! Run!" they will run. "Fire!" is a word that describes an occurring phenomenon, so it's "science" information. On the other hand, "Run!" is a word that prompts human action, so it's "social studies" information. When "Fire!" and "Run!"—that is, "science" and "social studies"—are paired, people will evacuate.

On the other hand, people won't evacuate just by being told "Fire!" This is because even though they understand that a fire is happening, they think it's a fire that doesn't concern them. Similarly, if they are only told "Run!" they still won't evacuate. This is because they don't know the reason why they need to run.

We practice this "Fire! Run! theory" in our disaster prevention reporting calls. For example, during a tsunami, instead of just making a social studies call like "Please evacuate to high ground," we also provide science information such as "Less than 10 minutes until the estimated arrival time" or "The first wave has already been observed in the neighboring prefecture," thereby showing the reason why they must evacuate.

Similarly, during floods, instead of just saying "An evacuation order has been issued, so let's evacuate," we display the Japan Meteorological Agency's Kikikuru (hazard map) and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism's "River Disaster Prevention Information" on the screen, and we strive to link social studies information with science information by saying things like "The risk of landslides and floods is worsening."

In such situations, the weapons of a TV station include footage from helicopters and information cameras. By showing such footage and expressing a sense of crisis with statements like "The river is on the verge of overflowing. You won't be able to escape after it floods," we emphasize the weight of the evacuation orders issued by municipalities. Municipalities do not issue evacuation information recklessly. Therefore, if we can use TV footage to explain the reasons why an evacuation order has been issued, I believe it will lead to residents evacuating.

I see there is indeed a difference between disaster reporting and disaster prevention reporting. I felt that there is a great deal of thought behind which words to choose when communicating to an unspecified large number of people so that the recipients can take action.

Also, immediately after a disaster strikes, we report on the damage, such as "how many households have no water" or "how many households have no power." However, as the situation moves to phase two, we are conscious of switching the theme of our broadcast content from "damage information" to "recovery and reconstruction information," such as "You can get water here" or "You can charge your mobile phone here."

You've spoken quite in-depth about how to communicate a crisis. If you have anything to add, please do.

What I am careful about when calling for action during storms and floods is to communicate it in a "three-story" structure of "past," "present," and "future."

For example, for landslides and floods, I first report on the "past." I convey the precipitation over the past 24 hours, the soil water index, and the basin rainfall index to explain that the ground is on the verge of collapsing or the river is about to overflow due to the rain that has already fallen. I also use analogies like "the rainfall since the beginning has reached X times the average for a month" to communicate the danger posed by the heavy rain that has already fallen.

Next, I report on the "present." For example, I show live footage from an information camera and provide commentary like, "This is the current situation in XX City. It is raining heavily." I also show the rain cloud radar and explain, "It seems that torrential rain of 80 millimeters per hour or more is falling." This creates a two-story structure of "past" and "present." In other words, by layering the fact that it is still raining on top of the large amount of preceding rainfall, the seriousness of the situation is conveyed.

Furthermore, on top of these two stories, I add a third story, the "future." For example, I add the future forecast by saying, "It is predicted that 200 millimeters of rain will fall in the next 24 hours until noon tomorrow, and another 300 millimeters in the 24 hours after that."

By emphasizing that the danger level increases over time—past, present, and future—we can help people understand why they need to evacuate immediately.

On the other hand, since the Noto Peninsula Earthquake, there has been a trend of praising announcers' use of a commanding tone, but I think that's wrong. A commanding tone may sound like strong words, but it's just a pre-written script and doesn't reflect the actual level of danger. I believe that a real call to action is to convey the actual sense of crisis using images and numbers.

I was listening with admiration to Mr. Yajima's persuasive talk. If major media outlets organize and broadcast news with past and present information, viewers can grasp the situation and imagine how bad it could get. Adding future predictions like precipitation amounts would further convey the sense of crisis.

As a researcher, I had the image of emphasizing future prediction information, but I felt that it is just as important to show how bad the past situation has been in a precise and easy-to-understand way.

From the perspective of protecting children's lives, future prediction is indeed very important, and when it comes to storms and floods, it's a great help that short-term, intense downpours can now be predicted to some extent. A decade or so ago, the level of prediction accuracy was low, and the information didn't reach us, so I don't think we could have responded.

Although there is room for improvement in terms of accuracy, we are now receiving information that says, "It's going to get bad ahead," to some extent. This has led to several situations this year where we had to decide whether to send students home. The ability to make decisions like holding students back for a while even after the school dismissal time is thanks to the improved accuracy of future predictions and to everyone who disseminates the information.

I'm very happy that you find the weather information useful. Is there anything else you wish it could do better?

Perhaps the time prediction for rainfall. For example, when it looks like a downpour is approaching on the screen, I think about sending the students home before it hits, but then when I look at the data again, the display has changed. I know it's difficult, but I hope the accuracy of minute-by-minute passage predictions will improve further.

Also, one more thing, strong winds can be quite a problem for elementary school students, so it would be great if we could know how strong the wind will be at different times of the day, just like with rain.

Mr. Okada, what is your perspective from an administrative standpoint?

Speaking of the current situation in rural areas with a declining birthrate and aging population, the lack of information that the elderly can access is a problem. For example, many do not own smartphones. In that context, they rely on the disaster management administrative radio for judgment, but in reality, the elderly get most of their information from television. Moreover, they sometimes mistake information about Kyushu being broadcast on TV for what is happening in Tosashimizu City right now. This creates a situation where an information gap emerges between generations.

I believe that how we communicate with the elderly will be the key.

Mr. Yajima, I imagine television is conscious of the elderly.

It's true that getting those who are vulnerable to disasters to evacuate first is of utmost importance, but the current situation is that we are not able to broadcast this sufficiently. Below the heavy rain warning level 4 evacuation order, there is the evacuation for the elderly and others (level 3). We know it's important, but we are not able to cover it as extensively in our broadcasts as we do for the most urgent emergency safety assurance (level 5). On the other hand, our data broadcasting service displays the evacuation information issued for your municipality, so you can also check if an evacuation for the elderly and others has been issued.

So at level 3, it doesn't at least get an L-shaped screen overlay, right?

That's right. I don't know how other stations handle it, but we display the L-shaped overlay when a large-scale disaster occurs. Accurately conveying the evacuation for the elderly and others on terrestrial broadcasting is one of the future challenges for disaster prevention reporting.

Regarding typhoon information, you sometimes hear the words "large and very strong," but this is an indicator based on wind strength. This August, Typhoon No. 10 brought record-breaking heavy rain over a wide area. At that time, a "special typhoon warning" was temporarily issued for Typhoon No. 10 based on the wind indicator, and the sense of crisis heightened at once. However, didn't a sense of complacency set in the moment the wind weakened and it was no longer a special warning-class typhoon? Also, I have the impression that the sense of crisis further decreased when the storm warning area disappeared. After that, Typhoon No. 10 became a tropical depression, but it still had the potential for heavy rain, so it brought record-breaking heavy rain to a wide area.

While indicators based on wind are important, I'm struggling with whether there isn't a way to communicate that can also raise the level of caution regarding rain.

As you said, all typhoon indicators are based on wind. However, as the term "rain typhoon" suggests, there are types that bring heavy rain even if the wind is not that strong, and during the recent Typhoon No. 10 of 2024, it rained heavily even quite far from the typhoon's center. A definition based only on wind cannot convey the danger, so there is certainly room for thought here.

As with other weather phenomena, it is not possible to predict when and where it will rain heavily in a typhoon without a fairly high degree of accuracy. Currently, we are in an era where weather forecasts can also predict rain, and I think the accuracy of rain prediction for typhoons is also getting relatively good, but there is no definitive indicator yet. Therefore, I think this is a meaningful idea.

It's also quite common for it to rain heavily when you thought the typhoon was still far to the south. Due to global warming, it has become common for a typhoon to act as an igniter with just a small trigger, causing it to rain more and more even when it's far away.

Now, let's return to the topic of earthquakes. This summer, the Nankai Trough Earthquake Extra Information (Megaquake Advisory) was issued for the first time, and I believe Tosashimizu City faced it head-on. I will briefly explain what this extra information is.

The source region of the Nankai Trough Earthquake was previously assumed to be the area from Shizuoka Prefecture to Kochi Prefecture, but after 3/11, we began to consider a slightly wider range, extending to off the coast of Miyazaki Prefecture. Historically, it has occurred in cycles of 90 to 150 years, and the estimate from seismology is that if an earthquake occurs where everything is linked, it will have a maximum magnitude of 9.1. There are cases where this entire region is linked and occurs simultaneously, and cases where only the Tokai and Tonankai regions occur simultaneously, followed by an earthquake off the coast of Kochi Prefecture.

We have come to understand that earthquakes generally start from the east and then occur in the west, so if a large earthquake occurs in Shizuoka or Wakayama, there is a high probability that the next one will occur in the direction of Kochi Prefecture. At that time, it would be a problem if the firefighters from Kochi were going to help in Wakayama, so it was decided that the people of Kochi should be informed of the high probability of a major earthquake occurring, which led to the creation of the Nankai Trough Earthquake Extra Information.

However, in reality, we don't know when the earthquake will occur. Historically, there have been cases where it occurred three years after the one in Wakayama, and cases where it came a day and a half later. So, if you ask whether we should wait for an earthquake for three years, that's difficult. Since it's not possible to scientifically determine how long people should remain on alert, the extra information was created in the form of "let's be on alert for one week for now," based on the idea that people can probably stay on alert for about a week.

The case of a Nankai Trough earthquake starting from Hyuga-nada is not well known, but it was decided by the government to issue alerts in ranked versions—a warning version and an advisory version—with the idea that we should be cautious even when an earthquake occurs nearby. The first case where this extra information was issued was on August 8 of this year, but since it was off the coast of Hyuga-nada, it was an advisory, not a warning.

Municipalities along the Nankai Trough, including Tosashimizu City, have all decided in advance what to do when the extra information is issued. Mr. Okada, what kind of response did you take this time?

We took three responses to the extra information associated with the earthquake off the coast of Hyuga-nada this time. In Tosashimizu City, it was a seismic intensity 1 earthquake, so we first carried out the normal earthquake response. In the midst of that, the Japan Meteorological Agency announced "Nankai Trough Extra Information: Under Investigation," so we responded to that, and about an hour later, "Megaquake Advisory" was announced, so we took our third response.

When the "Megaquake Advisory" was issued, the mayor was actually on a business trip, so there was a debate between the opinion that we should wait for the mayor to return to make a decision and the opinion that the remaining members should evacuate the elderly and others first. It was decided to make a decision while watching the situation in neighboring municipalities, but in Kochi Prefecture, only Nankoku City and Kuroshio Town had opened shelters for the evacuation of the elderly and others at that point.

When the mayor returned, under the judgment that an earthquake was not imminent, it was decided to observe the situation for a day and then decide on opening shelters, as evacuating at night is dangerous. The public was notified of the "Megaquake Advisory" at night via the disaster management administrative radio and area mail, and the decision to open shelters was made the next morning.

A bit of a problem arose there because the media and others were also broadcasting information to "please continue with your daily life as usual." At that time, the community center had events scheduled until noon. When we asked them to stop the events and open a shelter, they said that everyone had already gathered, so they wanted to hold the events until noon, and the shelter ended up opening in the afternoon.

In the end, Tosashimizu City decided to open only one shelter, which was easier to manage, based on the situation in other municipalities. However, the following week was long, and the issue of how to secure relief staff arose. It became clear that not only the shelters but also the crisis management department needed replacements.

The number of evacuees in Tosashimizu City was a total of 80 people over one week. The maximum was 15 people from 10 families per day. The challenges include the problem of staff rotation, and since there was no one with decision-making authority when the department head was absent, there is a discussion about whether a deputy department head should always be appointed.

I believe we must thoroughly verify the Nankai Trough Earthquake Advisory information and organize the issues. It was a good opportunity to identify and review the problems. While we were able to provide peace of mind to the residents by issuing an evacuation for the elderly and others, various problems also came to light.

So you deliberately consolidated to one shelter instead of opening multiple ones. Securing relief staff for even one location during the Obon holiday season is extremely difficult, and if you open all of them, you would need that many more relief staff.

I heard from a municipality that opened multiple shelters that they assigned two people to each shelter and the rotation was decided by the shelter in charge, so some people were on duty for 24 hours, others for 6-hour shifts, and they even had to call on temporary staff.

Mr. Yajima, what are your thoughts on this extra information?

During the extra information on August 8, I was in charge for about five hours from the initial response on the 24-hour news channel "Nittele NEWS24."

Regarding the extra information, we had conducted numerous drills in advance with Nippon TV's affiliate stations in the Nankai Trough region. In addition, the disaster management announcers from NHK and the six commercial broadcasters in Tokyo held joint study sessions across station boundaries about once every two months. In response to the Bungo Channel earthquake in April of this year, which registered a seismic intensity of lower 6, we had also held a study session in advance with instructors from the Cabinet Office and the Japan Meteorological Agency to reconfirm the flow of extra information.

When an earthquake occurs in the assumed source region of the Nankai Trough, two streams of information are issued. One is the real-time information that follows the normal flow of earthquake information, such as block seismic intensity, epicenter information (presence or absence of a tsunami), and municipal seismic intensity.

On the other hand, for the Nankai Trough, another stream of information called extra information is issued. First, if the magnitude is 6.8 or higher, "Under Investigation" is issued. If the subsequent evaluation committee assesses it as M7, "Megaquake Advisory" is issued, and if it's M8, "Megaquake Warning" is issued.

We had confirmed in advance that of the two streams of information—the real-time information and the extra information—the real-time information is more important. This is because a large subsequent earthquake is not guaranteed to occur. More importantly, the shaking from the initial earthquake may have already damaged buildings, and a tsunami may actually be arriving. Therefore, when a large earthquake occurs in the Nankai Trough, the real-time information should be treated with more weight.

During the initial response on August 8, a tsunami advisory was actually issued, so we first thoroughly called for action against the tsunami. At the same time, especially for the people of Miyazaki Prefecture, we conveyed the danger of damaged buildings and potential landslides and called for them to ensure their safety.

Also, the extra information issued this time was a "Megaquake Advisory," not a "Megaquake Warning." Since it was a case where a one-week advance evacuation was not necessary, we also emphasized calling for calm behavior.

However, the words I said to the camera, "Please be careful," became ambiguous as to whether they were heard as an intention of "caution against a subsequent earthquake" for the people of Miyazaki Prefecture, or as a call for "caution regarding the extra information" for the people in the wider Pacific coastal region. The call for the Nankai Trough contains a mix of "two cautions." It is a point of reflection that I was not able to separate them well.

I understand very well. Regarding the extra information, figures have been released showing that there were considerable economic losses, including from people refraining from travel and returning home.

Even more so, I, on the seismology side, want to firmly receive the voices from the field, such as the management of municipal staff and how to balance normal life while opening shelters.

Well, we have discussed various topics, but I believe that storms and floods will become more frequent and severe in the future. As for earthquakes, the time is certainly approaching for the Nankai Trough Earthquake, but an earthquake directly under the capital may come first.

Not only that, but a direct-hit type earthquake of around magnitude 7 can occur anywhere in Japan, so I would like to ask each of you about the challenges and countermeasures.

The first priority for schools is to protect the lives of students, so we need to prepare for that. When we organize by the location of the students, it can be broadly divided into three categories. The first is when they are under school supervision. Next, when they are back at home. And the third is during their commute.

In terms of being under school supervision, it is necessary to make the evacuation drills, which were supervised by Ms. Ohki this time, more realistic. Naturally, we cannot just send students home after a major earthquake, so we need to keep them at school, and we also need to further enhance our stockpiling system.

And how to handle parents picking them up is a very big problem. We have 648 students in the entire school, and it is absolutely impossible to accommodate cars for all of them at once. In early June of last year, there was a day of heavy rain, and for the first time since the school opened, we allowed all third-grade students returning from an overnight trip to be picked up by car, but the entry and exit of cars for just one grade level was at full capacity.

Next is when they are back at home. This year, for the first time, we conducted a drill where we assumed an earthquake had occurred, sent out a safety confirmation email, and had each family reply. We received replies from 76% of the families within about three hours of sending the email. However, some families did not respond. By repeating this every year, I hope we can make it known that the school will contact them in this way when a disaster occurs, and that everyone will respond quickly.

Finally, during the commute. At the time of 3/11, I was working at Keio Yochisha Elementary School, and the lower-grade students were on their way home. Some students returned to the elementary school after the earthquake occurred, while others went home, but some were taken into the care of the general public along the way, and it took until the middle of the night to confirm their safety. This is a major problem for private elementary schools where many students commute by train, as Ms. Ohki mentioned earlier. If students are caught in a disaster during their commute, they may not be able to easily return to school or home. The school must think about how to deal with this problem.

Then, Mr. Okada, please.

First, our region is facing a declining birthrate and aging population, so our voluntary disaster prevention organizations are becoming super-aged, and we are facing the reality that the community's self-help disaster prevention capabilities are weakening.

In that context, how to respond is a question, but as a risk that can be considered depending on the time of day, during school hours, parents are at work, and often only the elderly are in the community. At that time, how should we protect the community? I have heard that there were similar challenges in the Noto Peninsula Earthquake, but there is the challenge of how to contact a community of only elderly people.

On the other hand, our region has only one junior high school, and it is highly likely that there will be only one elementary school soon, so the children will be concentrated in the town. How can these children demonstrate their abilities in the elementary and junior high schools that will become shelters? I think we need knowledge and initiatives to enable them to act as a workforce in the event of a disaster.

To that end, I believe it is our role to enhance disaster prevention education and have each student acquire the ability to do things for themselves. I would be grateful if Ms. Ohki could lend us her strength again.

The declining birthrate and aging population is not just a problem for Tosashimizu City, but a problem that all regions of Japan will face sooner or later, so I hope to create pioneering initiatives from Tosashimizu that can serve as a reference.

I would like to make two points from the perspective of the future. First, as an announcer, I am always communicating in front of a microphone, but similarly, municipalities and schools also have broadcasting rooms, and there are always people in the position of making disaster prevention radio announcements to residents or school broadcasts. I am very interested in what kind of calls they are making. For example, what words do they use to call out when there is heavy rain near the school? We may have common concerns.

Second, TV stations, municipalities, and schools all conduct disaster prevention drills. However, I think those drills are completed internally. But when a major disaster like an earthquake, tsunami, or flood occurs, the disaster situation should be the same for every industry and position. So, how about trying a joint drill that transcends industries?

First, we create a unified scenario, such as the time of the earthquake and the damage estimate. Then, in a setting where an earthquake has actually occurred, we verify together what kind of reporting the TV station will start, how Tosashimizu City will respond, and what kind of decisions will be made at the school site. If different industries conduct a joint drill with the same scenario, it will be realistic, and we can also improve the quality. I would also like to verify in a drill setting how TV reporting during a disaster is viewed in the affected areas. Shall we do a joint drill? Of course, Ms. Ohki will be the producer (laughs).

That's a great idea. Elementary and junior high schools always have their drills on different days. I always wondered why they were on different days when an earthquake would happen on the same day. You should have to think about whether to pick up your older brother or younger brother first.

The other day, I had the opportunity to observe a drill for medical professionals, and it was held for two full days, with medical professionals in the metropolitan area participating simultaneously with the same scenario and real-time coordination. DMAT personnel from Iwate, Gunma, and Shizuoka prefectures were stationed at the Kanagawa Prefectural Government Office, and they were exchanging information like, "Can you accept dialysis patients there?" It would be great if we could do something like this across different industries.

Mr. Miyamoto, what are your thoughts?

Today was full of learning experiences, and I've thought of many things that we could do from now on.

What was impressive was the idea that the weather information everyone probably needs is a little different from what we think. In addition to common information, there must be optimal information for each person and information needed at their workplace. The Japan Meteorological Agency creates that data to some extent, so I thought that if there were someone who could bridge the gap, various things could proceed more smoothly. I hope to contribute in some way in the future.

The same goes for seismology, but unlike at other universities where meteorology and seismology are within the Faculty of Science, having them as disciplines that look toward society is very characteristic of SFC. I think this is what Yukichi Fukuzawa envisioned with his concept of jitsugaku (science).

Thank you all for a very meaningful discussion today.