[Special Feature: Mobility in a Depopulating Society] "Town-wide Automated Mobility Services" Supporting New Towns / Sonoko Yasuhira

2020/07/06

In Japan, a shift in industrial structure occurred during the post-war high-growth period. To address the concentration of population in metropolitan areas and the shortage of housing supply, many new towns were developed in the suburbs of urban areas and surrounding municipalities. In these suburban new towns developed in the 1970s, office workers in their 20s and 30s working in urban areas moved in with their families seeking a better environment.

After 2010, the generation that was in their prime when they first moved in passed the age of 60 and reached retirement age. Their children have become independent and left home, leading to an increase in two-person elderly households and single-person households due to bereavement. Today's suburban new towns are facing many emerging problems aligned with the aging of residents and changes in lifestyle, such as aging housing, delays in barrier-free accessibility, the decline of neighborhood centers, and the idling of elementary and junior high schools.

In particular, in new towns located in hilly areas with many slopes and stairs, shopping or going to the hospital on foot or by bicycle is difficult. Therefore, people continue to own private cars and drive daily even as they age. Why don't they use public transportation such as buses? Buses are a means of transport connecting the inside and outside of the new town. On the narrow roads of residential areas, it is difficult for buses to travel and stop, so bus stops are located along the main roads of the new town. Since they are mainly used for commuting to work or school, the number of daytime services is limited. Therefore, they are not suitable for movement within the new town.

There are calls to encourage the voluntary return of driver's licenses to prevent traffic accidents involving elderly drivers. However, it is very difficult to maintain daily life without a private car. Therefore, along with the promotion of voluntary return, neighborhood mobility services that can replace private cars are required.

The Japan Research Institute, Limited, to which the author belongs, is considering services that support movement inside and outside residential areas (hereinafter referred to as "Town-wide Automated Mobility Services"). Town-wide Automated Mobility Services are an initiative to improve the ease of movement within a region by providing diverse means of transport through "neighborhood mobility services" and "cooperation with public transportation" within residential areas. By making it easier to travel to destinations, the service aims to allow elderly people to continue living there with peace of mind, while also revitalizing interactions between residents and local shops.

"Neighborhood mobility services" refer to demand-responsive transport using small automated vehicles that run at low speeds. While automated driving is eventually expected to reach Level 4, where no driver is required, in the initial stages, it is planned to be Level 2 driving assistance with a driver present or Level 3 conditional automated driving, considering legal systems, technology, operations, and social acceptance. Since continuously paying attention to safe driving and passenger transport while driving on narrow residential roads is a heavy burden for drivers, automated driving is expected to play a role in reducing that burden.

"Demand-responsive transport" is a service that provides shared transport in a set area according to user demand (calls or reservations) (such as "Area-based operation of general passenger automobile transport business" or "Private-use paid passenger transport" under the Road Transport Act). Demand-responsive transport allows for the design of highly flexible operation formats (routes, schedules, and stops) tailored to regional characteristics. Previously, it was introduced in areas where train or bus businesses and routes had withdrawn or shrunk (transportation-void areas or transportation-inconvenient areas). In recent years, it has also been introduced in suburban residential areas and urban areas to complement existing public transportation. "Town-wide Automated Mobility Services" utilize an on-demand transportation system that performs real-time shared matching of multiple demands using AI.

"Cooperation with public transportation" is a mechanism that allows users to view information and use buses, taxis, and neighborhood mobility services (demand-responsive transport using low-speed automated vehicles) using a membership-based portal site for the new town (hereinafter referred to as the "Town-wide Portal"). It is envisioned that after returning to the suburban new town from the city center by bus, users will transfer to a reserved neighborhood mobility service to head toward their homes.

In a two-month demonstration experiment of "Town-wide Automated Mobility Services" conducted in FY2019 (773 registered members excluding stakeholders, etc.), elderly people aged 60 and over with mobility challenges were assumed to be the primary customers. While there was high usage among the elderly, there was actually a certain amount of usage by child-rearing households and children as well. The service was used repeatedly for lessons at the community center, and many instances of usage by multiple people, such as parents and children or children together, were observed.

While suburban new towns are aging, the prices of vacant houses and land in suburban new towns slightly away from urban areas have come within reach of the younger generation due to economic turning points such as the collapse of the bubble economy and the Lehman shock, leading to a gradual influx of new residents.

In interviews conducted after the demonstration, we received the following feedback from child-rearing households:

• Since children usually have few opportunities to interact with the elderly, it was a good opportunity as the children seemed to feel something watching the elderly get on and off slowly.

・ 普段は会わない人とも、短い時間だけど一期一会で話すことができ、母親同士の情報交換ができた。

How do child-rearing households and children usually move around the neighborhood? Looking at the age-specific data from the "2015 National Urban Transport Characteristics Survey (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism)," it was found that for women in their 30s, the purpose of private travel (weekdays) for "pick-up and drop-off" is more frequent (8 times that of men) than for "shopping" or "dining." The means of transport for pick-up and drop-off are mostly private cars (33%) and bicycles (30%), while bus usage remains at 1%. Even for children's means of transport, the use of public transportation was limited. Assuming the targets of pick-up and drop-off are children based on age, it is thought that there are some mobility challenges or needs that are difficult to satisfy with public transportation regarding the movement of child-rearing households and children, including pick-ups and drop-offs.

Non-public transportation (private cars, bicycles, walking) also has challenges. Pregnant women feel anxious about driving with a large belly. For pick-ups and drop-offs at nurseries, kindergartens, or Juku and lessons, stopping and parking around the facilities can hinder surrounding traffic. Using a bicycle with a child seat carries the risk of falling accidents. Going out on foot while using a stroller or baby carrier, or holding hands with a small child, requires great care for safety. On rainy days or in other bad weather, the burden of moving by bicycle or on foot is even greater.

For sustainable regional formation, the participation of the younger generation moving into the area and the children who will be responsible for future town planning is important. Neighborhood mobility services that are friendly to child-rearing households and children are also highly convenient for the elderly, and can be expected to improve the willingness of all residents to go out for shopping or dining, leading to improved regional circulation and revitalization of the local economy. We believe that neighborhood mobility services used by the elderly, as well as child-rearing households and children, will become an important element of future town planning.

However, neighborhood mobility services limited to residential areas have limited fare income due to short travel distances, resulting in poor business viability. It is often pointed out that implementation is difficult regardless of the presence of needs. Personnel costs account for most of the operating expenses. Until automated driving technology advances and drivers are no longer needed, we would like professional drivers (Type 2 license holders) to drive, but securing sufficient personnel costs is necessary. There are ideas such as having local residents obtain Type 2 licenses and drive in a spirit of volunteerism, or providing shared transport with a standard license such as private-use paid passenger transport, but even then, it would be difficult to cover all operating expenses with fare income alone.

What "Town-wide Automated Mobility Services" is challenging is the creation of a mobility service ecosystem through a combination of regional self-help and mutual aid in cooperation with neighborhood associations and private services. We aim to build a mechanism (hereinafter referred to as "Local MaaS") where the funds necessary for operation continue to circulate by cooperating with local shops. We believe that building a Local MaaS that includes not only neighborhood mobility services but also cooperation with public transportation and non-transportation services will lead to the business sustainability of neighborhood mobility services.

持続可能な地域形成には、地域に転入する若い世代や将来のまちづくりを担う子どもたちの参加が重要です。子育て世帯や子どもに優しい近隣移動サービスは、高齢者にも利便性が高く、住民全体の買い物や食事など外出意欲の向上も期待でき、地域回遊性の向上や地域経済の活性化につながります。高齢者、そして子育て世帯と子どもが利用する近隣移動サービスは、今後のまちづくりの重要な要素になると私たちは考えます。

しかし、住宅地内限定の近隣移動サービスは、移動距離の短さから運賃収入が限られるため、事業性が乏しく、ニーズの有無にかかわらず実装の困難さが指摘されます。運行費用の多くを占めるのは人件費です。自動運転の技術が進展し、運転手が不要になるまでは、プロの運転手（２種免許保有者）に運転してもらいたいのですが、十分な人件費の確保が必要です。地域住民に２種免許を取得してもらい、ボランティア精神で運転してもらう方法や、自家用有償旅客運送など普通免許で乗合輸送をする案もありますが、それでも運賃収入で運行経費を全て賄うことは難しいでしょう。

「まちなか自動移動サービス」が挑戦するのは、自治会などとの連携を通じた地域の自助・共助と民間サービスとの組み合わせによる、移動サービスのエコシステムづくりです。地域の商店などと連携することで、運営に必要な資金が循環し続ける仕組み（以下、「ローカルＭａａＳ」）の構築を目指しています。近隣移動サービスだけでなく、公共交通との連携、そして非交通サービスとの連携を含めたローカルＭａａＳを構築することで、近隣移動サービスの事業持続性につながると考えます。

新型コロナウイルスの感染拡大により、私たちは３密を避けて暮らしました。感染の終息後もニューノーマル（新しい日常）として、新たな価値観が生活に反映されるでしょう。すると課題が多い郊外ニュータウンの価値は見直されます。郊外ニュータウンは住宅の敷地面積が広く、公園など緑もあります。交通量も少なく閑静な環境です。若い世代が移り住むことに郊外ニュータウンはウェルカムです。新規戸建ては難しくても、状態の良い中古戸建ては若い世代に魅力的です。時には近所のお店でランチやテイクアウトも良いですね。空き家や自治会館の一室をシェアリングオフィスにするのはどうでしょう。もちろん、地域内を巡る近隣移動サービスがあれば、郊外ニュータウンでのニューノーマル・ライフもより過ごしやすいものになるでしょう。