[Special Feature: Yukichi Fukuzawa and Statistics] Yukichi Fukuzawa's Statistical Thinking / Keita Yamauchi

2020/06/05

In recent years, in what is called the era of big data, interest in statistics and statistical education—from schools to working adults—has been increasing. The November 2014 special feature of Mita-hyoron (official monthly journal published by Keio University Press) was also titled "Statistics Opens the Future." Furthermore, coupled with expectations for artificial intelligence (AI), the ability to utilize data, discover problems, and solve them is increasingly being demanded.

In this context, April 2020 marked a major turning point. The new Courses of Study restructured statistical education from elementary to high school, and new textbooks based on them began to be used simultaneously in elementary schools nationwide this spring. As a member of the Minato City Board of Education, I compared textbooks from all publishers and all grades to select those for use in municipal elementary schools, and I truly felt the shift of the times. Furthermore, at Keio Yokohama Elementary School, for which I was responsible for establishing, "education in the power of language," including the language of numbers, is set as one of the three pillars as the foundation of logical thinking. In my educational research on medical management at the graduate school level, I have also aimed for the application of exploratory and interactive data analysis. For these reasons, I am deeply moved that such an era has finally arrived.

For those who received conventional education, memories of statistical education might center on practicing calculation methods for averages and probabilities. However, in the mathematics curriculum of the new Courses of Study, not only has the volume increased, but the content has shifted to emphasize "statistical problem-solving." It advocates learning these methods to "reach one's own conclusions regarding problems and critically reflect on the validity of those conclusions" and to "acquire an attitude of utilizing them in life and learning." In fact, the new textbooks are designed to select topics that facilitate discussions for problem-solving. Even more symbolic is the inclusion of the PPDAC cycle, also known as the "statistical inquiry process." This is a way of thinking that continuously rotates through the cycle of Problem (clarifying familiar issues) → Plan (considering data to collect and how to collect it) → Data (collecting data) → Analysis (creating tables and graphs to analyze and find patterns) → Conclusion (providing a conclusion to the initial problem and presenting new issues). As this cycle shows, there is great significance in the fact that the emphasis has shifted from merely acquiring statistical techniques to education in statistical thinking, or the thinking process of scientific problem-solving. In fact, this thinking process has been emphasized in statistical education worldwide as the core of 21st-century skills.

The relationship between Yukichi Fukuzawa and statistics has been discussed before, but here I would like to consider it specifically from the perspective of statistical thinking.

The first person to point out that Yukichi Fukuzawa initiated the history of statistics in Japan and played an important role was Masao Yokoyama, who studied statistics under Koji Sugi and succeeded Ayatoshi Kure to lecture on statistics at Keio University. Yokoyama noted that the first book translated and published in Japan using the term "seihyo" for "statistik" was "Bankoku Seihyo" (translated by Setsuzo Okamoto [later Masao Furukawa] and published as a collection of statistical data from countries around the world under Fukuzawa's supervision). He also mentioned that many disciples, including Tokujirō Obata, participated in the founding of the Statistical Association; that disciples including Fumio Yano and Takuzo Ushiba participated in the Board of Statistics established in the government at the suggestion of Shigenobu Okuma; and that the pioneer of the life insurance business, an application of statistics, was Meiji Life Insurance, founded by Taizo Abe. Research on such achievements has become increasingly sophisticated in recent years.

However, it is necessary to note that Yukichi Fukuzawa was already advocating a way of thinking that leads to the statistical thinking mentioned at the beginning, not just the importation, creation, and utilization of statistical data.

For example, there is a passage explaining "jitsugaku (science)" in the first volume of Gakumon no susume (An Encouragement of Learning). It is the part containing the famous phrase, "What should be primarily encouraged is jitsugaku (science) that is close to the ordinary daily use of humans." This single phrase is sometimes taken out of context, leading to the misunderstanding that "jitsugaku (science)" is merely a practical or useful study, but if you read further,

"Even in a single subject or study, one should grasp the actual facts, follow the matter and the object, seek the reason of things nearby, and meet the needs of today."

In other words, he points out that in any field of study, one should first observe facts and phenomena, pursue the theories and laws behind the events based on those objective facts, and apply them to daily life—that is "ordinary jitsugaku (science) for humans."

Incidentally, the 12th volume of Gakumon no susume (An Encouragement of Learning) also contains a frequently quoted passage regarding "jitsugaku (science)": "The essence of learning lies only in its application. Learning without application is equal to ignorance." Following that is this passage:

"The main purpose of learning is not just reading, but the work of the spirit. To utilize this work and apply it to the actual field, various ingenuity is necessary. 'Observation' means inspecting things. 'Reasoning' means investigating the reason of things and attaching one's own theory."

Here too, the importance of "observing" phenomena and "investigating" their theoretical laws is written. Furthermore, he points out that this alone is insufficient, and there is a need to "exchange" that "knowledge" through conversation and "disseminate" it through books and public speaking. Incidentally, while "inquiry" (tankyu) is a keyword in the new Courses of Study, Yukichi Fukuzawa sometimes used the word "investigation" (suikyu).

In this way, Yukichi Fukuzawa used the word "jitsugaku (science)" with the meaning of a scientific way of thinking. For example, in the "Keio University Kiji," which could be called the 25-year history of the school, he states, "The principle of this school is contrary to the old school of Japanese and Chinese studies; even when discussing literature or talking about worldly affairs, it is based on Western jitsugaku (science)," and he added the ruby (phonetic guide) "science" to "jitsugaku."

While writing works for adults, Yukichi Fukuzawa also energetically wrote books for children of what we would today call elementary and junior high school age, and these can sometimes help in understanding the ideas he valued. Because he strove to make things important for the new era easy to understand for children nationwide, his thoughts are expressed frankly. For example, there is a calligraphy textbook called "Keimo Tenarai no Fumi." While previous textbooks used Chinese poems, waka, and letters for ceremonial occasions as example sentences, he used new views on learning and other topics. Among them is the following sentence:

"The purpose of physics (kyorigaku) is to fix one's eyes on things that people are usually accustomed to and do not find strange, to observe things that people find strange and search for their reason, and to apply this to practical use to benefit the world; this is the first and foremost duty."

Could it not be said that this also shows the thinking process of scientific inquiry in a very easy-to-understand way?

The representative work in which Yukichi Fukuzawa mentioned "statistics" not as statistical data but as a study to explore tendencies and laws in social phenomena is An Outline of a Theory of Civilization.

Yukichi Fukuzawa wrote this after thoroughly reading Buckle's "History of Civilization in England." Masao Maruyama introduced this book in "Reading 'An Outline of a Theory of Civilization'" as follows:

"The shorter the time and the narrower the space, the greater the dominance of chance. Room for individual special circumstances emerges. Through mass observation, special circumstances are offset, and general laws emerge. Buckle cites (...) statistics as the method for that mass observation."

And he evaluates An Outline of a Theory of Civilization this way:

"This 'Outline' by Fukuzawa, who learned from Buckle, was the first to grasp this (statistics) as a general method for objective recognition of social laws, independent of policy theory."

Based on Buckle's book, Yukichi Fukuzawa introduced that there are certain tendencies in the annual number of murderers, suicides, and daily sales of steamed cakes. He further showed that by tabulating and contrasting population, prices, wages, number of marriages, births, illnesses, and deaths, the situation of a country becomes clear at a glance, and that the annual number of marriages is related to grain prices. He then stated that investigating circumstances in this way is very convenient for seeking their causes, and that it is necessary to consider that causes include "immediate causes" and "remote causes." Incidentally, comparison and inference of causal relationships are important concepts in statistical thinking.

This part is based on Buckle's book, but the descriptions of the examples given feel as if he has truly made them his own. He began writing this book after developing the concept until around February 1874. Considering that the aforementioned first volume of Gakumon no susume (An Encouragement of Learning) was published in February 1872 and "Keimo Tenarai no Fumi" in 1871, for Yukichi Fukuzawa, who had already recognized and discussed the importance of scientific inquiry thinking, the statistics shown by Buckle must have been attractive and understandable with a sense of reality.

He also explained the significance of statistics by criticizing the attitude of "making arbitrary judgments about the state of the world based on a single matter or object" without evidence, or "being deluded by what is heard and seen nearby" and failing to search for remote causes. Since arbitrary judgment and delusion were the thinking attitudes Yukichi Fukuzawa most rejected, he likely strongly agreed with it as a thinking method to avoid falling into them.

The same book also contains the passage: "Even if it is tried and progresses well, I have not yet heard of anything that has reached its limit. From the beginning of creation to the present day, it may be called a world of trial." This resonates with the thinking of continuously rotating the cycle of statistical inquiry.

While it is significant that Yukichi Fukuzawa's understanding of statistics and the statistical thinking symbolized by "jitsugaku (science)" were demonstrated even where concrete data was absent, I would also like to look at how he handled quantitative data.

Yukichi Fukuzawa was originally a person who actively collected quantitative information and tried to understand it concretely. For example, in his notebook from when he explored the situations of various countries as part of the 1862 mission to Europe, numerous numbers are written down vertically and horizontally.

In his writings as well, he not only used statistical data to explain a country's situation more concretely and clearly but also frequently showed comparisons to advance his arguments. Looking at the editorials of Jiji Shinpo, in "Meat Must Be Eaten" (December 16, 1882), he estimated the per capita beef consumption from the number of cattle slaughtered nationwide in Japan, and further added estimates for pigs, boars, sheep, etc., for which there were no figures, to show that Japan's consumption was significantly lower compared to Western countries. In "On National Wealth" (June 23, 1883), he tabulated the volume of various types of sake between 1873 and 1882, demonstrating that the demand for refined sake temporarily decreased due to tax increases but returned to previous levels the following year.

In this way, it can be seen that thinking such as using statistical data to make comparisons, observe changes, or consider factors was part of his daily life.

As a concrete example, let's look at Transition of People's Way of Thinking (published in 1879). This argues that the "recent civilization" of the 1800s (also written as "modern civilization") is a civilization of steam, and that the "instruments of civilization" such as steamships, trains, telegraphs, printing, and mail have "renewed" the feelings or "popular sentiments" of people in countries around the world.

In this, he explains that these instruments have brought about an era where "information" (also written as "information") spreads instantly. After showing the circulation of newspapers that "broaden people's information" regarding the situation in Britain, he shows that the number of postal letters that "exchange people's information" was over 780 million in 1867, flourishing at 25 letters per person, and increased to 967 million in 1874.

Around this time, Yukichi Fukuzawa seems to have been looking at the situation in Japan in contrast based on statistical data as an indispensable element for the progress of civilization. In "Popular Theory of Civil Rights," published the previous year, he wrote, "To measure the degree of progress of human intelligence, one can know a part of it by looking at the amount of mail in that region," and listed the number of pieces of mail for one year starting from 1876. Specifically, he listed Tokyo Head Office at 15,103,000, Osaka Office at 2,788,000, Kyoto Office at 1,461,000, Aichi at 965,000, and Aomori at 257,000, and further divided Aichi and Aomori by population to show they were low at 0.8 and 0.55 letters per person per year, respectively.

In Transition of People's Way of Thinking, he further points out that people in an era when information transmission was slow were like pupae in terms of butterflies, and the government could easily control them. However, people who have gained the "instruments for communicating thoughts" are like butterflies with wings and cannot be easily controlled. He notes that some countries emerge that take measures of despotic oppression, but such old-fashioned ways will not be effective, and he introduces the British form of "transferring political power during peaceful times" and "constantly alternating political power between the old and the new," stating the necessity of a national diet.

Here too, after publishing a table of the prime minister's "date of appointment," "term of office," and "name of the person in power" between 1784 and 1879, he showed that "during the right ninety-six years, there were twenty-six generations of changes in power; the shortest term of office was 121 days, the longest was 17 years and 84 days, those over five years were (...) seven people, and those over ten years were only two. Also, if these ninety-six years are averaged over twenty-six generations, the term of office for one generation is a little over three years, six months, and nine days," and "it should be seen that the change is rather rapid." It is also noteworthy that he not only calculated the average but also carefully recorded the distribution of the terms of office, including the maximum and minimum values. In addition, it is interesting that he also created a table for the years in office of the Roju and others in the Tokugawa government in Japan, showing the average and distribution, to explain that it was not a position held by one person for many years. In this way, it is clear that Yukichi Fukuzawa had the thinking of actively collecting data himself, looking at distributions, and making contrasts.

This kind of thinking did not decline until his later years. For example, the Jiji Shinpo editorial "The Necessity of Statistics in Religion" (April 24, 1898) advocated the necessity of reform, stating that the situation of Buddhism was marked by problems with the "conduct of the head priests" and there was no hope of maintaining it as it was. He then asserted, "My plan regarding that reform is to judge their diligence or laziness and ability or inability based on statistical figures when performing the promotion or demotion of monks." He argued that monks should be evaluated by looking at the number of households and temples, the number and ratio of population and monks, the time monks spend preaching, and the number of police crimes in a year. The proposal to evaluate monks based on structure (population ratio of monks), process (preaching time), and outcome (number of crimes)—three elements often used today to evaluate the quality of services in hospitals and other institutions—must have been innovative for that time.

After An Outline of a Theory of Civilization, Yukichi Fukuzawa did not often discuss statistical thinking head-on. However, those thoughts were expressed in One Hundred Discourses of Fukuzawa, published in 1896.

Fukuzawa, who went so far as to say in Discourse 86, "A person without this overall statistical thought is not worthy of talking about matters of civilization," also stated in Discourse 34 that "what I have advocated for many years is the jitsugaku (science) of civilization." He mentioned that the achievements in science and technology, including steam and electricity, resulting from the "jitsugaku (science) of investigating various subjects"—which stems from the characteristic of civilization to "calculate the reality of mathematical principles and dissect the large and small" and "raise doubts and investigate their source"—are countless. He then said that even looking at intangible areas apart from science and technology, namely politics, law, and economics, "their progress and development are nothing but the gift of mathematical principles. The fact that people in Western countries have long valued the method of statistics and utilize the actual numbers of statistics to observe all human movements, thereby planning for the greatest happiness of the greatest number, is also sufficient to glimpse where their thoughts lie." Finally, I would like to introduce the following passage:

"When explaining the reason why those trains and steamships move based on academic principles, showing the principles of statistics through the details of the mail, and talking about the mysterious use of electricity by proving it with the actual telegraph, one sees nothing that lies outside of academic principles in all things. Not limited only to new things of the civilization style, even the smallest tree or stone, or a single piece of paper or a hair before one's eyes, by illuminating it with the principles of truth, explaining its nature, and clarifying its utility, and gradually investigating its reason to enter into the profound and reach the most profound of the profound, the universe is encompassed within the human heart (...)" (Discourse 70)

Seventeen years after analyzing the postal situation in Transition of People's Way of Thinking, the 62-year-old Yukichi Fukuzawa held expectations that, just as there are theories in science and technology, social phenomena and utilities could also be investigated through statistical thinking, expanding its scope.