[Special Feature: Fukuzawa Yukichi and Statistics] What was brought about by the letter in which Fukuzawa Yukichi recommended his "Statistics Comrades" to Ōkuma Shigenobu / Masahiko Okuzumi

2020/06/05

Fukuzawa Yukichi and Ōkuma Shigenobu first met in 1873 (Meiji 6). Until then, they had both harbored mutual prejudices and were considered to be on bad terms, but people around them thought it would be interesting to bring them together. When they finally met, they hit it off immediately and reportedly formed a close relationship.*1

The contents of the letter Fukuzawa Yukichi sent to Ōkuma Shigenobu in January 1879 (Meiji 12) (hereinafter referred to as the "Fukuzawa Letter") are shown on the next page. According to the letter, Fukuzawa recommended 13 Keio University alumni and others as "Statistics Comrades." Additionally, he added the names of Kōji Sugi, Kinsaku Arai, and Ayatoshi Kure as "people of the Statistics Bureau" (Table 1). While it is not clear exactly what the purpose of this letter was, it suggests that Fukuzawa Yukichi and Ōkuma Shigenobu were interacting closely regarding statistics at that time.

Incidentally, 13 of the 16 people listed in this Fukuzawa Letter were also founding members of Seihyōsha, which was established in December 1878 (Meiji 11). According to Shunsaku Nishikawa's "Intellectual Tradition in Keio University: Statistics—From Fukuzawa Yukichi to Masao Yokoyama" (Modern Japanese Studies, Vol. 8), this letter was sent to "urge Ōkuma Shigenobu to establish a Statistics Institute in the government, accompanied by a list of 'Statistics [Research] Comrades' from Keio University who formed Seihyōsha." However, no documents could be found to confirm such an interpretation. It is also possible to interpret this letter as Fukuzawa listing personnel in response to a request from Ōkuma for recommendations.

Furthermore, according to Chapter 5, Section (4) "The Beginning of the Census" in "The 85-Year History of Marquis Ōkuma, Vol. 1" (Committee for the Compilation of the 85-Year History of Marquis Ōkuma, 1926), it is stated: "Around the beginning of 1880 (Meiji 13), he (Ōkuma) spoke to Fukuzawa Yukichi about the necessity of statistics, expressing his hope that the bright minds of Keio University would devote their efforts to statistical research. Fukuzawa understood his intentions and sought to contribute to the progress of statistics. It appears that among the newcomers of the Juku, there were those who knew the necessity of statistics and met from time to time to conduct research. These matters are clear in the letter Fukuzawa presented to him."

According to page 21 of Hiroichi Ito's "Historical Walk through Statistics," regarding the letter in which Fukuzawa Yukichi recommended statistics comrades to Ōkuma Shigenobu, it states: "Masao Yokoyama inferred that it might be from 1879 (Meiji 12) because the members in the attachment (of the letter) are almost the same as those at the time of Seihyōsha's founding. However, if that were the case, Seihyōsha would have already been established, making it unclear what he was trying to ask of Ōkuma."

Additionally, in the "Documents Collected by the Ōkuma Family (Excerpts) Vol. 2" edited by Kenkichi Ichijima and held by the Waseda University Library (edited by the Waseda University Archives), "Meiji 12" is added in parentheses. In any case, the only theory regarding the year is "Meiji 12," and no other theories exist.

Incidentally, according to "Naruhodo Statistics Academy" on the website of the Statistics Bureau of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, "While Ōkuma was working on financial reorganization as the 4th Lord of Finance (equivalent to the current Minister of Finance) of the Meiji government, he felt the need for accurate statistics, proposed the establishment of the Statistics Institute, and took the lead in statistical development by serving as its first director." Since Ōkuma served as the 4th Lord of Finance from October 25, 1873, to February 28, 1880, it is inferred that the "Your Ministry" mentioned in the Fukuzawa Letter's phrase "coincidentally your Ministry's intention to make efforts" refers to the Ministry of Finance. It is thought that the letter introducing the statistics comrades was sent in response to a request for cooperation from Ōkuma Shigenobu, the Lord of Finance.

Furthermore, it can be inferred that Ōkuma requested Fukuzawa to recommend personnel expected to play a central role in the Statistics Bureau, and in response, Fukuzawa added the note "these are the people of the Statistics Bureau."

Seihyōsha was a statistical association founded in December 1878 (Meiji 11) by pioneers of statistics centered around Kōji Sugi (renamed the Statistical Association in April 1879, and later the Tokyo Statistical Association).

According to Takeshi Yabuuchi's "Research on the History of Statistical Development in Japan," regarding the origin of the name Seihyōsha, it states: "The name comes from the purpose of the association... to consult (hear opinions and discuss) on 'Seihyō' (table making), namely the collection and compilation of statistical data." However, the specific origin of the term "Seihyō" remains unclear. According to Morizaburō Ukawa's "History of the Statistical Association" (First issue of 'Statistics Collection,' 1880), Seihyōsha was to "extract from selected domestic and foreign chronological reports to produce tables (Seihyō)..." This suggests that Kōji Sugi may have devised the term "Seihyō" and named the company "Seihyōsha" based on the "production of political tables (Seihyō)" mentioned in Mamichi Tsuda's 1874 translation of "Hyōki Teigō."

Looking at the movement toward the founding of Seihyōsha, Tokujirō Obata and others, who were listed as statistics comrades in the Fukuzawa Letter, took the lead in preparations, and Seihyōsha was founded in December 1878 (as mentioned above, many of the members at the time of founding matched the Keio University graduates or affiliates listed in the attachment of the Fukuzawa Letter). Considering this, it is possible that Fukuzawa's thoughts on the importance of statistics, as pointed out in his books (such as An Outline of a Theory of Civilization), served as the driving force for Tokujirō Obata and others to found Seihyōsha. Incidentally, Obata's name appears in the paragraph following the seasonal greetings in the Fukuzawa Letter.

In February 1879 (Meiji 12), the year after Seihyōsha was founded, Kōki Watanabe, Akira Mayahara, and Azusa Ono also had a plan to start a statistical society. When they consulted Kōji Sugi, Sugi noted that the purpose was largely the same as Seihyōsha's. As a result of discussions, they decided to merge on March 6 of the same year. Furthermore, committee members were appointed to draft rules, which were decided on April 1. The name was changed to the Statistical Association (later the Tokyo Statistical Association), and five managers—Kōki Watanabe, Azusa Ono, Taizō Abe, Fumio Yano, and Tokujirō Obata—were appointed and entrusted with various matters.*4

Here, Azusa Ono (deeply involved in the founding of the Constitutional Reform Party and Tokyo Senmon Gakko, later Waseda University) is famous as a brain for Ōkuma Shigenobu. Also, Taizō Abe (founder of Japan's first life insurance company, who established the modern life insurance business by deriving premiums from expected mortality rates calculated through statistical processing for the first time in Japan), Fumio Yano, and Tokujirō Obata were, so to speak, students of Fukuzawa (Keio University alumni). Among them, Abe and Obata are listed as statistics comrades in the Fukuzawa Letter.*5 Yano is said to have started visiting Ōkuma's residence due to the interaction between Fukuzawa and Ōkuma, eventually becoming a close aide to Ōkuma. Yano also worked at the Statistics Institute (headed by Ōkuma Shigenobu) established in 1881, along with Tsuyoshi Inukai and Yukio Ozaki.

Ōkuma Shigenobu proposed the establishment of the Statistics Institute in 1881 (Meiji 14) and became its first director. The Fukuzawa Letter from two years prior may have had some influence on Ōkuma's vision for the Statistics Institute.

Ōkuma's vision for the Statistics Institute and his view on statistics can be read from his public speaking at the Statistical Social Gathering in 1898 (Statistics Collection No. 205). According to it: "...The enthusiastic Mr. Sugi wanted to try investigating the population at that time... so he did Kai Province as a test. If we had followed that momentum, we should have progressed much faster. Furthermore, (statistics) simply won't work under the Ministry of Finance. It must be done with sufficiently strong authority; it won't work if each ministry does it individually. No matter what, the Ministry of Finance alone is not enough. So, we decided to set up a Statistics Institute in the center... and do it with one large organization... I was attacked quite a bit for doing something big as a personal hobby. However, this is by no means a hobby. ...I set up the Statistics Institute and then the Board of Audit. It was a plan to consolidate power in the center to organize the administration, a combination of political strategy and a true desire to advance statistics, which led to the creation of a high-status institution..."

Furthermore, he argued: "...We conduct national administration through debate. Politics, society, and academia are all about debate. What should be the basis for that debate? There must be something based on a scientific principle. Vague ideals or vague imaginations alone do not provide a firm basis for debate. As the debate progresses, what decides the debate is evidence. ...How is this problem decided? It is whether there are statistics to rely on here or not." This shows that Ōkuma viewed statistics from the perspective of EBPM (Evidence-Based Policy Making), which is still applicable today. The utility of statistics is also discussed in Fukuzawa's books such as An Outline of a Theory of Civilization,*6 and it is thought that Ōkuma and Fukuzawa shared common ground in their views on statistics.

From the "Fukuzawa Letter," I believe we can see how the friendship between the two great figures, Fukuzawa Yukichi and Ōkuma Shigenobu, in the early Meiji era became a driving force for the development of government statistics.

Following the Fukuzawa Letter in January 1879, the establishment of the Statistical Association (later the Tokyo Statistical Association) through the merger with Seihyōsha occurred in April of the same year. In April 1881, Ōkuma Shigenobu proposed the establishment of the Statistics Institute, and in May of the same year, Ōkuma himself became the director. Throughout this development, Fukuzawa's students (Keio University alumni) and Ōkuma's close aides were deeply involved. In a sense, the introduction of personnel through the Fukuzawa Letter can be said to hold an important position in the history of statistics in our country.

The Tokyo Statistical Association, a private statistical organization, made significant contributions to the progress of statistical theory and technology during the Meiji and Taisho eras through the publication of its journal "Statistics Collection" and the holding of lectures. It also contributed to the development of statistics by promoting the realization of the census through repeated proposals and petitions to the government, the House of Representatives, and the House of Peers, and by nurturing many statisticians. These activities bore fruit, and the first census was realized in 1920 (Taisho 9).

The 21st Census to be conducted in 2020 (Reiwa 2) marks the 100th anniversary of the first census. The social benefit of the census in building the foundation for the future is universal, and I have reaffirmed that it was the activities of private statistical organizations in the Meiji and Taisho eras that allowed us to reach this 100-year milestone.

By the way, in relation to the social benefits of the census,*7 I am reminded of the opening part of Chapter 1 (Chapitre premier) of "Traité Théorique et Pratique de Statistique" (1878) by the 19th-century French statistician Maurice Block: "Il n’y a aucune exagération à dire qu’on fait de la statistique depuis qu’il y a des États." A literal translation would be, "It is no exaggeration to say that statistics have been conducted since states have existed" (statistics are indispensable for state management). Masashi Tsukahara translated this in "Theory and Practice of Statistics" (1943) as "It is no exaggeration to say that where there is a state, there are statistics." Considering the year of publication, it feels like a message (a warning) implicitly suggesting the error of neglecting statistics in wartime Japan. And I felt that this warning must be listened to sincerely even in modern society.*8

For general reference materials, please refer to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications Statistics Bureau website "Statistics Library Mini Topics (No. 3, as well as No. 2 and No. 14)."