[Feature: Questioning Japan's Space Strategy] Japan's Space Diplomacy: Changes Surrounding Space and Recent Initiatives

2019/03/05

It would be no exaggeration to say that not a day goes by without seeing news reports about space. In September last year, Yusaku Maezawa, president of ZOZOTOWN, announced a plan to travel to the moon as early as 2023, which received particularly large coverage in Japan. Furthermore, the movie "Doraemon" to be released this spring is set on the moon, titled "Chronicle of the Moon Exploration." Seeing astronauts spinning around in the International Space Station on television in our living rooms, space—once an object of longing and admiration—feels as though it has become much closer in recent years.

Even as globalization progresses, in academic and highly specialized fields such as science and technology, problems are often first resolved within communities of stakeholders, such as scientists who understand the circumstances well. However, I have been given the opportunity to introduce "space diplomacy," which specifically involves coordination between nations. Based on my experience as the Director of the Space Policy Division of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (at the time), and while looking back at space diplomacy at the United Nations, I would like to convey as clearly as possible the current situation in which Japan is focusing not only on conventional technology and scientific exploration but also on the civil (commercial) use and security of space, in response to the recent expansion and changes in the scope of space activities (I should note that this short essay represents my personal views and not those of the organization to which I belong).

In 1957, the Soviet Union successfully launched the satellite Sputnik, and humanity finally succeeded in escaping the Earth's gravitational field. In response, the United States established NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) the following year in 1958 to aim for the moon, and in 1969, humanity landed on the moon. Following these developments in the midst of the Cold War, the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) was established by a UN General Assembly resolution in 1959, and the Outer Space Treaty entered into force in 1967.

The Outer Space Treaty stipulates basic principles such as the freedom of exploration and use of outer space (Article 1), the prohibition of national appropriation by former colonialist methods (Article 2), the peaceful use of space (interpreted as not placing weapons of mass destruction in space, etc.) (Article 4), and that responsibility for space activities (including those by private individuals) by States Parties shall be attributed to the state. Today, 107 countries, including the United States, Russia, and Japan, are parties to the treaty.

Subsequently, treaties were concluded to support the implementation of the Outer Space Treaty, such as the Rescue Agreement, which stipulates that countries should cooperate with each other from a humanitarian perspective when astronauts return to Earth despite the Cold War, as well as agreements on liability for damages and the registration of objects. These are collectively known as the Five United Nations Treaties on Outer Space.

While the United Nations is the primary forum for multilateral coordination of interests, from the perspective of the function of creating international law as "hard law"—which strictly establishes rights and obligations under international law for states in relation to space—this function has actually ceased since the conclusion of these five space treaties. Various reasons can be considered for this background. One is that technological innovation in space is progressing rapidly, and it is inherently difficult to conduct agile coordination of rules between nations in response to fast-moving technology. Furthermore, while the countries with space capabilities in the sense of being able to escape the gravitational field were extremely limited at the time—the US, USSR, Japan, China, and India—as time passed, this overlapped with the period of North-South conflict, and it is not difficult to imagine that maneuvering and negotiations regarding space utilization were difficult. This is also reflected in the fact that the Moon Agreement (which entered into force in 1984), the fifth of the five space treaties, has been ratified by only 18 countries, and has not been ratified by the US, Russia, or Japan.

On the other hand, during this time, the United Nations has adopted many principles and guidelines regarding space, including those for broadcasting satellites and remote sensing, based on discussions among countries with space capabilities and space agencies. Such guidelines, which effectively apply only to stakeholders with the will and capability and do not necessarily have strong legal binding force, are called "soft law."

For example, it is said that tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of pieces of debris, known as space junk consisting of rocket remains and the like, are drifting through space at speeds of several kilometers per second, in some cases rotating irregularly. On average, the International Space Station performs maneuvers to avoid debris once a year. In recent years, this debris problem has also attracted attention in Japan, but the United States has shown interest since the 1980s from the perspective of stable use of space, and in 1993, the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) was established among space agencies of various countries, including NASA. In 2007, the United Nations compiled the "Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines" based on the 2002 guidelines created by the committee, and its content encourages efforts in line with the updated IADC guidelines.

In terms of recent initiatives, the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space established a working group to formulate guidelines on the "Long-term Sustainability of Outer Space Activities (LTS)" and has held discussions for about eight years. The working group completed its mandate last summer, but in the future, based on the discussions to date, it is expected that coordination will take place bilaterally and multilaterally with a view to more specific envisioned uses of space, such as Space Traffic Management (STM) for space that is bound to become crowded.

Furthermore, the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space has two subcommittees: Scientific and Technical, and Legal. From Japan, Chiaki Mukai served as the chair of the Scientific and Technical Subcommittee from 2017 to 2018, and Professor Setsuko Aoki of the Keio University Law School is scheduled to serve as the chair of the Legal Subcommittee for two years starting next spring. I sincerely look forward to the success of Professor Aoki, who has attended the committee as a member of the Japanese delegation for about 20 years and has become the international face of Japanese space law.

In addition, the UN forum is thought to have functioned as a place to build trust and prevent falling into mutual suspicion by having countries regularly introduce their own policies and activities regarding space activities, which are physically difficult to see.

In forums other than the UN, Japan, led by MEXT and JAXA, has been holding the Asia-Pacific Regional Space Agency Forum since 1993, following the Cold War, with the aim of promoting space utilization in the Asia-Pacific region. It has developed into the largest space-related conference in the region, with participation from over 40 countries and regions, including space agencies, administrative agencies, international organizations, private companies, and universities/Research Centers and Institutes. In recent years, attendance by high-ranking government officials and heads of space agencies from various countries has increased, and it is being utilized as a forum for specifically considering international cooperation in the space field. It is scheduled to be held in Japan this autumn.

Utilizing the opportunities for countries to gather at such multilateral meetings, and also on separate occasions, space dialogues have been actively held on a regular basis within bilateral and regional frameworks such as Japan-US, Japan-France, and Japan-EU. Recently, it was newly decided to launch a space dialogue with India as well.

From the perspective of the space industry, high growth is expected globally in the future, and with a view to capturing such global growth potential, the Japanese government (Cabinet Office) compiled the "Space Industry Vision 2030" in 2017. Also, in a bilateral context, we have been actively taking up space industry cooperation with countries such as the UK.

Furthermore, at the "UNISPACE+50" meeting held at the UN Headquarters in Vienna last June to commemorate the 50th anniversary of the first UN Space Conference, JAXA President Hiroshi Yamakawa, who took office in April, gave a speech representing the Japanese delegation. In addition, Mitsunobu Okada, President of Astroscale, spoke at a symposium held concurrently, communicating the necessity of debris removal from the perspective of long-term sustainability of space and the fact that removal is not a pipe dream but is on the verge of the demonstration stage. In the future, as space utilization becomes more concrete, such as space traffic management and space resource development, discussions regarding the standards and principles necessary for space utilization will likely be required. Whether we will immediately enter international negotiations is uncertain given the history of space mentioned above, but it will be important not only to keep up with international discussions but also to foster and lead international momentum ourselves on various occasions.

I would also like to briefly mention international space exploration, which is a traditional field of international cooperation. In March 2018, the "Second International Space Exploration Forum (ISEF2)" was held in Tokyo, hosted by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. Representatives from 45 countries and international organizations attended and adopted the Tokyo Principles for future international space exploration. This conference coincided with the timing when the US government indicated that it would suspend the injection of national funds after fiscal year 2025 for the current International Space Station (orbiting about 400 km above the ground), which began construction in 1998, and also presented a new concept for deep space exploration that aims for Mars in the future via a station orbiting the moon 36,000 km from Earth. Active exchanges of opinions took place among space stakeholders from around the world who gathered for the conference regarding this concept. In the future, as discussions move beyond conceptual and technical matters to the specific content of international cooperation, such as the division of labor and responsibilities of each country, it is expected that situations requiring coordination between nations will arise.

Finally, I would like to address security. The National Defense Program Guidelines compiled at the end of last year mention the necessity for Japan to acquire and maintain a strategic advantage in space. Precisely because it is difficult to know what is happening in space from the outside, we must prevent things like kicking each other under the table from occurring. To deter such activities in space, it is first important to firmly grasp what is happening in space ourselves, and Space Situational Awareness (SSA) capabilities are essential for that purpose. International cooperation will be indispensable for monitoring the vast expanse of space.

Space is vast and is an ideal place for international cooperation. And as satellites, which were once heavy and large, are miniaturized, and the number of countries operating satellites or having launch capabilities increases, including emerging countries, the commoditization of space is progressing daily. In addition to conventional broadcasting and communications, the use of data obtained from space is expected to bring various innovations toward achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), such as the prevention and mitigation of natural disasters, management of tropical rainforests, and prevention of malaria through data on water sources and veins.

In this article, I have introduced the points of contact between diplomacy and fields such as UN diplomacy, civil use, exploration, and security. In order for space to function as a platform that provides socio-economic development and safe, secure lives for people in Japan and around the world, it will be necessary to further strengthen international cooperation regarding space in the future.

I served as the Director of the Space Policy Division (and concurrently Director of the Cyber Policy Division) of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for one year starting from the summer before last, although it was a short period. During this time, I received various guidance from Professor Setsuko Aoki (Member of the Space Policy Committee, an advisory committee to the Prime Minister, and Deputy Director of the Center for Space Law established with JAXA within Keio University), and I was somehow able to serve my term. Also, from Professor Emeritus Taizo Yakushiji, who was my supervising professor in the political science seminar, I was asked the question "Is there a Space Policy Division in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs?" as soon as we met at a subcommittee of the Space Policy Committee. Later, I was able to hear directly from member of the House of Representatives Katsuyuki Kawai (Special Advisor for Foreign Affairs to the President of the LDP) about the story behind the establishment of the Space Policy Division in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which he worked hard on during his time as Parliamentary Vice-Minister for Foreign Affairs. I sincerely hope that this short essay will serve as an expression of gratitude to all those who have helped me, including these individuals, and as a contribution to further efforts toward space.