[Feature: The Presidential Election and the Future of America] Ryuichi Kanari: Continuing to Walk the Rust Belt—Why the Trump Phenomenon Persists

2025/02/06

Former President Trump took office again in January. With that, my coverage of "Trump Country" has entered its tenth year. Before last year's presidential election, I was repeatedly asked questions like "Can Trump win?", "Is his support base still rock-solid?", and "Why?", but to be honest, I am still full of uncertainties.

Over the past nine years, my work has been a cycle of having Trump supporters explain their perceptions to me, while I, as a reporter, deepened my own understanding. It has been a process of learning things like, "I see, they support Trump because they view things that way," or "Because of that background, their perception differs from mine."

In this article, I would like to introduce three supporters. I believe "Trump Country" continues to exist today because of supporters like them. I will also touch upon their personalities in the hope that it helps increase the "resolution" of what a "Trump supporter" looks like. These are three individuals among the many who have given me insights since 2015, when I found the Trump phenomenon utterly mysterious. Even after returning to Japan, I find myself recalling my dialogues with them at unexpected moments.

When reporting across rural America, one frequently encounters veterans. Many people also have veterans among their family and friends. Regardless of whether they supported Trump as a person, many of them supported the "America First" and "Non-Interventionism" policies he championed. Beneath the surface of American society lies an "engagement fatigue" regarding the international community. Their honest feelings are: "America cannot be the world's policeman," "Let local people handle overseas problems," and "Prioritize domestic issues over foreign ones." Sometimes, there is a sense of resentment toward policymakers—politicians and bureaucrats—who are not the ones going to the battlefield themselves.

I would like to introduce one memorable individual.

Mike (69 at the time of the interview), whom I met at a bar in Youngstown, Ohio, is a Vietnam veteran. After graduating from high school, he was hired by a local flagship steel mill but was soon drafted and sent to Vietnam. After his discharge, he worked as a mail carrier for 26 years, but since around age 50, he has suffered from physical ailments and PTSD (Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder).

"In the first place, I didn't want to remember or talk about the battlefield, so I just didn't think about it for a long time. I noticed I couldn't watch war movies with a calm mind, but I didn't think this was an illness (the effects of PTSD). When you're young, your head is full of parties with girls and drinking, right? You're busy with work and busy raising kids. But as you get older, you have more time to think deeply. When I started getting symptoms of a hernia and diabetes, I began to wonder, 'Why did this suddenly happen?'"

He was a long-time Democratic supporter. Regarding Trump, while he disliked the lack of "presidential" behavior, he appreciated Trump's stance of advocating "non-intervention" in overseas issues, and voted for him in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.

At the time when the policy of withdrawing U.S. troops from Syria was a hot topic, he said, "I don't think (the chaos in Syria) has anything to do with us in the first place. You don't butt into a fight between a husband and wife in someone else's home, do you? I feel like America is doing that. We're sticking our noses too far into overseas problems. I want U.S. soldiers to be able to return home quickly." That last part—"soldiers returning home quickly"—is a wish voiced by many veterans and their families.

After retiring as a mail carrier, Mike worked a part-time job as a bus driver, taking local veterans to a specialized hospital in the city of Cleveland. As I frequented Youngstown for reporting, he happened to be at the bar counter and said to me, "If you want to know the true face of America, why don't you listen to the stories of veterans? Want to ride my bus?" That became a reality, and it was only when we went to the hospital together that he revealed he was a veteran himself and showed me the surgical scars on his abdomen.

"I was 18 when I was drafted. Shortly after I started working at the steel mill, I went to Vietnam in 1968 and came back in '69. I spent two years in the military, but those two years were counted directly toward my years of service at the steel mill. When I finished my service and returned, I was already in my third year of employment. I felt like my contribution to the country was recognized, and boy, was I happy."

"I've been behind the wheel of the veteran bus for five years. At first, I thought I was unlucky to have PTSD, but when I go to this hospital, I meet many wounded soldiers with much more severe injuries than mine. Some have no arms, some have no legs. And yet they laugh and say, 'I'm grateful I didn't lose my life.' Some even crack jokes. Hearing that, I stopped complaining about the war. As long as my body can move, I want to be of help to the wounded soldiers."

There are many Americans who share Mike's sentiments. This inward-looking orientation of America is likely to have a significant impact on the international community, including Japan.

A message from a political leader to the working class. Joe (61 at the time of the interview), a former steelworker in northeastern Ohio, showed me what that looks like. A long-time union member and Democratic supporter, he became a supporter of the Republican candidate (Trump) for the first time in the 2016 presidential election.

The trigger for Joe's switch was Trump's announcement of his candidacy. It was that public speaking event on June 26, 2015, where Trump declared his candidacy at Trump Tower on Fifth Avenue in New York.

In his candidacy public speaking, Trump claimed they were "bringing drugs and crime," called them "rapists," and asserted he would "build a wall on the southern border (to stop the influx of immigrants)." After that, he proposed a temporary ban on Muslims entering the U.S., and before long, he became a figure drawing the full brunt of media criticism.

However, for Joe, the highlight of the public speaking was not there.

"I'll be 62 this month. My Social Security (pension) payments will start. I support Trump because he said he wouldn't cut Social Security. Other politicians want to cut it. There are even politicians proposing to raise the eligibility age to 70. I hate politicians who say things like that. Those guys just shake hands and kiss babies before the election, and after they're elected, they're at the beck and call of big donors; they can't be trusted." "Politicians live a long time, so they easily say 'we'll raise the pension age.' I can't forgive that. But Trump is different. In his candidacy public speaking, he said he would protect Social Security."

After hearing Joe's story, I listened to the candidacy public speaking again. Trump did indeed mention Social Security twice during the approximately 45-minute speech.

"Unless someone like me brings money back to the nation, Social Security will collapse. Everyone else wants to cut Social Security, but I won't cut it at all. I will bring in funds and save Social Security." "We must protect Medicare (public health insurance for the elderly), Medicaid (public health insurance for low-income earners), and Social Security without cuts."

As Joe pointed out, this was indeed a crucial point. In the analysis of why the Democrats lost even after the 2024 presidential election, it has been noted that workers shifted from the traditional Democratic Party to the Republican Party. It was a message that resonated with middle-aged and older working-class people who had performed grueling physical labor and had been union members.

Another reason Joe was drawn to Trump was his criticism of free trade. From his candidacy public speaking onward, Trump consistently repeated the message that the U.S. was being beaten by other countries in trade, and that well-paying manufacturing jobs were being stolen from the U.S.

After the Trump administration took office, when I pointed out that "there is no sign of 'well-paying jobs' returning to Ohio even under the Trump administration," Joe defended Trump. "How can you expect him to do in a single four-year term what no politician could do for 30 years? If Trump does even 10% of what he promised, I'll be satisfied."

In America today, everyone talks about "division," but Joe spoke from a perspective different from what one hears in urban areas.

"America is made of two different countries. The folks in California don't care about Ohio. They import goods from China and Mexico and put them on trains to send across the country. That's why the jobs in the 'Heartland' disappeared. The goods they import are things we used to make. Since we were making them, there was no need to import them in the first place. When Trump put tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum and prices went up, everyone was crying, but nobody in Ohio is crying."

While the statement contains misunderstandings, this is Joe's perception. In his eyes, both the former Republican and Democratic parties seemed only to promote free trade and prioritize the interests of coastal states like California and New York.

Both the criticism of free trade and the protection of the social security system differ greatly in emphasis from traditional Republican candidates who tended toward "small government." Joe switched to the "Trump Republican Party" because he liked the promises to maintain social security and the criticism of free trade. Those around him were surprised by the switch of a steelworker who had once stood on the front lines of union activities, but he didn't care and drove around town with a "Trump" sign on his car.

In the early days of the Trump era, the language he used was pointed out as being at a "third-grade level." Some reports stated that "Trump is at a mid-fourth-grade level, the lowest since Truman, who was at a sixth-grade level." I think there was an air of mockery in that.

However, looking back now, what can we say? Considering his track record of expanding support to the working class as a candidate for the Republican Party—which had a deep-rooted image as the "party of the wealthy"—couldn't it be said that this was the result of using easy-to-understand language?

When thinking about the "strength" of Trump in expanding his support base, I remember Bob Lowery (61 at the time of the interview), a sandwich shop owner I interviewed in Youngstown, Ohio.

He grew up in a coal mining family; his great-grandfather, grandfather, and father were all coal miners in West Virginia. His father, learning that Youngstown was booming with the steel industry, moved to Ohio in 1951. He worked at the steel mill U.S. Steel for a while and opened a sandwich shop in the 70s. Bob, born in 1956, took it over.

The family supported the Democrats. Because "the Democratic Party is the party for the working class," Bob was also a Democratic supporter in his youth. However, during the Reagan administration in the 80s, he began voting for Republican candidates. He says it was because Reagan "wasn't a politician, but came from being a movie actor, and was fun to watch."

That Bob is now an enthusiastic Trump supporter. When I asked him to explain the reason, he seemed a bit troubled.

"Most of the policies Trump is doing don't particularly make my life easier. I don't know how to answer. Let's see, for example, the recognition of Jerusalem as the capital and moving the embassy. That doesn't help us (our lives). The North Korea issue has nothing to do with me either. Even with tax cuts, every president says similar things, and in the end, I've always paid about the same taxes. That's not (the deciding factor)."

Then, he continued.

"I don't know how to explain it, but I enjoy watching him. Even on hard days, he makes me laugh. He makes me want to keep watching the news. Even with the Israel matter, he says what he wants to say. He's not afraid of anyone."

"Anyway, Trump is a fun person. Americans who grew up like me like fun people. Even when he goes to Congress, he's not afraid of anyone. We don't understand even half of what typical politicians are talking about. Their talk is too difficult. With Trump, who speaks the same language as us, I feel like I could talk normally right here (without getting nervous). I like him. I'll vote for him next time too."

Amidst fierce competition with franchise stores that compete on price, Bob has run his "small business" for nearly 40 years. He carefully selects vegetable suppliers and incorporates customer feedback into product development. He has hired 20 student part-timers and created jobs in the community.

"I wake up at exactly 2:30 every morning. I take a shower. I make coffee and have a cigarette. I read the news online. I go to work at 5 a.m. The shop is empty, of course. Around 5:30, the local paper arrives at the stand in front of the shop. I put in some change and buy it. I read the sports section and the obituaries. After that, I prepare the cooking sauces and knead the meatballs. This preparation time is also my time to relax. Working all by myself. At 9 a.m., my daughter comes to work. That's how the shop starts. What I do hasn't changed at all in 40 years. It's the same ritual."

The three people introduced in this article are all individuals who have worked hard. When they, who are also former Democratic supporters, explain their reasons for supporting Trump for their respective reasons, I feel the reality of Trump's strength.

That said, there are all too serious concerns regarding the next Trump administration.

He shows no interest in the ideals that the international community, including Japan, has expected the U.S. President to defend—ideals such as democracy, liberalism, and multilateralism. Far from showing interest, he has actively damaged the norms and institutions that support democracy.

Most serious of all is the fact that Trump achieved a second victory in last November's presidential election, even though these tendencies were apparent in his first term and the evidence was presented—such as his attempt to obstruct the peaceful transfer of power with inflammatory messages after the 2020 election.

In "How Democracies Die" (Shinchosha), Harvard professors Steven Levitsky and others listed "four indicators of authoritarian behavior": 1) Rejection of (or weak commitment to) democratic rules of the game, 2) Denial of the legitimacy of political opponents, 3) Toleration or encouragement of violence, and 4) Readiness to curtail civil liberties of opponents, including the media. At the time of publication in 2018, Levitsky and others warned that, with the exception of Nixon, not a single major presidential candidate in the past 100 years had met even one of the four criteria, but Trump met all of them. Clearly, the situation has worsened.

In his second term, will Trump try to hold onto his supporters by appealing to non-interventionism (isolationism), protectionism, and anti-illegal immigration? Or, if there is no institutional possibility of a third term, will he stop caring about these constraints (promises)? It is completely unclear to what extent Trump will seriously respond to the expectations of the working-class votes he gathered.

Entrepreneur Elon Musk, who was nominated to head the newly established "Department of Government Efficiency," has not only opposed unionization at his own companies but has also challenged the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB), an independent agency that enforces key labor laws such as the right to organize, collective bargaining rights, and the prohibition of unfair labor practices. He has also shown enthusiasm for massive federal budget cuts.

What will it mean going forward that he, one of the world's wealthiest men, is standing out in such an unusual way? It is also fresh in our memory that Trump praised Musk in a dialogue, saying, "You're the greatest cutter (firer)."

Trump increased his vote share not only in Ohio but across the entire U.S., and among voters across many different demographics. In this sense, "Trump Country" may have neared completion, but whether the lives of the working class actually improve is a completely different matter.

What will happen in the second Trump administration? Along with following the trends in Washington, I want to continue my fixed-point observations of Mike, Joe, and Bob. First, I'll try calling the three of them around the time the inauguration is over. (Titles omitted)