Can Research Stop War? | Yoko Hirose, Director of the Media Center / Professor, Faculty of Policy Management
April 5, 2022
On February 24, I woke up to a different world. Russia had invaded Ukraine, starting a war with no just cause whatsoever. On that day, I lost one of my important research subjects, and the theories I had built throughout my research career turned to dust.
I have been conducting area studies and research on international relations, focusing on the former Soviet Union region. The starting point of my research was the desire to study how to resolve conflicts in the former Soviet Union. I also studied abroad in Azerbaijan, which was embroiled in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Armenia. Recognizing the importance of Russia's actions in understanding conflicts in the former Soviet Union, I have examined Russia's foreign policy from the perspective of the smaller former Soviet states. In that process, I delved deeper into the study of "unrecognized states"—entities that have the trappings of a state but lack international recognition—because Russia uses them to keep its "near abroad" (the former Soviet countries) within its sphere of influence. I also proposed the idea of the "politics of the in-between," where countries neighboring Russia are forced to conduct a balancing act in their diplomacy between Russia, the West, and China. If they disrupt this balance—that is, become too pro-Western—they face punishment from Russia. Furthermore, based on the premise that Russia uses hybrid warfare to maintain its sphere of influence and to confront the West, which threatens that sphere, I have focused my research in recent years on hybrid warfare. Based on the findings of this research, Russia should not have invaded Ukraine. Until the eve of the conflict, I had confidently asserted that there would be no invasion. But the invasion happened. At that moment, the Russia "I knew" vanished, and the arguments I had constructed collapsed. I was tormented by despair, wondering what my years of research had been for and whether humanity is incapable of preventing war.
It seems, however, that I am not the only social science researcher left stunned by the outbreak of this war. For example, proponents of interdependence theory, who argued that peace could be maintained through mutual dependence, are reportedly shocked by the reality that interdependence does not prevent war. Similarly, nuclear deterrence theorists are said to be devastated by the fact that not only do nuclear weapons fail to deter war, but when a belligerent nuclear-armed state starts a war, its nuclear arsenal also deters other countries from intervening. The list of such examples is likely endless.
So, can research not stop war? Unfortunately, it is clear from this turn of events that it cannot.
However, to say that research is meaningless would be incorrect, I believe. Research is fundamentally about analyzing events that have already occurred and exploring questions like how war can be deterred or resolved more quickly. In the post-World War II world, such research has been conducted from various approaches, and new arguments have continually emerged with the changing times. I believe that by analyzing past wars and conflicts, we have been able to apply the lessons learned to future situations. For instance, Ukraine's current strong resistance against the great power of Russia is due not only to international support but also to its thorough analysis of and reflection on its failure to prevent the loss of Crimea and the chaos in its eastern regions in 2014, which allowed it to overcome those issues.
Furthermore, "paradigm shifts" have occurred at various turning points throughout world history. It could be said that we are now in the midst of such a paradigm shift. Perhaps research into a new paradigm is what is needed.
But it is humans who start wars. Every individual has their own background, thoughts, and uniqueness. While it is impossible to conduct research that could encompass the thoughts and actions of every single person, we must accept the reality that this tragedy was caused by one man, President Vladimir Putin. It may become necessary in the future to incorporate into our analysis the reality that a single individual can move history. As Francis Fukuyama argued in his book "Identity" that the desire for recognition drives history, it seems an analysis that delves into the personalities of rulers will be necessary.
Research cannot stop war. However, the role that research can play is surely not zero. My research on the former Soviet Union has been sent back to square one, but I want to tackle it again with a fresh perspective. I also urge those who are shocked by this war to conduct research in their respective fields, and I am convinced that only a comprehensive policy management approach can take on this new paradigm. I can only pray for the day when research can contribute to world peace.