Can the Tokyo Olympics Be Held? | Hiroyuki Ishida, Head of the Major in Public Health, Sport and Health Sciences, Graduate School of Health Management
November 24, 2020
The global spread of the novel coronavirus shows no signs of stopping. Under these circumstances, is it possible to hold the Tokyo 2020 Olympics next year? Many people have expressed various opinions on this question, including emotional ones. I specialize in sports medicine, and in addition to clinical medicine, I have extensive experience in building medical and safety management systems for sporting events. Fundamentally, managing a major event always involves some level of risk, not just from the novel coronavirus. The strategy for safety management comes down to making maximum efforts to minimize risks while also anticipating potential incidents and thoroughly preparing to respond when they occur. To implement this on the ground, the participation of personnel skilled in sports management is essential, in addition to knowledge of the medical sciences. The COVID-19 pandemic, in particular, is an unprecedented event that requires the construction of a completely different framework than before. Much like cancer treatment, it will be necessary to gather wisdom through a multidisciplinary approach.
In holding the Olympics, the greatest challenge is how to guarantee the safety of the athletes (in this case, preventing infection), and creating a system for this is the key. I believe that if this system is in place, the Olympics can be held. In fact, a grand social experiment is already underway, led by the Tokyo 2020 Organising Committee and national sports federations, to gather the basic data needed to build this system. The discussion about what to do with spectators should be considered the next stage.
A major turning point for the implementation of the Tokyo Olympics was the success of the recent US Open tennis tournament (the one Naomi Osaka won). There, they established a safety verification system for athletes and anyone entering the athlete areas by repeatedly conducting PCR tests during the tournament while also restricting their areas of movement. PCR tests were repeated not only upon entry to the tournament but also 48 hours after entry and every four days thereafter. Movement was restricted to travel between the venue and accommodations, and leaving one's lodging was prohibited. Behavior was monitored by surveillance cameras, and any rule violation resulted in immediate disqualification plus a fine. Those placed under this management were the athletes, staff, and tournament officials, and the safe space in which they were enclosed was called the "Bubble." In other words, the system was designed so that the area inside the Bubble was guaranteed to be safe, and the entire tournament would proceed within this Bubble. Ultimately, no clusters occurred during the tournament (I have heard there was only one new positive PCR case), and the competition was completed safely. Of course, this was under the restriction of having no spectators, but at the very least, the demonstration experiment of providing a safe environment for athletes to compete was a success.
Turning to the Tokyo Olympics, can such a Bubble really be created? The scale of the US Open and the Summer Olympics is completely different. With 15,000 to 20,000 people expected to stay in the Olympic Village during the Games, the image is of a giant Bubble covering the village and venues, with repeated PCR tests for everyone. It is a daunting prospect, but the current situation is that many experts are engaged in discussions and preparations to see this through, staking our country's prestige on it. Incidentally, since it is impossible to enclose spectators in a Bubble, they will likely watch the competitions unfolding inside the Bubble from a distance, maintaining a certain separation from the athletes.
In fact, for Keio University, the Bubble is not someone else's problem. Keio University has already agreed with the British Olympic and Paralympic teams to hold their pre-Games training camp at the Hiyoshi Campus, so the need will arise to enclose the British team in some form of Bubble during this camp. On the other hand, before the pandemic, it was anticipated that the training camp would be an opportunity for interaction between our students and the athletes. It would be too sad if we were to simply lend the space and have our Juku students watch the athletes from a distance outside the Bubble. For the sake of the students who have volunteered, I want to explore ways for them to coexist with the British team inside the Bubble, gathering the wisdom of the Keio Gijuku Shachu.