Conflict of Justice | Yoko Hirose, Director of the Media Center / Professor, Faculty of Policy Management
September 15, 2020
More than half a year has already passed since the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) problem began to shake the world, but it can be said that no one has yet found a perfect way to counter this new threat. On August 11, Russia approved a vaccine for COVID-19, but it is something for which Phase 3 clinical trials have not yet been completed. Not only are there greater voices of concern, but the vaccine's effectiveness is also uncertain. Furthermore, even the effectiveness of antibodies has not been proven. In this state of "so many unknowns," the world is searching for the best solutions and countermeasures.
And many politicians and media outlets around the world, including U.S. President Donald Trump, have likened this COVID-19 pandemic to a "war." From the perspective of someone who has studied wars and conflicts, I believe there are significant differences between the COVID-19 pandemic and war, and they should not be equated. However, considering the reality of fighting a formidable enemy daily and having to endure many restrictions, such as self-restraint, until the pandemic subsides, I can well understand the desire to use such a metaphor. I also think it can be pointed out that the element of a "conflict of justice" commonly appears in the search for solutions.
Resolving wars and conflicts is extremely difficult. The countries and parties involved in wars and conflicts each have their own "justice," but this is "incompatible" for their adversaries. Furthermore, the "justice" presented by third countries that mediate is often completely unacceptable to the parties involved. Therefore, in negotiations, while respecting the claims—that is, the "justice"—of the involved countries and parties as much as possible, concessions are sought from each, and a search is made for the narrowest point of compromise that everyone can agree on. However, it is rare for a mutually acceptable point of compromise to emerge, which is why so many unresolved or frozen wars and conflicts arise.
And when considering countermeasures for COVID-19, a difference in standpoint invariably emerges: whether to prioritize the "economy" or to prioritize "preventing the spread of infection." Both of these "justices" are important, and both are correct. However, if the former is prioritized, the infection will spread, leading to many casualties. If the latter is prioritized, the economy will falter, causing mass bankruptcies and unemployment, which could in turn lead to an endless stream of suicides. And governments around the world are struggling to strike this balance as they implement measures. Various policies have been adopted and analyzed, but at present, it is not possible to draw conclusions about their success or failure.
And I strongly recognize that what is needed, both in seeking to resolve wars and in devising measures for the COVID-19 problem, is an approach based on "policy management." To consider these measures, it is necessary to grasp and analyze the causes in a multi-layered and wide-ranging manner, to have a long-term perspective, and to make comprehensive judgments while anticipating that a certain measure will have a domino-like effect over a wide area. It can be said that the wisdom of policy management is what is needed now.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the influenza pandemic of 100 years ago, the so-called "Spanish flu," is often mentioned in the media. It seems that at that time, too, people did not know how to cope and were unable to respond appropriately to the new threat. The fact that it was during the emergency of World War I also spurred the spread of the infection. For example, it appears there was no knowledge of avoiding the "Three Cs" (closed spaces, crowded places, and close-contact settings), which is now common sense to avoid, and the infectious disease seems to have spread as large groups of people gathered as usual. We, 100 years later, view this as "history" and reflect on the many infectious diseases that humanity has overcome. And how will our descendants 100 years from now view this COVID-19 pandemic? I can only pray that the best countermeasures, based on policy management, will be developed as soon as possible through international cooperation, so that we are not thought of as, "Did they really take those measures without even knowing that?"