The World in 2030 | Hideyuki Tokuda (Dean, Graduate School of Media and Governance)
2005.08.08
When you're exhausted in mind and body, anyone might sometimes think, like that famous line, "I want to be a shellfish." But I would still want to be reborn as a human.
In fact, if I were to be reborn, one could think about many such things: What kind of job would I want? What kind of person would I want to be? What country would I want to live in? Or even, what kind of person would I want to marry? But here, let's consider the question, "In what era would I want to be born?"
Why "era," you ask? Well, on July 9-10, I participated in a very interesting retreat hosted by NTT DOCOMO's Mobile Society Research Institute. The purpose of this retreat was to have various people think about what kind of society we will have in the year 2030, using the "backward casting" method. Instead of the "forward casting" method, which is based on predicting the progress of scientific technologies currently under development, we divided the shape of society into four quadrants based on two axes and held discussions. The first axis was whether energy consumption would be significantly reduced or continue to expand. The other axis was whether "cocooning" would advance, where interpersonal communication becomes biased toward only those close to us, or whether it would expand toward more open communities.
One of the participants skillfully organized and distinguished the characteristics of each model, giving them nicknames. The quadrant where both the energy consumption and communication axes expand was the "Cowboy-style American Society." The one where communication expands but energy consumption trends toward conservation was the "Northern European-style Society." The one where energy consumption expands but individual communication tends toward cocooning was the "Silo-style Japanese Society." And the one where both energy is conserved and communication is cocooned was named the "Neo-Edo-style Society."
The "Northern European-style Society" model that I was in charge of was formally named the "Network LOHAS (Lifestyles of Health and Sustainability) Society Model," and we listed the following characteristics. The rebuilding of communities and families closely tied to real-world spaces will progress. An understanding of the importance of "connections with the global environment," conscious of environmental impact, will permeate society, along with the importance of "connections between people." For example, the 4R (Recycle, Reuse, Reduce, Refuse) movement will spread through community networks, and waste from homes and companies will drastically decrease. In addition, real-time environmental monitoring will become possible through large-scale sensor networks and other means, making the environmental impact on society visible.
On the other hand, due to a shift in values from quantitative expansion to qualitative improvement, international competitiveness will decline, but industries creating one-of-a-kind products, technologies, and content will be revitalized. In addition to conventional mass media and personal media, intermediate media will develop, and various network communities will be formed, but network crime throughout society will increase. In response to this problem, movements by organizations like cyber vigilante groups will also become active... (and so on).
It seems that many in the younger generation might desire the gung-ho, "Cowboy-style American Society," but seeing the considerable number of young people who withdraw into themselves, there may also be some who hope for the "Silo-style Japanese Society."
As someone who has experienced an American-style society, I think that if I were to be born again, the Network LOHAS-style society might be a good choice.
(Date Published: 2005/08/08)