Published papers

Abstract How can the digitalization of fiscal operations (GovTech) improve budget processes and the delivery of public expenditure? A simple framework identifies three channels--greater transparency, lower administrative costs, and improved targeting of social assistance--and generates testable predictions. This paper provides systematic cross-country evidence, extending insights from the micro-experimental literature to the macro level. Fixed-effects regressions show that digital budget payments and e-procurement are associated with higher budget transparency and broader social assistance coverage among the poor. However, adopting GovTech strategies alone is insufficient to unlock these gains. Causal forest estimates reveal substantial heterogeneity: with the largest gains in social transfer coverage in countries that have enabling institutions such as digital identification systems. Digital connectivity exhibits nonlinear effect—strong at low levels of access but yielding diminishing returns once near-universal coverage is achieved. These results highlight the importance of sequencing GovTech with foundational enablers, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. JEL Classification: E60, H11, H50, H61, H83, O23, O38

Global crises affect firms unevenly, with some remaining resilient while others contract or exit. This paper examines whether digitalization explains this divergence in performance gaps. Using balance sheet data for 1.8 million listed and non-listed firms across 53 countries, combined with OECD input–output linkages, we construct a comparable firm-level measure of digital input intensity and estimate dynamic responses to uncertainty shocks using state-dependent local projections. We find that digitalized firms adjust more resiliently with smaller declines in sales, while less-digitalized firms suffer deeper and more persistent contractions, particularly among SMEs and service firms. In emerging and developing economies, digital leaders even expand as laggards retreat. Digitalization thus acts as a form of insurance against crises. Because this capability is unevenly distributed, however, it also widens a digital divide. This points to a role of fiscal policies that broaden digital access alongside traditional crisis support.

This paper presents new evidence of the effects of road construction on both domestic and international trade flows in the People’s Republic of China using customs data and information on transport investments in the region. Road construction helped to reduce trade costs significantly from 2000 to 2011. The construction of the Kunming–Bangkok Expressway, in particular, led to local economic growth and higher regional specialization in accordance with comparative advantage, facilitating market integration across borders in the Greater Mekong Subregion.

Building on previous studies, we propose a robust estimation strategy to uncover the causal effects of tax administration strength on tax revenue in 121 countries over the period 2014–2022. Our novel approach utilizes a unique expert survey to construct an Operational Strength Index of tax administration, using the International Survey on Revenue Administration (ISORA), and employs an instrumental variable strategy based on the IMF Fiscal Affairs Department’s Capacity Development programs. We find that strengthening tax administration significantly boosts tax revenue, particularly in emerging and developing economies, and especially in countries with lower levels of informality, stronger institutions, and higher financial development. These findings carry important policy implications for governments and development partners aiming to enhance tax administration capacity and strengthen public finances overall.

This paper explores how digitalization in the corporate sector can boost tax revenue collection,. finding that stronger firm digitalization is associated with higher tax revenues across countries and also higher tax paid across firms. The cross-country estimates illustrate that a one-standard-deviation increase in firm digitalization is associated with an increase in tax revenues-to-GDP by up to 3 percentage points, conditional upon the level of digitalization of tax administration (GovTech). A firm-level analsis reveals that firm digitalization significantly improves tax compliance among high-risk taxpayers, such as small and informal enterprises, particularly in the service sector. This indicates that digitalization not only broadens the corporate tax base but also plays a crucial role in improving tax compliance. Moreover, both country and firm-level analyses reveal a significant synergy between firm digitalization and GovTech, undescoring the importance of promoting both to enhance tax collection. These analyses also suggest that, in developing countries, it is essential to create enabling environments for firm digitalization and GovTech and address any constraints to achieve their synergy effects.