Published papers

Importance: Since the onset of the COVID-19 outbreak, an extremely high number of studies have been published worldwide, with variable quality. Research trends of highly cited papers may enable identification of influential research, providing insights for new research ideas; it is therefore important to investigate trends and focus on more influential publications in COVID-19-related studies. Objective: To examine research trends of highly cited studies by conducting a bibliometric analysis of highly cited studies in the previous 2 months about COVID-19. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cross-sectional study, Essential Science Indicators (ESI) and Web of Science (WOS) Core Collection were used to find studies with a focus on COVID-19 that were identified as highly cited studies from Clarivate Analytics. Highly cited studies were extracted from the ESI database bimonthly between January 2020 and December 2022. Bibliographic details were extracted from WOS and combined with ESI data using unique accession numbers. The number of highly cited studies was counted based on the fractional counting method. Data were analyzed from January through July 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: The number of publications by research field, country, and institutional affiliation. Results: The number of published COVID-19-related highly cited studies was 14 studies in January to February 2020, peaked at 1292 studies in November to December 2021, and showed a downward trend thereafter, reaching 649 studies in November to December 2022. China had the highest number of highly cited studies per 2-month period until July to August 2020 (138.3 studies vs 103.7 studies for the US, the second highest country), and the US had the greatest number of highly cited studies afterward (159.9 studies vs 157.6 studies for China in September to October 2020). Subsequently, the number of highly cited studies per 2-month period published by China declined (decreasing from 179.7 studies in November to December 2020 to 40.7 studies in September to October 2022), and the UK produced the second largest number of such studies in May to June 2021 (171.3 studies). Similarly, the top 5 institutional affiliations in May to June 2020 by highly cited studies per 2-month period were from China (Huazhong University: 14.7 studies; University of Hong Kong: 6.8 studies; Wuhan University: 4.8 studies; Zhejiang University: 4.5 studies; Fudan University: 4.5 studies), while in November to December 2022, the top 5 institutions were in the US and UK (Harvard University: 15.0 studies; University College London: 11.0 studies; University of Oxford: 10.2 studies; University of London: 9.9 studies; Imperial College London: 5.8 studies). Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that the total number of highly cited studies related to COVID-19 peaked at the end of 2021 and showed a downward trend until the end of 2022, while the origin of these studies shifted from China to the US and UK.

Objectives: In open-label trials, the details of the adjudicators are essential to evaluate the risk of detection bias. We aimed to describe how the adjudicators of progression-free survival (PFS) and objective response rate (ORR) have been reported in open-label trials of anticancer drugs. Study Design and Setting: A literature search was conducted using MEDLINE via PubMed. We included open-label, parallel-group superiority randomized trials that investigated the PFS and ORR of anticancer drugs for solid tumors. After screening based on the titles and abstracts, 200 articles were randomly selected from 2017 to 2021. The researchers independently checked the eligibility and collected the adjudicators’ information in the protocol, registry, and original article. Results: One hundred fifty five studies reported the PFS and ORR. Approximately half of the studies did not report adjudicators (47.7% in PFS and 47.6% in ORR) in the published articles. The inconsistency between the protocol/registry and the published article was 31.0% for PFS and 33.5% for ORR. The prespecified outcomes were not reported in 5.2% of the studies evaluating PFS and 4.5% evaluating ORR. Conclusion: This methodological review found that adjudicators were poorly and inconsistently reported between the protocol/registry and the final publication in open-label trials of anticancer drugs.

Background and Objectives: The standardized mean difference (SMD) can be calculated from different mean differences (MDs) and standard deviations (SDs). This study aims to investigate how clinical trials calculated, reported and interpreted the SMD, and to examine the variation between different SMDs. Methods: We searched the PubMed for randomized controlled trials of general medicine and psychiatry that estimated SMDs. We explored how the SMD was computed and interpreted. We calculated SMDs based on different MDs and SDs, and the variation in these SMD estimates for each study. Results: We included 161 articles. Various MDs and SDs were used to calculate SMDs, yet 69.0% studies failed to provide sufficient details. Variations in SMD estimates using different MDs and SDs in one study could be substantial (median of the absolute differences was 0.3, interquartile range IQR 0.17 to 0.53). However, 68.3% studies interpreted the SMD based on the same reference, Cohen's rule of thumb. The largest variations were observed in studies with small sample sizes and large reported effects. Conclusion: SMDs using different MDs and SDs could vary considerably, but the report was often insufficient and the interpretation was oversimplified. To avoid selective reporting bias and misinterpretation, prespecifying and reporting the method and interpreting the result from multiple perspectives are desirable.

Aim: To evaluate the relationship between nocturia and medical history of nocturnal enuresis: two conditions where diurnal urination rhythm is disturbed. Methods: The Nagahama study is a longitudinal population-based health survey involving people aged 30–75 years in Nagahama city, Japan. Our analysis included 5,402 participants who completed enuresis and International Prostate Symptom Score questionnaires. Associations between nocturnal enuresis and nocturia were evaluated cross-sectionally and longitudinally with three models: (1) univariate analysis; (2) adjusted for basic characteristics (e.g., age, sex, body mass index, activity, alcohol, and smoking); and (3) adjusted for basic and clinical variables (e.g., hyperglycemia, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, renal insufficiency, insomnia, obstructive sleep apnea, and mental health). Results: In total, 1,613 participants (29.9%) had a medical history of enuresis. The mean night-time frequency was 0.73 at baseline and 0.85 at the 5-year follow-up. The cross-sectional analysis showed participants with a medical history of enuresis had night-time frequency more often than those without this history (0.84 vs. 0.68, p <.0001). Significant differences were observed in Models 2 (p <.0001) and 3 (p <.0001). The longitudinal analysis showed nocturia progression was significantly related to a history of enuresis, with odds ratios of 1.32 (p <.0001) in Model 1, 1.21 (p <.01) in Model 2, and 1.22 (p <.01) in Model 3. Conclusions: Medical history of enuresis during school age was significantly related to nocturia in adulthood in the cross-sectional analysis, and to progression to nocturia in the longitudinal analysis. These two conditions may possess a common causative association.

Importance: Although the cognitive components of behavioral therapy for overactive bladder (OAB) are widely recognized, there is a lack of studies evaluating the effectiveness of multicomponent interventions that include cognitive components as a treatment for OAB. Objective: To examine the efficacy of a multicomponent intervention in improving health-related quality of life (HRQOL) for women with moderate to severe OAB. Design, Setting, and Participants: This multicenter, open-label, randomized clinical trial was conducted in Japan among women aged 20 to 80 years who had moderate to severe OAB. Participants were recruited from 4 institutions between January 16, 2020, and December 31, 2022, through self-referral via advertisement or referral from the participating institutions. Interventions: Participants were randomized 1:1 by minimization algorithm using an internet-based central cloud system to four 30-minute weekly sessions of a multicomponent intervention or waiting list. Both groups continued to receive baseline treatment throughout the study period. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the least-squares mean changes from baseline through week 13 in HRQOL total scores of the OAB questionnaire between 2 groups. Secondary outcomes included OAB symptom score and frequency volume chart. Results: A total of 79 women were randomized to either the intervention group (39 participants; mean [SD] age, 63.5 [14.6] years) or the waiting list control group (40 participants; mean [SD] age, 63.5 [12.9] years). One participant from each group dropped out from the allocated intervention, while 5 participants in the intervention group and 2 in the control group dropped out from the primary outcome assessment at week 13. Thirty-six participants (92.3%) in the intervention group and 35 (87.5%) in the control group had moderate OAB. The change in HRQOL total score from baseline to week 13 was 23.9 points (95% CI, 18.4-29.5 points) in the intervention group and 11.3 points (95% CI, 6.2-16.4 points) in the waiting list group, a significant difference of 12.6 points (95% CI, 6.6-18.6 points; P <.001). Similar superiority of the intervention was confirmed for frequency of micturition and urgency but not for OAB symptom score. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings demonstrate that a multicomponent intervention improves HRQOL for women with moderate to severe OAB and suggest that the cognitive component may be an effective treatment option for women with OAB. Trial Registration: UMIN Clinical Trials Registry Identifier: UMIN000038513.

Objectives To find the optimal treatment duration with antibiotics for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in adults. Design Systematic review and duration-effect meta-analysis. Data sources MEDLINE, Embase and CENTRAL through 25 August 2021. Eligibility criteria All randomised controlled trials comparing the same antibiotics used at the same daily dosage but for different durations for CAP in adults. Both outpatients and inpatients were included but not those admitted to intensive care units. We imposed no date, language or publication status restriction. Data extraction and synthesis Data extraction by two independent reviewers. We conducted a random-effects, one-stage duration-effect meta-analysis with restricted cubic splines. We tested the non-inferiority with the prespecified non-inferiority margin of 10% examined against 10 days. The primary outcome was clinical improvement on day 15 (range 7-45 days). Secondary outcomes: all-cause mortality, serious adverse events and clinical improvement on day 30 (15-60 days). Results We included nine trials (2399 patients with a mean (SD) age of 61.2 (22.1); 39% women). The duration-effect curve was monotonic with longer duration leading to a lower probability of improvement, and shorter treatment duration (3-9 days) was likely to be non-inferior to 10-day treatment. Harmful outcome curves indicated no association. The weighted average percentage of the primary outcome in the 10-day treatment arms was 68%. Using that average, the absolute clinical improvement rates of the following durations were: 3-day treatment 75% (95% CI: 68% to 81%), 5-day treatment 72% (95% CI: 66% to 78%) and 7-day treatment 69% (95% CI: 61% to 76%). Conclusions Shorter treatment duration (3-5 days) probably offers the optimal balance between efficacy and treatment burden for treating CAP in adults if they achieved clinical stability. However, the small number of included studies and the overall moderate-to-high risk of bias may compromise the certainty of the results. Further research on the shorter duration range is required. PROSPERO registration number CRD 42021273357.

Background: An accurate prediction model could identify high-risk subjects of incident Overactive bladder (OAB) among the general population and enable early prevention which may save on the related medical costs. However, no efficient model has been developed for predicting incident OAB. In this study, we will develop a model for predicting the onset of OAB at 5-year in the general population setting. Methods: Data will be obtained from the Nagahama Cohort Project, a longitudinal, general population cohort study. The baseline characteristics were measured between Nov 28, 2008 and Nov 28, 2010, and follow-up was performed every 5 years. From the total of 9,764 participants (male: 3,208, female: 6,556) at baseline, we will exclude participants who could not attend the follow-up assessment and those who were defined as having OAB at baseline. The outcome will be incident OAB defined using the Overactive Bladder Symptom Score (OABSS) at follow-up assessment. Baseline questionnaires (demographic, health behavior, comorbidities and OABSS) and blood test data will be included as predictors. We will develop a logistic regression model utilizing shrinkage methods (LASSO penalization method). Model performance will be evaluated by discrimination and calibration. Net benefit will be evaluated by decision curve analysis. We will perform an internal validation and a temporal validation of the model. We will develop a web-based application to visualize the prediction model and facilitate its use in clinical practice. Discussion: This will be the first study to develop a model to predict the incidence of OAB.

Cross-sectional relationships between nocturia and sleep problems have been well evaluated but the risk association for each incidence is scarcely reported. This analysis included 8076 participants of the Nagahama study in Japan (median age 57, 31.0% male) and associations between nocturia and self-reported, sleep-related problems (poor sleep) were evaluated cross-sectionally. Causal effects on each new-onset case were analyzed longitudinally after 5 years. Three models were applied: univariable analysis, adjustment for basic variables (i.e., demographic and lifestyle variables) and full adjustment for basic and clinical variables. The overall prevalences of poor sleep and nocturia were 18.6% and 15.5%, while poor sleep was positively associated with nocturia (OR = 1.85, p < 0.001) and vice versa (OR = 1.90, p < 0.001). Among 6579 good sleep participants, 18.5% developed poor sleep. Baseline nocturia was positively associated with this incident poor sleep (OR = 1.49, p < 0.001, full adjustment). Among 6824 non-nocturia participants, the nocturia incidence was 11.3%. Baseline poor sleep was positively associated with this incident nocturia (OR = 1.26, p = 0.026); such associations were significant only in women (OR = 1.44, p = 0.004) and under-50-year-old groups (OR = 2.82, p < 0.001), after full adjustment. Nocturia and poor sleep associate with each other. Baseline nocturia can induce new-onset poor sleep while baseline poor sleep may induce new-onset nocturia only in women.

Background: A new ready-to-drink premixed high-alcohol-content beverage, called strong chū-hai, was launched in Japan, and more recently, in Taiwan and Australia. We aimed to examine the popularity and association of strong chū-hai with individual alcohol use, both of which remained unclear. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study using data from the Japan “Society and New Tobacco” Internet Survey conducted from February 1 to 28, 2022, in Japan. We enrolled 27,993 respondents (aged 15 to 81 years; male 48.5%), including 15,083 current alcohol users. Using inverse probability weighting of data from the 2016 Comprehensive Survey of Living Conditions on Health and Welfare, we estimated the weighted proportions of strong chū-hai users among all respondents and constructed multivariable logistic regression models to estimate the weighted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of strong chū-hai use for hazardous and harmful alcohol use, defined as a score ≥8 of the Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test, among current alcohol users. Results: Among all respondents, 56.2% (weighted proportions: past, 35.9%; and current, 20.3%) drank strong chū-hai. Among drinkers, both past and current strong chū-hai use, compared to never use, were associated with hazardous and harmful alcohol use (past, OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.42 to 2.12; current, OR 2.19, 95% CI 1.79 to 2.69). Conclusions: Our study found that more than half of the respondents experienced strong chū-hai consumption, suggesting that it is widely used in Japan. In addition, both past and current strong chū-hai use were associated with hazardous and harmful alcohol use among current alcohol users.

Objectives Researchers have identified cases in which newspaper stories have exaggerated the results of medical studies reported in original articles. Moreover, the exaggeration sometimes begins with journal articles. We examined what proportion of the studies quoted in newspaper stories were confirmed. Methods We identified newspaper stories from 2000 that mentioned the effectiveness of certain treatments or preventions based on original studies from 40 main medical journals. We searched for subsequent studies until June 2022 with the same topic and stronger research design than each original study. The results of the original studies were verified by comparison with those of subsequent studies. Results We identified 164 original articles from 1298 newspaper stories and randomly selected 100 of them. Four studies were not found to be effective in terms of the primary outcome, and 18 had no subsequent studies. Of the remaining studies, the proportion of confirmed studies was 68.6% (95% CI 58.1% to 77.5%). Among the 59 confirmed studies, 13 of 16 studies were considered to have been replicated in terms of effect size. However, the results of the remaining 43 studies were not comparable. Discussion In the dichotomous judgement of effectiveness, about two-thirds of the results were nominally confirmed by subsequent studies. However, for most confirmed results, it was impossible to determine whether the effect sizes were stable. Conclusions Newspaper readers should be aware that some claims made by high-quality newspapers based on high-profile journal articles may be overturned by subsequent studies within the next 20 years.

Background and Aims: Night-shift work disturbs sleep and is associated with poor health conditions among workers. We aimed to investigate the association between night-shift work and gambling among workers and the association between night-shift work and problem gambling in working and gambling participants. Methods: This cross-sectional study used data from an online survey conducted between February 6 and 27, 2023 in Japan. A total of 21,134 workers participated in this study, including 9,739 respondents who had gambled in the past year. We estimated the association between night-shift work and gambling among workers and the association between night-shift work and problem gambling among those who gambled at the survey. We defined problem gambling as a score ≥ 8 on the Problem Gambling Severity Index. All estimates were weighted using a nationally representative survey in Japan. We fitted multivariable weighted logistic regression models after adjusting for 14 confounders. Results: The weighted prevalence of gambling among non-night and night-shift workers was 42.1 % and 55.4 %, respectively. When focusing on workers gambling in the survey, the prevalence of problem gambling among non-night and night-shift workers was 8.8 % and 24.2 %, respectively. The weighted multivariable logistic regression analyses showed that night-shift work was associated with gambling participation among workers (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.39, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.25–1.53, p < 0.001). In addition, night-shift work was associated with problem gambling among those who gambled (aOR 1.94, 95 % CI 1.57–2.40, p < 0.001). Conclusions: Night-shift work was associated with gambling among workers and with problem gambling among those who gambled.

Objectives: Drug-resistant overactive bladder (OAB) represents an unmet medical need in that treatment options are limited. We developed a treatment model based on cognitive behavioral therapy and evaluated its feasibility and acceptability for drug-resistant OAB in women. Methods: This was an open-label, single-arm, multicenter pilot study. We defined drug-resistant OAB as OAB with moderate to severe symptoms despite pharmacotherapy for more than 12 weeks. A face-to-face intervention was prescribed as six sessions (30 minutes each) over 6 to 12 weeks according to a treatment manual. The effects were assessed by self-reported questionnaires and frequency voiding charts (FVC) at baseline, during intervention, immediately after intervention, and at follow-up. Results: Ten patients participated in this study. Median age was 72 years, median OAB Symptom Score was nine points, and median duration of prior treatment for OAB was 5.5 years at baseline. Two participants dropped out of the study. Among the remaining patients, the scores of the OAB Questionnaire subscales improved (effect size: 0.75-1.73), and the mean urinary frequency in the FVC also improved from baseline (9.0 times, SD: 2.1) to follow-up (6.2 times, SD: 1.2). All participants were satisfied with the intervention. There were no adverse events during this study. Conclusions: The new treatment based on cognitive behavioral therapy was well tolerated and feasible in women with drug-resistant OAB. Further randomized research is needed to rigorously evaluate the efficacy of the treatment.

Importance: Chronic insomnia disorder is highly prevalent, disabling, and costly. Cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia (CBT-I), comprising various educational, cognitive, and behavioral strategies delivered in various formats, is the recommended first-line treatment, but the effect of each component and delivery method remains unclear. Objective: To examine the association of each component and delivery format of CBT-I with outcomes. Data Sources: PubMed, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, PsycInfo, and International Clinical Trials Registry Platform from database inception to July 21, 2023. Study Selection: Published randomized clinical trials comparing any form of CBT-I against another or a control condition for chronic insomnia disorder in adults aged 18 years and older. Insomnia both with and without comorbidities was included. Concomitant treatments were allowed if equally distributed among arms. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Two independent reviewers identified components, extracted data, and assessed trial quality. Random-effects component network meta-analyses were performed. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was treatment efficacy (remission defined as reaching a satisfactory state) posttreatment. Secondary outcomes included all-cause dropout, self-reported sleep continuity, and long-term remission. Results: A total of 241 trials were identified including 31452 participants (mean [SD] age, 45.4 [16.6] years; 21048 of 31452 [67%] women). Results suggested that critical components of CBT-I are cognitive restructuring (remission incremental odds ratio [iOR], 1.68; 95% CI, 1.28-2.20) third-wave components (iOR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.10-2.03), sleep restriction (iOR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.04-2.13), and stimulus control (iOR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.00-2.05). Sleep hygiene education was not essential (iOR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.77-1.32), and relaxation procedures were found to be potentially counterproductive(iOR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.64-1.02). In-person therapist-led programs were most beneficial (iOR, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.19-2.81). Cognitive restructuring, third-wave components, and in-person delivery were mainly associated with improved subjective sleep quality. Sleep restriction was associated with improved subjective sleep quality, sleep efficiency, and wake after sleep onset, and stimulus control with improved subjective sleep quality, sleep efficiency, and sleep latency. The most efficacious combination - consisting of cognitive restructuring, third wave, sleep restriction, and stimulus control in the in-person format - compared with in-person psychoeducation, was associated with an increase in the remission rate by a risk difference of 0.33 (95% CI, 0.23-0.43) and a number needed to treat of 3.0 (95% CI, 2.3-4.3), given the median observed control event rate of 0.14. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings suggest that beneficial CBT-I packages may include cognitive restructuring, third-wave components, sleep restriction, stimulus control, and in-person delivery but not relaxation. However, potential undetected interactions could undermine the conclusions. Further large-scale, well-designed trials are warranted to confirm the contribution of different treatment components in CBT-I.

Objectives In anticancer clinical trials, particularly open-label trials, central reviewers are recommended to evaluate progression-free survival (PFS) and objective response rate (ORR) to avoid detection bias of local investigators. However, it is not clear whether the bias has been adequately identified, or to what extent it consistently distorts the results. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the detection bias in oncological open-label trials by confirming whether local investigators overestimate the PFS and ORR compared with the findings of central reviewers. Design Meta-epidemiological study. Data sources MEDLINE via PubMed from 1 January 2010 to 30 June 2021. Eligibility criteria for selecting studies Open-label, parallel-group superiority, randomised trials of anticancer drugs that adjudicated PFS or ORR by both central reviewers and local investigators. Review methods We assessed the values for the same outcome (PFS and ORR) adjudicated by both central reviewers and local investigators. A random-effects model was used to estimate the ratio of HR (RHR) for PFS and the ratio of OR (ROR) for ORR between central reviewers and local investigators. An RHR lower than 1 and an ROR higher than 1 indicated an overestimation of the effect estimated by local investigators. Results We retrieved 1197 records of oncological open-label trials after full-text screening. We identified 171 records (PFS: 149 records, ORR: 136 records) in which both central reviewers and local investigators were used, and included 114 records (PFS: 92 records, ORR: 74 records) for meta-analyses. While the RHR for PFS was 0.95 (95% CI 0.91 to 0.98), the ROR of ORR was 1.00 (95% CI 0.91 to 1.09). The results remained unchanged in the prespecified sensitivity analysis. Conclusions This meta-epidemiological study found that overestimation of local investigators has a small impact on evaluating PFS and ORR in oncological open-label trials. However, a limitation of this study is that it did not include data from all trials; hence, the results may not fully evaluate detection bias. The necessity of central reviewers in oncological open-label trials needs to be assessed by further studies that overcome this limitation. Trial registration number CTR-UMIN000044623.

Objectives: We aimed to develop models to predict new-onset overactive bladder in 5 years using a large prospective cohort of the general population. Methods: This is a secondary analysis of a longitudinal cohort study in Japan. The baseline characteristics were measured between 2008 and 2010, with follow-ups every 5 years. We included subjects without overactive bladder at baseline and with follow-up data 5 years later. Overactive bladder was assessed using the overactive bladder symptom score. Baseline characteristics (demographics, health behaviors, comorbidities, and overactive bladder symptom scores) and blood test data were included as predictors. We developed two competing prediction models for each sex based on logistic regression with penalized likelihood (LASSO). We chose the best model separately for men and women after evaluating models' performance in terms of discrimination and calibration using an internal validation via 200 bootstrap resamples and a temporal validation. Results: We analyzed 7218 participants (male: 2238, female: 4980). The median age was 60 and 55 years, and the number of new-onset overactive bladder was 223 (10.0%) and 288 (5.8%) per 5 years in males and females, respectively. The in-sample estimates for C-statistic, calibration intercept, and slope for the best performing models were 0.77 (95% confidence interval 0.74–0.80), 0.28 and 1.15 for males, and 0.77 (95% confidence interval 0.74–0.80), 0.20 and 1.08 for females. Internal and temporal validation gave broadly similar estimates of performance, indicating low optimism. Conclusion: We developed risk prediction models for new-onset overactive bladder among men and women with good predictive ability.

Importance: Current evidence remains ambiguous regarding whether biologics should be added to conventional treatment of rheumatoid arthritis for specific patients, which may cause potential overuse or treatment delay. Objectives: To estimate the benefit of adding biologics to conventional antirheumatic drugs for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis given baseline characteristics. Data Sources: Cochrane CENTRAL, Scopus, MEDLINE, and the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform were searched for articles published from database inception to March 2, 2022. Study Selection: Randomized clinical trials comparing certolizumab plus conventional antirheumatic drugs with placebo plus conventional drugs were selected. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Individual participant data of the prespecified outcomes and covariates were acquired from the Vivli database. A 2-stage model was fitted to estimate patient-specific relative outcomes of adding certolizumab vs conventional drugs only. Stage 1 was a penalized logistic regression model to estimate the baseline expected probability of the outcome regardless of treatment using baseline characteristics. Stage 2 was a bayesian individual participant data meta-regression model to estimate the relative outcomes for a particular baseline expected probability. Patient-specific results were displayed interactively on an application based on a 2-stage model. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was low disease activity or remission at 3 months, defined by 3 disease activity indexes (ie, Disease Activity Score based on the evaluation of 28 joints, Clinical Disease Activity Index, or Simplified Disease Activity Index). Results: Individual participant data were obtained from 3790 patients (2996 female [79.1%] and 794 male [20.9%]; mean [SD] age, 52.7 [12.3] years) from 5 large randomized clinical trials for moderate to high activity rheumatoid arthritis with usable data for 22 prespecified baseline covariates. Overall, adding certolizumab was associated with a higher probability of reaching low disease activity. The odds ratio for patients with an average baseline expected probability of the outcome was 6.31 (95% credible interval, 2.22-15.25). However, the benefits differed in patients with different baseline characteristics. For example, the estimated risk difference was smaller than 10% for patients with either low or high baseline expected probability. Conclusions and Relevance: In this individual participant data meta-analysis, adding certolizumab was associated with more effectiveness for rheumatoid arthritis in general. However, the benefit was uncertain for patients with low or high baseline expected probability, for whom other evaluations were necessary. The interactive application displaying individual estimates may help with treatment selection..