Published papers

BACKGROUND: Deviations of hemoglobin from normal levels may be a factor in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk; however, conclusive evidence is lacking. In addition, preclinical conditions may influence hemoglobin concentrations, but studies focusing on reverse causation are limited. Thus, we examined the relationship between hemoglobin concentrations and CVD mortality risk, considering reverse causation.Methods and Results: In a prospective cohort representative of the general Japanese population (1990-2015), we studied 7,217 individuals (mean age 52.3 years; 4,219 women) without clinical CVD at baseline. Participants were categorized into sex-specific hemoglobin quintiles (Q1-Q5) and data were analyzed using the Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for possible confounders. During a 25-year follow-up, 272 men and 334 women died from CVD. Adjusted hazard ratios for CVD mortality across sex-specific quintiles, using Q3 as the reference, were significantly higher for Q1 (1.40; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.08-1.82) and Q5 (1.49; 95% CI 1.14-1.96), and remained significant after excluding deaths within the first 5 years of follow-up to consider reverse causation (1.35 [95% CI 1.02-1.79] and 1.45 [95% CI 1.09-1.94], respectively). A similar U-shaped association was seen between transferrin saturation levels and CVD mortality, but after excluding deaths within the first 5 years the association was significant only for Q1. CONCLUSIONS: Low and high hemoglobin concentrations were associated with an increased risk of CVD mortality.

AIMS: It remains inconclusive regarding alcohol intake and stroke risk because determining risk factors depends on the specific pathogenesis of stroke. We used the variant rs671 in the aldehyde dehydrogenase 2 gene (ALDH2) as an instrument to investigate the causal role of alcohol intake in cerebral small- and large-vessel diseases. METHODS: We studied 682 men (mean age, 70.0 years), without stroke, in a cross-sectional Mendelian randomization analysis. We assessed small-vessel diseases (SVDs), which comprised lacunar infarcts, white matter hyperintensities (WMHs), and cerebral microbleeds, and large intracranial artery stenosis (ICAS) on brain magnetic resonance imaging. RESULTS: The median (25%tiles, 75%tiles) alcohol consumption by ALDH2-rs671 inactive A allele (n=313 [45.9%]) and non-A allele (n=369 [54.1%]) carriers was 3.5 (0.0, 16.0) and 32.0 (12.9, 50.0) g/day, respectively. Non-A allele carriers had higher prevalent hypertension and lower low-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations than A allele carriers. In age-adjusted ordinal logistic regression for graded burden, odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) for total SVDs, lacunar infarcts, WMHs, cerebral microbleeds, and ICAS in non-Aallele carriers were 1.46 (1.09-1.94), 1.41 (0.95-2.08), 1.39 (1.05-1.85), 1.69 (1.06-2.69), and 0.70 (0.50-0.98), respectively, compared with A allele carriers. These associations attenuated to statistical non-significance after considering covariates and amount of alcohol intake. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest a positive association of alcohol consumption with risk of cerebral SVDs and its inverse association with risk of large-vessel disease through intermediaries, such as hypertension or low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. These findings provide insight into potential causal mechanisms linking alcohol consumption with stroke risk.

Aim: A pro-inflammatory diet may increase the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality. However, this remains inconclusive as there is yet no study using a dietary record method that has been conducted in a large general population. Furthermore, an underestimation of the pro-inflammatory diet may exist due to the unmeasured effect of salt intake. Thus, in this study, we aimed to examine how pro-inflammatory diet is associated with the long-term risk of all-cause and CVD mortality in a representative Japanese population. Methods: A national nutrition survey was conducted throughout Japan in 1980. After considering the exclusion criteria, 9284 individuals (56% women aged 30–92 years) were included in this study. In total, 20 dietary parameters derived from 3-day weighed dietary records were used to calculate the dietary inflammatory index (DII). The causes of death were monitored until 2009. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs). Stratified analysis according to salt intake level was also performed. Results: Compared with the lowest quartile of DII, multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% confidence intervals) in the highest quartile were 1.28 (1.15, 1.41), 1.35 (1.14, 1.60), 1.48 (1.15, 1.92), 1.62 (1.11, 2.38), and 1.34 (1.03, 1.75) for all-cause mortality, CVD mortality, atherosclerotic CVD mortality, coronary heart disease mortality, and stroke mortality, respectively. Stratified analysis revealed stronger associations among individuals with higher salt intake. Conclusions: As per our findings, a pro-inflammatory diet was determined to be positively associated with the long-term risk of all-cause and CVD mortality in a representative Japanese population. Thus, considering both salt intake and pro-inflammatory diet is deemed crucial for a comprehensive assessment of CVD risk.

Onco-hypertension has been proposed, although associations of high blood pressure (BP) with cancer risk remain inconsistent. We examined associations of high BP with risk of mortality from stomach, lung, colorectal, liver, and pancreatic cancers independent of possible confounders in an analysis that excluded deaths within the first 5 years of follow-up to consider the reverse causality. In a prospective cohort representative of the general Japanese population (1980–2009), we studied 8088 participants (mean age, 48.2 years; 56.0% women) without clinical cardiovascular disease or antihypertensive medication at baseline. Fine-Gray competing risks regression was used to estimate hazard ratios for 10 mmHg higher BP adjusted for confounders including smoking, alcohol-drinking, obesity, and diabetes mellitus. During 29-year follow-up, 159 (2.0%), 159 (2.0%), 89 (1.1%), 86 (1.1%), and 68 (0.8%) participants died from stomach, lung, colorectal, liver, and pancreatic cancers, respectively. We observed a positive association of high BP with risk of colorectal cancer mortality but not with mortality risks from any other cancers. The association with colorectal cancer mortality for systolic and diastolic BP was evident in those aged 30–49 years (hazard ratios 1.43 [95% confidence interval, 1.22–1.67] and 1.86 [1.32–2.62], respectively) but not in those aged 50–59 years and ≥60 years (P for age interaction <0.01 for systolic and diastolic BP). The associations with colorectal cancer mortality were similar in the analyses stratified by smoking, alcohol-drinking, obesity, and diabetic status. In conclusion, high BP among young to middle-aged adults was independently associated with risk of colorectal cancer mortality later in life. [Figure not available: see fulltext.].

AIMS: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is known to be associated with atherosclerosis. This study focused on upstream changes in the process by which NAFLD leads to atherosclerosis. The study aimed to confirm the association between NAFLD and the cardio-ankle vascular index (CAVI), an indicator of subclinical atherosclerosis, and explore metabolites involved in both by assessing 94 plasma polar metabolites. METHODS: A total of 928 Japanese community-dwellers (306 men and 622 women) were included in this study. The association between NAFLD and CAVI was examined using a multivariable regression model adjusted for confounders. Metabolites commonly associated with NAFLD and CAVI were investigated using linear mixed-effects models in which batch numbers of metabolite measurements were used as a random-effects variable, and false discovery rate-adjusted p-values were calculated. To determine the extent to which these metabolites mediated the association between NAFLD and CAVI, mediation analysis was conducted. RESULTS: NAFLD was positively associated with CAVI (coefficients [95% Confidence intervals (CI)]=0.23 [0.09-0.37]; p=0.001). A total of 10 metabolites were involved in NAFLD and CAVI, namely, branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs; valine, leucine, and isoleucine), aromatic amino acids (AAAs; tyrosine and tryptophan), alanine, proline, glutamic acid, glycerophosphorylcholine, and 4-methyl-2-oxopentanoate. Mediation analysis showed that BCAAs mediated more than 20% of the total effect in the association between NAFLD and CAVI. CONCLUSIONS: NAFLD was associated with a marker of atherosclerosis, and several metabolites related to insulin resistance, including BCAAs and AAAs, could be involved in the process by which NAFLD leads to atherosclerosis.

Background: The application of metabolomics-based profiles in environmental epidemiological studies is a promising approach to refine the process of health risk assessment. We aimed to identify potential metabolomics-based profiles in urine and plasma for the detection of relatively low-level cadmium (Cd) exposure in large population-based studies. Method: We analyzed 123 urinary metabolites and 94 plasma metabolites detected in fasting urine and plasma samples collected from 1,412 men and 2,022 women involved in the Tsuruoka Metabolomics Cohort Study. Regression analysis was performed for urinary N-acetyl-beta-D-glucosaminidase (NAG), plasma, and urinary metabolites as dependent variables, and urinary Cd (U-Cd, quartile) as an independent variable. The multivariable regression model included age, gender, systolic blood pressure, smoking, rice intake, BMI, glycated hemoglobin, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, alcohol consumption, physical activity, educational history, dietary energy intake, urinary Na/K ratio, and uric acid. Pathway-network analysis was carried out to visualize the metabolite networks linked to Cd exposure. Result: Urinary NAG was positively associated with U-Cd, but not at lower concentrations (Q2). Among urinary metabolites in the total population, 45 metabolites showed associations with U-Cd in the unadjusted and adjusted models after adjusting for the multiplicity of comparison with FDR. There were 12 urinary metabolites which showed consistent associations between Cd exposure from Q2 to Q4. Among plasma metabolites, six cations and one anion were positively associated with U-Cd, whereas alanine, creatinine, and isoleucine were negatively associated with U-Cd. Our results were robust by statistical adjustment of various confounders. Pathway-network analysis revealed metabolites and upstream regulator changes associated with mitochondria (ACACB, UCP2, and metabolites related to the TCA cycle). Conclusion: These results suggested that U-Cd was associated with metabolites related to upstream mitochondrial dysfunction in a dose-dependent manner. Our data will help develop environmental Cd exposure profiles for human populations.

Aim: Oral anticoagulants (OACs) reduce the risk of ischemic stroke but may increase the risk of major bleeding in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). Various risk scores, such as HAS-BLED, ATRIA, ORBIT, and DOAC, have been proposed to assess the risk of major bleeding in patients with NVAF receiving OACs. However, limited data are available regarding bleeding risk stratification in Japanese patients with NVAF. Methods: Of the 16,098 NVAF patients from the J-RISK AF study, the combined data of the five major AF registries in Japan (J-RHYTHM Registry, Fushimi AF Registry, Shinken Database, Keio interhospital Cardiovascular Studies, and Hokuriku-Plus AF Registry), we analyzed 11,539 patients receiving OACs (median age, 71 years old; women, 29.6%; median CHA2DS2-VASc score, 3). Results: During the 2-year follow-up period, major bleeding occurred in 274 patients (1.3% per patient-year). In a multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis, an advanced age, hypertension (systolic blood pressure ≥ 150 mmHg), bleeding history, anemia, thrombocytopenia, and concomitant antiplatelet agents were significantly associated with a higher incidence of major bleeding. We developed a novel risk stratification system, HED-[EPA]2-B3 score, which had a better predictive performance for major bleeding (C-statistics 0.67, [95% confidence interval, 0.63-0.70]) than the HAS-BLED (0.64, [0.60-0.67], P for difference 0.02) and ATRIA (0.63, [0.60-0.66], P for difference ＜0.01) scores. Furthermore, it was non-significantly higher than the ORBIT (0.65, [0.62-0.68], P for difference 0.07) and DOAC (0.65, [0.62-0.68], P for difference 0.17) scores. Conclusion: Our novel risk stratification system, the HED-[EPA]2-B3 score, may be useful for identifying Japanese patients receiving OACs at a risk of major bleeding.

BACKGROUND: Whether smoking is associated with worse quality of life (QoL) or not is relatively controversial. The current study is to investigate the relationship between smoking and subjective QoL in a long cohort study. METHODS: The NIPPON DATA 90 project collected 8,383 community residents in 300 randomly selected areas as baseline data in 1990, administered four follow-up QoL surveys, and evaluated mortality statistics. We conducted multinomial logistic regression analysis to compare past smokers and current smokers to never smokers, with impaired QoL and mortality as outcomes. RESULTS: In four follow-ups, QoL data was collected from 2,035, 2,252, 2,522, and 3,280 participants in 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2012, respectively. In the 1995 follow-up, current smoking at baseline was not associated with worse QoL. In 2000 and 2005 follow-ups, smoking was significantly associated with worse QoL (odds ratio [OR] 2.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.33-3.36 and OR 2.29; 95% CI, 1.38-3.80, respectively). In the 2012 follow-up, smoking was not associated with QoL. Sensitivity analysis did not change the result significantly. CONCLUSION: In this study we found that baseline smoking was associated with worse QoL in long-follow-up.

– OBJECTIVE: Previous studies have used selective recall and descriptive dietary record methods, requiring considerable effort for assessing food and water intake. This study created a simplified lifestyle questionnaire to predict habitual water intake (SQW), accurately and quickly assessing the habitual water intake. We also evaluated the validity using descriptive dietary records as a cross-sectional study. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: First, we used crowdsourcing and machine learning to collect data, predict water intake records, and create questionnaires. We collected 305 lifestyle-related questions as predictor variables and selective recall methods for assessing water intake as an outcome variable. Random forests were used for the machine learning models because of their interpretability and accurate estimation. Random forest and single regression correlation analysis were augmented by the synthetic minority oversampling that trained the model. We separated the data by sex and evaluated our model using unseen hold-out testing data, predicting the individual and overall habitual water intake from various sources, including non-alcoholic beverages, alcohol, and food. RESULTS: We found a 0.60 Spearman’s correlation coefficient for total water intake between the predicted and the selective recall method values, reflecting the target value to be achieved. This question set was then used for feasibility tests. The descriptive dietary record method helped to obtain a ground-truth value. We categorized the data by gender, season, and source: non-alcoholic beverages, alcohol, food, and total water intake, and the correlation was confirmed. Consequently, our results showed a Pearson’s correlation coefficient of 0.50 for total water intake between the predicted and the selective recall method values. CONCLUSIONS: We hypothesize that dissemination of SQW can lead to better health management by easily determining the habitual water intake.

Studies examining long-term longitudinal metabolomic data and their reliability in large-scale populations are limited. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the reliability of repeated measurements of plasma metabolites in a prospective cohort setting and to explore intra-individual concentration changes at three time points over a 6-year period. The study participants included 2999 individuals (1317 men and 1682 women) from the Tsuruoka Metabolomics Cohort Study, who participated in all three surveys—at baseline, 3 years, and 6 years. In each survey, 94 plasma metabolites were quantified for each individual and quality control (QC) sample. The coefficients of variation of QC, intraclass correlation coefficients, and change rates of QC were calculated for each metabolite, and their reliability was classified into three categories: excellent, fair to good, and poor. Seventy-six percent (71/94) of metabolites were classified as fair to good or better. Of the 39 metabolites grouped as excellent, 29 (74%) in men and 26 (67%) in women showed significant intra-individual changes over 6 years. Overall, our study demonstrated a high degree of reliability for repeated metabolome measurements. Many highly reliable metabolites showed significant changes over the 6-year period, suggesting that repeated longitudinal metabolome measurements are useful for epidemiological studies.

AIMS: Proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) is a promising new target for reducing low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and cardiovascular events in high-risk patients. However, the influence of circulating PCSK9 concentration on atherosclerotic plaque formation in the general population remains unknown. We assessed the relationship between serum PCSK9 concentration and coronary artery calcium (CAC) prevalence in the general population. METHODS: Community-dwelling Japanese men (n=622) aged 46-82 years without a history of cardiovascular disease and lipid-lowering medications were included. Serum PCSK9 concentration and CAC score were measured using the Agatston method, and the multivariable analysis was used to assess their association. CAC was defined as an Agatston score of ＞10. We conducted further analysis stratified by age (＜60, 60-69, and ≥ 70 years). RESULTS: The average age, LDL-C, and median serum PCSK9 concentration were 68 years, 122 mg/dL, and 240 ng/mL, respectively. After multivariable adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors, no significant association was observed between serum PCSK9 concentration and CAC prevalence (adjusted relative risk [aRR] 1.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.97-1.13). With age stratification, serum PCSK9 concentration was significantly associated with CAC prevalence in men aged ＜60 years (aRR 1.38, 95% CI 1.01-1.88) but not in men aged 60-69 years (aRR 0.96, 95% CI 0.85-1.10) or ≥ 70 years (aRR 1.08, 95% CI 0.99-1.19). CONCLUSIONS: A higher serum PCSK9 concentration was associated with a higher CAC prevalence in men aged ＜60 years, which was independent of traditional cardiovascular risk factors.