Published papers

Difficulty in accessing finance is one of the critical factors constraining the development of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Given their importance for national economies, it is imperative to find ways to provide SMEs with stable finance. One efficient way to promote SME financing is through credit guarantee schemes, by which the government guarantees a portion (ratio) of a loan provided by a bank to a SME. Due to asymmetry of information between banks and SMEs, total loans to SMEs are smaller than the desired level of SME loan demand. Therefore, providing credit guarantees reduces information asymmetry between SME and banks, which increases the amount of loans to SMEs. The ultimate goal of the government is to provide a desired level of loans to SMEs by reducing information asymmetry. This research provides a theoretical model and an empirical analysis of factors that determine an optimal credit guarantee ratio. The ratio should be at such a level that it achieves the government's goal of minimizing banks' nonperforming loans to SMEs, and at the same realize the government policy objective of supporting SMEs by reducing information asymmetry. Our results show that three factors determine the optimal credit guarantee ratio: (i) government policy, (ii) macroeconomic conditions, and (iii) the behavior of banks. To avoid moral hazard and ensure the stability of lending to SMEs, it is crucial for governments to set the optimal credit guarantee ratio based on macroeconomic conditions and vary it for each bank or each group of banks based on their soundness. (C) 2018 Economic Society of Australia, Queensland. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

© 2019 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd. Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio is the highest among OECD countries. While the Domar condition and Bohn's conditions are often used in the literature to check whether a government's debt situation is in a dangerous zone, this paper shows that the Domar condition is obtained only from the supply of government bonds without consideration of the demand side. In addition, Bohn's condition satisfies the stability of the government budget in the long run and even if the condition is satisfied, the recovery of the economy may not be achieved. This paper proposes a new condition considering both the demand and supply of the bond market that satisfies both the stability of the government budget and the recovery of the economy. The empirical findings show that to achieve fiscal sustainability, both sides of the Japanese Government budget (expenditure and revenue) need to be adjusted simultaneously and the decrease in government expenditure has to be more than the increase in tax revenue.

Motivated by the rise of state capitalism, the paper investigates the relationship between ownership identity and the performance of firms in terms of profitability and solvency. Using cross-sectional data covering over 25,000 firms worldwide and by employing various empirical methods, we find robust evidence that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) tend to be less profitable than private-owned enterprises. However, they appear to use debt for their financial need and are, thus, better leveraged. SOEs are also more labor-intensive and have higher labor costs. In addition, an improvement in institutional quality could benefit both SOEs and POEs. Thus, evidence from this study could be interpreted to mean that privatization could improve the performance of public firms; however, this process should come with several prior-privatization approaches. A study over a more extended period is needed before these results can be considered conclusive.

In this study, we assess the impact of quality infrastructure, development, and corruption on damage caused by a natural disaster using panel data from 14 Asia and the Pacific countries for 2007–2017. Employing the generalized method of moments and vector error correction model, this study's main contribution to the literature lies in the quantification of the role of quality infrastructure in disaster impact mitigation. The empirical results prove that even if disaster intensity remains the most important factor in explaining damage, this effect is short-lived. At the same time, quality infrastructure significantly reduces damage in the long-term and is the variable with the largest magnitude. A higher level of development indicators, measured by gross domestic product per capita, and control of corruption, are also shown to reduce damage linked to natural disasters. Our study suggests that improving the quality of infrastructure can be effective in mitigating the impact of disasters. We also propose financial schemes such as public–private cooperation and innovative schemes to promote the construction of quality infrastructure.

Technical developments in the sphere of distributed ledger technologies (DLTs) provide the opportunity to enhance existing tools of social funding. In a first step, we elaborate their application to the community-based hometown investment trust (HIT) fund, which provides financing for small-scale renewable energy projects. In a second step, we model the investment decision problem of households to illustrate through which channel the use of DLTs impacts the household's behaviour. Our model captures the return-risk trade-off between two forms of investments for households with different risk preferences. It reveals that the use of DLTs can mitigate the associated risk of an investment in a HIT fund causing more risk-averse households to change their investment behaviour. Although our theoretical analysis ascertains the potentials of DLTs to enhance social funding schemes, it also works out challenges for the establishment of DLT based funds.

This paper assesses the impact of crude oil price movements on two macro variables, the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate and consumer price index inflation rate, in the developed economies of the United States and Japan, and an emerging economy, the People's Republic of China (PRC). These countries were chosen for this research because they are the world's three largest oil consumers. The main objective of this study is to see whether these economies are still reactive to oil price movements. The results obtained suggest that the impact of oil price fluctuations on developed oil importers' GDP growth is much lower than on the GDP growth of an emerging economy. The main reasons for this lie in fuel substitution (higher use of nuclear energy, gas, and renewables), a declining population (for Japan), the shale gas revolution (for the United States), and strategic oil stocks and government-mandated energy efficiency targets in developed economies. All of these factors make developed economies more resistant to oil shocks. On the other hand, the impact of oil price movements on the PRC's inflation rate was found to be milder than in the two developed countries that were examined. The main cause for this is that the PRC experiences a larger forward shift in its aggregate supply due to higher growth, which allows it to avoid a massive increase in price levels following oil price shocks.

Most rules and regulations for protecting the environment and reducing greenhouse gas emissions target large enterprises. Although small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have major shares in most Asian economies, they remain outside the purview of most environmental rules and regulations. The primary purpose of this study is to assess the association between SMEs’ activities and carbon emissions in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries from 2010 to 2020. To this end, a fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) model was developed. The results show that SMEs’ activities do not align with environmental protection goals and sustainable development, as the estimation results revealed their significant contributions to CO2 emissions. Other practical implications of this study for carbon-neutral SMEs are introducing green finance policies, revisiting the environmental and carbon reduction rules and regulations that cover SMEs, and changing banks’ lending mechanisms based on SMEs’ green economic performance.

The major challenge for filling the financing gaps of green energy is lower rate of return of green projects comparing to fossil fuels. Electricity tariffs are often regulated by governments; It has to be kept in low price to serve for every households as a necessary goods. Sources of revenue from green energy comes only from user charges. Hence it is not so much attractive for private investors. The paper is proposing a model for utilization of the tax revenue spillover of green energy supply by returning the portion of it to green energy projects in order to increase their rate of return. In addition, the paper is proposing a social community based funding scheme for smaller scale green projects (e.g. solar and wind). The paper theoretically and empirically shows that utilizing spillover effect in form of tax return for funding green energy projects will increase the rate of return and make them feasible and interesting for the private investors.

© 2020 Elsevier B.V. This paper examines whether and to what extent development of the local-level financial sector improves SMEs’ performances. While only a handful of studies examines the relationship between local financial development and firm growth, no theoretical basis has been provided in those studies to understand transmission channels and instruments through which local financial development works in favor of firm growth. This paper attempts to fill that gap. In a theoretical framework, this paper shows that an optimal number of bank branches in an area works as an instrument of the transmission channel from financial development to growth, which helps reduce excess liquidity and increase SMEs’ access to bank credit by creating links between the demand and supply of liquidity. Banks default credit risk and cost of branch expansion determine the optimal number of branches in an area: a higher number of branches will reduce asymmetry of information about borrowers and monitoring costs, leading to lower default risks. Using new firm-level survey data of 1084 SME manufacturing firms from Bangladesh, our empirical analysis suggests that there is a threshold level of bank branches that can improve SME performance at the sub-district level. Our findings highlight the importance of potential returns to an optimal branching strategy of banks at the sub-national level that will lead to inclusive finance and growth within a country.

This paper examines the quantile dependence between energy commodities (oil, coal, and natural gas) and the real housing returns of the nine US census divisions for the period 1991-2019. In contrast to the literature on the association between oil and housing markets, we contribute by studying the effect of additional commodities on the housing market returns. We use a cross-quantilogram and quantile regression approach and find regional variation in the impact of energy commodities on housing returns. The effect within the same region varies over the quantile distributions. In general, we observe that all energy commodities are negatively associated with real housing returns. Significant correlations are found more often when the oil and housing returns are in similar quantiles. Coal and natural gas show a stronger relationship with higher quantiles of housing returns. Further, the results for coal and natural gas remains relatively stable after controlling for macroeconomic variables.

Small and Medium-sized enterprises are the backbone of the Asian economy. They make up more than 98% of all Asian businesses that provide two out of three private sector jobs in the continent. Therefore, it is vitally important for the Asian's economic success that has fully functioning support measures for SMEs. However, SMEs face challenges from limited access to finance, lack of a database to low R&D expenditures, undeveloped sales channels, and low level of financial inclusion are some of the reasons behind the slow growth of SMEs. This paper focuses on four major reasons that slowed the SME growth in Asia including (i) Lack of finance (ii) Lack of comprehensive database, (iii) Low level of R&D expenditures and (iv) Insufficient usage of Information technology and provides remedies for mitigating them. It is important for the Asian policymakers to implement these remedies in order to promote the production and employment in the SME sector which is the essential part of the Asian economies and is in the supply chain of large enterprises as well.

This article examines the impact of US monetary policy as the world dominant monetary policy on the global crude oil prices and investigates the impact of oil price fluctuations on two real macro variables (gross domestic product [GDP] and inflation rate) of three global major crude oil consumers: the People's Republic of China (an emerging economy), and Japan and the United States (developed economies). To assess the relationship between monetary variables, crude oil prices and macro variables, the authors adopt an N-variable structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. The results suggest that the monetary policy had a significant positive impact on oil prices during 2001-13 through two different channels (quantitative easing and exchange rate fluctuations). Also, the impact of oil price fluctuations on developed oil importers' GDP growth is much milder than on the GDP growth of an emerging economy. However, the impact on the China's inflation rate is found to be less severe compared to the two developed countries.

Note: Estimates of the loan and deposit HHIs are available at the Financial Services Agency website. https://www.fsa.go.jp/frtc/english/seika/discussion2020.html

This study examines the linkages between energy price and food prices over the period 2000-2016 by using a Panel-VAR model in the case of eight Asian economies. Our results confirm that energy price (oil price) has a significant impact on food prices. According to the results of impulse response functions, agricultural food prices respond positively to any shock from oil prices. Our results show that there is a linkage between energy and food security through price volatility. Since inflation in oil price is harmful for food security, it would be necessary to diversify the energy consumption in this sector, from too much reliance on fossil fuels to an optimal combination of renewable and nonrenewable energy resources that will be in favor of not only the energy security by also the food security. In addition, the paper found that the impact of biofuel prices on food prices is statistically significant but explains less than 2% of the food price variance. However, by increasing the demand for biofuel, there should be more concern about the global increase in agricultural commodities prices and endangering food security, especially in vulnerable economies.

Energy security, a multidimensional concept that encompasses the notion of resource availability, accessibility, environmental acceptability and cost affordability, has been widely discussed. However, the same cannot be said about energy insecurity, a concept that may not necessarily mirror energy security, but also comprises the various consequences of energy unavailability. Energy insecurity mostly affects the poorest and can lead to deepened inequalities and poor health at the household level. One solution for tackling energy insecurity could be adoption of renewable energy. Power generated from renewable sources could help in mitigating energy price fluctuations and reduce health issues, as well as encourage stable economic growth. This special issue discusses the interaction between the three concepts through careful case studies and panel analysis and proposes various policy implications for energy policymakers. This introductory paper introduces the articles selected for this special issue.

Purpose Deposit insurance is a key element in modern banking, as it guarantees the financial safety of deposits at depository financial institutions. It is necessary to have at least a dual fair premium rate system based on creditworthiness of financial institutions, as considering singular premium system for all banks will have moral hazard. This paper aims to develop theoretical and empirical model for calculating dual fair premium rates. Design/methodology/approach The definition of a fair premium rate in this paper is a rate that covers the operational expenditures of the deposit insuring organization, provides it with sufficient funds to enable it to pay a certain percentage share of deposit amounts to depositors in case of bank default and provides it with sufficient funds as precautionary reserves. To identify and classify healthier and more stable banks, the authors use credit rating methods that use two major dimensional reduction techniques. For forecasting nonperforming loans (NPLs), the authors develop a model that can capture both macro shocks and idiosyncratic shocks to financial institutions in a vector error correction model. Findings The response of NPLs/loans to macro shocks and idiosyncratic innovations shows that using a model with macro variables only is insufficient, as it is possible that under favorable economic conditions, some banks show negative performance due to bank level reasons such as mismanagement or vice versa. The final results show that deposit insurance premium rate needs to be vary based on banks' creditworthiness. Originality/value The results provide interesting insight for financial authorities to set fair deposit insurance premium rate. A high premium rate reduces the capital adequacy of individual financial institutions, which endangers the stability of the financial system; a low premium rate will reduce the security of the financial system.

This study examines how the greenness of the firm affects the short- and long-term performance of IPOs. To measure the greenness of the firm, we develop the Greenness Index based on the emissions produced. We find that the greenness of the firms operating in services and financial sectors is higher than in other sectors. To examine the short- and long-run performance of IPOs, we classify our sample into high and low green firms. In the short-run, high green firms obtain a lower return than low green firms. However, high green firms perform better than low green firms in the long-run. This study also determines the factors that cause short- and long-run performance, and the results suggest that the firm's greenness negatively influences initial returns and underperformance of IPOs. Finally, we develop a theoretical model in terms of the portfolio's allocation and assert that investors participate in high-green firms to optimize their portfolio.

© 2019, City University of Hong Kong. All rights reserved. International remittances represent the second-most-important source of external funding for developing countries after foreign direct investment (FDI). This paper examines the impact of international remittances on poverty reduction using the panel data of 10 Asian developing countries. In terms of the dependent variables, this paper sets 3 poverty indicators: the poverty headcount ratio, poverty gap ratio, and poverty severity ratio. The results show that international remittances have a statistically significant impact on the reduction of the poverty gap ratio and poverty severity ratio using the random-effect model of ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates. A 1% increase in international remittances as a percentage of the GDP can lead to a 22.6% decline in the poverty gap ratio and a 16.0% decline in the poverty severity ratio in the sample of 10 Asian developing countries from 1981 to 2014. In addition, the results indicate that a per capita GDP increase and trade openness can decrease the poverty measures and that higher inflation rates may be one of the causes of poverty.

This article examines the current portfolio allocation in ESG and Green projects. Traditional investments focus on rates of return and risks associated with investment. Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) or Green factors are additional components that investors have to pay attention to. Environmental protection is very important. However, we see that the current different definitions of ESG or Green factors lead to distorted allocations in portfolio investments. In order to bring portfolio allocations to a desirable direction, global taxation on pollution or creation of an accurate Green credit rating based on emissions of various pollutants are recommended.

This study estimates the utility function, including the rate of return, riskiness, greenness, and mood across selected countries. We incorporate mood as investors’ sensitivity or momentum towards environmental issues. This study assumes that higher sensitivity of environmental issues compels the firms to follow green measures. We report that the proportion of investment is higher if the firms account for greenness measures. This study compares the results of five Asian economies and reports that Japanese and South Korean firms are following the greenness measures. However, the firms locating in developing countries are far behind in implementing greenness measures. Our regression results also suggest that greenness and mood x greenness positively influence stock returns.