Published papers

We examine whether the news shocks, as explored in Beaudry and Portier (2004), can be a major source of aggregate fluctuations. For this purpose, we extend a standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (2005) and Smets and Wouters (2003, 2007) by allowing news shocks on the total factor productivity (TFP), and estimate the model using Bayesian methods. Estimation results on the U.S. and Japanese economies suggest that (i) news shocks play a relatively more important role in the United States than in Japan, (ii) a news shock with a longer forecast horizon has larger effects on nominal variables, and (iii) the overall effect of the TFP on hours worked becomes ambiguous in the presence of news shocks.

Recent empirical findings conclude that the terms of trade improve even after the positive productivity shock hits the economy among advanced economies. Corsetti, Martin, and Pesenti (2007), henceforth CMPs analytically show that a static two-country model with endogenous firm entry can generate improvement of the terms of trade in response to a positive technology shock in the form of lowering the entry cost. This paper evaluates the robustness of the results in CMP in a model with richer and more realistic dynamics such as nominal price and wage stickiness as in the Global Economy Model. It shows how the economic variables respond to the shocks that shift the production frontier outward, namely, productivity gains in manufacturing and efficiency gains in creating new firms. The main conclusions are that short-run responses could be different from those in CMP because of the existence of real as well as nominal rigidities, and that the persistence of shocks also alters the direction of responses via the wealth effect. These results suggest that it is of great importance for policy institutions to acknowledge the dynamic aspects of productivity spillovers by simulating a model with richer dynamics. [JEL E32, F12, J41] IMF Staff Papers (2009) 56, 958-969. doi: 10.1057/imfsp.2009.30

The non-negativity constraint on nominal interest rates may have been a major factor behind a putative structural break in the effectiveness of monetary policy. To check for the existence of such a break without making prior assumptions about timing, and to enable comparison between pre- and post-break monetary policy, we employ an identified Markov switching VAR framework. Estimation results support the existence of a structural break around the time when the de facto zero nominal interest rate policy was resumed and the effectiveness of monetary policy is seen to weaken since then although slightly positive effects from monetary easing still exist.

Recent economic developments in Japan suggest that there is a growing interest in how monetary policy should be conducted under low inflation and nominal interest rates. In this paper, we first confirm the effectiveness of conventional wisdom against a liquidity trap, namely taking aggressive responses around the zero bound and variant of price level targeting so that it can intensify the policy duration effect, in the large scale dynamic general equilibrium model, the JEM (Japanese Economic Model). We then show that the optimal tangible policy rules around the zero bound are possibly state-contingent at the same time.

© 2018 The Ohio State University Adopting a single instead of multiple targets can be an effective way to overcome the classic time-inconsistency problem. The choice of a single mandate depends on the trade openness and the credibility. Reduced-form empirical results show as central banks become less credible, they are more likely to adopt a pegged exchange rate, and the tendency to peg depends on trade openness. In a model with “loose commitment,” as credibility falls, either an inflation target or a pegged exchange rate is more likely to be adopted. A relatively closed (highly open) economy would adopt an inflation target (exchange rate peg).