Published papers

In this paper, we empirically investigate the relationship between exchange rate volatility and international trade, focusing on East Asia. Our findings are summarized as follows: first, intra-East Asian trade is discouraged by exchange rate volatility more seriously than trade in other regions. Second, one important source of the discouragement is that intermediate goods trade in international production networks, which is quite sensitive to exchange rate volatility compared with other types of trade, occupies a significant fraction of East Asian trade. Third, the negative effect of the volatility is greater than that of tariffs and smaller than that of distance-related costs in East Asia. © 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

This paper proposes the concept of two-dimensional fragmentation and empirically analyzes the international production/distribution networks in East Asia. Two dimensions of fragmentation are in terms of geographical distance and controllability of a firm for fragmented production processes. The increase in service link cost comes from physical separation of production processes and uncontrollability while the reduction of production costs comes along location advantages and the counterparts' ownership advantages. Our empirical investigation using disaggregated international trade data and micro-data of Japanese corporate firms reveals the development of production networks in East Asia with active back-and-forth transactions of parts and components. It also emphasizes their development with sophisticated combination of intra-firm and arm's length transactions along flexible de-internalization decision-making for outsourcing and with more developed industrial clusters. The paper suggests that policy environment in East Asia has an important role in reducing the service link cost due to uncontrollability as well as physical distance. © 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

This paper applies an economic approach to empirically investigate differences in inward foreign direct investment (FDI) patterns between East Asia and Latin America and discusses the implication of regional trade arrangements. International production/distribution networks in East Asia effectively utilize the new economic logic of fragmentation, agglomeration, and optimal internalization and seem to greatly contribute to economic development. The paper examines statistical data for international trade as well as the activities of Japanese and U.S. multinational enterprises (MNEs) and argues that international production/distribution networks, particularly in machinery industries, are extensively developed in East Asia while remaining immature in Latin America. The impact of regional trade arrangements is substantially different depending on whether international production/distribution networks have already been developed or not. Our findings suggest that the impact of FTAA on FDI in Latin America by East Asian MNEs could be either positive or negative, depending on the content of FTAA and accompanying policies. If differentials between intra-regional tariffs and MFN-based tariffs are kept large, import-substituting FDI from East Asia may stagnate or even decrease. With a proper policy package to nurture international production/distribution networks, on the other hand, FDI from East Asia could be accelerated and contributed to deeper integration of Latin America.

This study examines the industrialization performance of Indonesia through a comparative evaluation with other East Asian economies. While neighboring countries actively formulated international production/distribution networks, Indonesia fell behind in utilizing the benefits of globalizing corporate activities. International production/distribution networks are supported by new economic thought such as fragmentation, agglomeration, and theories about corporate firm; and a policy package of development strategies should be designed to utilize such opportunities. The design of Indonesia's development strategies and "institutions," however, does not conform to the globalizing world because the presence of network-forming foreign companies is not large enough to make them influential "actors." This author argues that the traditional comparative advantage argument for Indonesia's economic development is possibly misleading. Rather, Indonesia must learn the experience of its neighboring countries and introduce foreign companies as new actors to break the old "structure".

This paper conducts a Cox-type survival analysis of Japanese corporate firms using census-coverage data collected by METI. A study of exiting firms confirmed several characteristics of Japanese firms in the 1990s. First, excessive internalization in the corporate structure and activities is harmful to corporate survival. Having too many establishments and affiliates weakens corporate performance. Efficient concentration on core competences increases the probability of survival. Second, global commitment helps Japanese firms be more competitive and more likely to survive. However, the channels of a firm's global commitment must be carefully selected. Small firms can benefit from exporting activities, though having foreign affiliates or conducting foreign outsourcing might aggravate their performance. Large firms, on the other hand, can conduct foreign direct investment and foreign outsourcing to possibly enhance the probability of their survival. Third, while corporate performance affects the choice of exits for affiliate firms, it does not affect the survival/exit of independent firms; suggesting the possible malfunctioning of the market mechanisms in the exits of independent firms. Fourth, we do not find any statistically significant evidence that firms with foreign shareholders are more likely to exit; there is little evidence of foot-loose behavior among foreign companies. © 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

This paper analyzes micro data of Japanese multinational enterprises (MNEs) to investigate differences between Latin America and East Asia from various viewpoints of their corporate activities. One of the crucial factors to make a sharp contrast is the development of international production/distribution networks utilizing the benefit of fragmentation and agglomeration. Japanese firms have played an important role in developing international production/distribution networks in East Asia while they have not yet either constructed a critical mass of industrial clusters or formulated efficient vertical chains of production in Latin America, where proper international commercial policies are the key for success. © 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the choices made by Japanese firms with respect to subcontracting status, that is, whether to take in work as subcontractor, to outsource work to subcontractors, to do both or to do neither. It shows that the probability of working as a subcontractor, a choice made by many small firms in Japan, is negatively related to size, foreign sales and technological capability. Furthermore, profits do not appear to be higher for subcontracting firms; indeed, they are highest for the group that does not get involved in any type of subcontracting, whether as a supplier or as an outsourcer.