May 16, 2022
Keio University School of Medicine
A research team led by Cyrus Ghaznavi, a researcher, and Shuhei Nomura, a project associate professor, at the Department of Health Policy and Management, Keio University School of Medicine, analyzed trends in the number of marriages, divorces, and births before and during the COVID-19 pandemic (from January 2017 to May 2021) using vital statistics for Japan as a whole and by region.
Based on five years of past data, the team predicted the number of marriages, divorces, and births that would have occurred if the pandemic had not happened. A comparison with the actual reported numbers revealed a decrease in marriages and divorces during the first state of emergency (April–May 2020).
Additionally, a decrease in the number of births was observed from December 2020 to February 2021. This period corresponds to 8–10 months after the first state of emergency, suggesting that many couples may have postponed pregnancy during that time. On the other hand, no increase was observed in the numbers of marriages, divorces, or births during the pandemic.
These findings suggest that the future or vague anxieties and financial concerns caused by the COVID-19 pandemic may have led people to postpone or cancel marriages and divorces, and that couples may have changed their intentions regarding pregnancy in the face of the pandemic.
The results of this research were published in the international academic journal "BMJ Global Health" on May 15, 2022 (UK time).
Please see below for the full press release.