KGRI Working Papers 2024

The Extending Healthy Life Expectancy Project of the Keio University Global Research Institute (KGRI) 2040 Independence and Self-Respect Project aims to design and propose a social system that connects multiple health services, which utilize various research seeds, in an interoperable manner in order to realize a sound extension of healthy life expectancy in the super-aged society of 2040. This working paper, as part of the activities of the Extending Healthy Life Expectancy Project, describes the examination of new health services and social systems for achieving the extension of healthy life expectancy in 2040. From predictions based on the current situation and future challenges regarding health in Japan, we focus on behavioral change for health maintenance and promotion as a key area, and propose new health services and a system for implementing these services to contribute to solving health-related issues.

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While enjoying the benefits of information and communication technology, we must avoid the harms of information maldistribution and realize a healthy speech environment that is in harmony with the fundamental principles of the constitution. To this end, what is now required of us is to achieve a state in which each individual's desired "health" is fulfilled within the information environment that forms the foundation of a democratic society—in other words, to realize "informational health."

This joint declaration proposes actions that various actors—including users, businesses, and the government—should undertake so that all who desire "informational health" in the public sphere can enjoy it.

*This joint proposal (ver. 2.1) is an updated version of the joint proposal (ver. 2.0) announced in May 2023, supplemented with the outcomes of the symposium "The Gloom of the Attention Economy and 'Informational Health'—Creating a Healthy Public Sphere through Interdisciplinary Knowledge," held in March 2024.

Digital technologies during the COVID-19 pandemic failed to meet high expectations. This provides a deeper understanding of how digital technologies might be used in the future. Japan’s response was particularly interesting, differing from South Korea and China in both metric performance and technology.

Due to a poor performance in the first year, it was proposed in February 2021 that Japan should follow the example of other Asia-Pacific countries and pursue a zero-COVID strategy. At the time, the superiority of an elimination strategy was justified by its epidemiological effectiveness and rationality.

That these arguments, while persuasive, ultimately did not prevail can be explained by the influence of illegitimate sociophysics from the perspective of Shoshana Zuboff’s surveillance capitalism. In contrast, droplet and aerosol simulations using Japan’s supercomputer Fugaku supported measures not aimed at elimination. Jiro Kokuryo’s theory of cyber civilization is useful for understanding the connection between these measures and trust, and considering the importance of voluntary self-restraint will contribute to the further development of the theory.

This paper proposes the NCPMI conditions—no veto, commitment to a peaceful resolution, political pain, a mutually hurting stalemate, and initiative—as indispensable for resolving conflicts through diplomacy and coercive measures. It explains how these conditions were met, using the coercive diplomacy in Haiti in 1994 and the Carter Agreement as a case study. The paper focuses on the absence of a veto in the Security Council (i.e., consensus) and the role of the effective use of coercive force by the United States, examining the process that led to the restoration of President Aristide. The analysis is also intended to provide a framework that policymakers can use to develop strategies for conflict resolution.

Japan relies on imports for most of its oil needs, with about 90 percent of that coming from the Middle East. Meanwhile, the political and security landscape in the Middle East is undergoing significant changes, partly due to reduced US involvement. From the perspectives of energy security and maintaining international order, Japan’s diplomacy toward the Middle East is also being forced to transform.

Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe actively engaged with the Middle East not only because the region’s stability is crucial for Japan’s energy security but also because terrorism and armed conflicts were on the rise amid the region’s destabilization. Furthermore, the Abe administration, under the banner of “Proactive Contribution to Peace,” emphasized engagement in stabilizing the Middle East from the standpoint of contributing to the stability of the international order. In this regard, the “Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP)” vision/strategy can serve as a cornerstone of Japan’s Middle East diplomacy, both as a geo-strategy and a multilateral cooperation mechanism. However, there is no consensus among the Quad countries (Japan, the US, Australia, and India), which lead the FOIP vision/strategy, as to whether the Indo-Pacific region includes the Middle East and Africa.

The current situation, where the Middle East is undergoing major shifts and the political and military presence of Russia and China is expanding as US involvement decreases, has a significant impact on Japan’s economic activities and security. Japan needs to deepen, expand, and diversify its relations with the Middle East not only for energy security but also from the perspectives of securing sea lanes, maintaining a liberal international order, and its geo-strategy in the Indo-Pacific.