Center Director: Yoshiaki Kobayashi (Professor, Faculty of Law)
Campus: Mita
Center Overview
The purpose of this center is to build a social science data archive, an urgent task for empirical analysis in the social sciences, and to make it widely available to researchers in Japan and abroad, thereby contributing to the field.
Specifically, we will supplement the vast amount of data accumulated by the principal and co-investigators—including National Census data by municipality mesh, election results by municipality, election pledges, laws and judicial precedents, minutes of the National Diet and all prefectural assemblies, and numerous opinion surveys conducted over many years. We will then build a comprehensive data management system for this data and enable multilingual search in seven languages (Japanese, English, Chinese, Korean, Russian, Indonesian, and Malay) to make it accessible to international students and researchers from abroad. Through this research, we aim to create the largest database on Japanese politics, to be widely used not only by political scientists in Japan and overseas but also by researchers in fields such as law, economics, and sociology, thereby serving to develop the infrastructure for Japanese studies. Furthermore, by consolidating diverse data into a single data archive, we aim to acquire new knowledge through data fusion. There is a contemporary demand for the construction of social science data archives. While empirical analysis of social phenomena has become widespread, further development requires the creation of a data archive that makes the necessary data available to everyone. The reasons for this are as follows:
(1) When submitting to top-tier international journals, data disclosure that allows for the replication of the paper is often a condition.
(2) Data is often lost at the end of research periods or upon retirement, leading to inefficient use of research funds.
(3) Valuable data, such as municipal administrative documents from before municipal mergers and judicial precedents after a certain period, is being lost.
(4) Amid the rapid internationalization of academia and the push for data archiving, the difficulty of accessing data related to Japan has become a contributing factor to the decline of Japanese studies overseas. In the natural sciences, projects such as data sharing by academic societies and the bioresource backup project by the National Institute for Basic Biology have been successful. In the humanities, the project to build an international collaborative research network for historical Japanese texts by the National Institute of Japanese Literature is progressing. In contrast, the social sciences, lacking an Inter-University Research Institute Corporation, have only managed to partially collect opinion survey data, and a comprehensive data archive including aggregate data has not been built. To solve these problems, the research purpose of this center is to build a data archive that collects data on national censuses, election results, minutes of the National Diet and local assemblies, opinion surveys, and laws/judicial precedents, focusing on Japan but also including other countries. This data will be managed using XML databases and other tools, with a multilingual search function (Japanese, English, Chinese, Korean, Indonesian, Malay, and Russian), making it accessible to everyone.
(5) In collaboration with the Subcommittee on Political Process, Committee on Political Science, Science Council of Japan, Cabinet Office, and the MEXT Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A) "Construction and Expansion of a Political Data Archive," we held a symposium on the construction and expansion of social science data archives (held on February 23, 2018) and presented our research findings both domestically and internationally.
Keywords and Main Research Themes
Data archive, democracy, multilingual search
FY2018 Business Plan
■ Regarding activities continuing from the previous fiscal year: background, rationale, and goals for continuation
Install the election results by municipality and candidate for the 48th House of Representatives general election of 2017.
Install the JES VI Wave 1 survey data, conducted in conjunction with the 48th House of Representatives general election in FY2017.
Conduct the JES VI Wave 2 survey, targeting voters nationwide in FY2018.
Continuing from FY2017, co-host a symposium on the construction and expansion of social science data archives with the Subcommittee on Political Process, Committee on Political Science, Science Council of Japan, Cabinet Office, and the MEXT Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A) "Construction and Expansion of a Political Data Archive" (scheduled for February 2019), and present research findings in Japan and abroad.
■ New activity goals and content for FY2018, and background for implementation
To explore survey methods that can replace face-to-face interview surveys, which lack responsiveness, we will compare three types of survey methods—face-to-face, mail, and internet—to determine whether internet or mail surveys have a smaller bias compared to face-to-face surveys, and whether this bias is statistically significant. If internet surveys have a smaller bias than mail surveys compared to face-to-face surveys, and this bias is not statistically significant, the superiority of internet surveys as an alternative to face-to-face surveys will be established. We will then experiment to see to what extent the bias between internet and face-to-face surveys can be minimized by correcting for the skew in the attributes of the collected sample. Specifically, the center will conduct an internet survey with questions similar to the face-to-face survey to be conducted in FY2018. Based on a comparison of the two:
If the difference from the face-to-face survey is due to sample bias, we will control the collected sample using a triple quota based on social attributes (gender, age, urban scale of residential area) to bring the distribution of social attributes as close as possible to that of the face-to-face survey's collected sample. Also,
If the difference from the face-to-face survey is due to self-selection bias, we will use a multi-stage sampling method. Then, for each segment combining urban scale, gender, and age, we will estimate the bias in political attitudes (such as voting participation, party support, and political satisfaction) between the face-to-face and internet surveys, and between the face-to-face and mail surveys. If the resulting bias between the two is within a statistically acceptable range, the internet survey will be established as an alternative survey method to the face-to-face survey. An important objective of this research is to determine the optimal sampling method for this purpose. Note that,
in case 1, the advantages of the internet survey will be fully preserved, and even in case 2, advantages such as implementation costs and duration (excluding sampling costs) will be preserved.
FY2018 Business Report
■ Implementation details for the fiscal year's business plan, and research outcomes and degree of achievement
In FY2018, the plan was to:
Install the election results by municipality and candidate for the 48th House of Representatives general election of 2017.
Conduct the JES VI Wave 2 survey, targeting voters nationwide in FY2018.
Co-host a symposium on the construction and expansion of social science data archives with the Subcommittee on Political Process, Committee on Political Science, Science Council of Japan, Cabinet Office, and the MEXT Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A) "Construction and Expansion of a Political Data Archive," and present research findings in Japan and abroad.
Install the JES VI Wave 1 survey data, conducted in conjunction with the 48th House of Representatives general election in FY2017. Of these, items 1 to 3 were completed as planned in FY2018.
Regarding item 4, we received requests from users of the social science data archive to make it accessible to researchers who are unfamiliar with the archive's operation. Therefore, we decided to release the data publicly on a separate website, bypassing our data archive. Furthermore, using the funds from item 4, we conducted an activity not in the original plan:
In conjunction with the Okinawa gubernatorial election held in September 2018, we conducted an opinion survey of voters residing in the prefecture. Based on the achievement of these business plans, and as an alternative to conventional external indicators of democracy, we found the following:
Regarding the mandate function of democracy, we examined whether "voters decide their voting behavior based on the pledges presented by politicians (issue voting)." In Japan, it was found that party support and cabinet approval ratings have a greater influence than election pledges. In the United States, an increase in defense spending and opposition to abortion increase votes for the Republican Party, while an increase in welfare support and acceptance of abortion increase votes for the Democratic Party. In South Korea, regional factors have a large impact, and when controlling for party support, election pledges have little effect on voting behavior, apart from the North Korea issue. Overall, it cannot be said that "citizens are selecting policy elites based on competing pledges presented by those elites (issue voting)." Next,
Regarding the representative function of democracy, we investigated whether elected politicians conduct their Diet activities (voting in plenary sessions, speaking in plenary sessions and committees) based on their election pledges. In Japan, looking at the distribution of consistency between the 2009 House of Representatives election pledges and Diet voting (2009-2012) on items with for/against positions (overall), we found that many Diet members show very little consistency (where the horizontal axis is consistency and the vertical axis is the number of members). In the United States as well, ruling party members have lower consistency than opposition party members. However, only in the Federal House of Representatives is the consistency of members running for re-election higher than that of other members. In South Korea, the more times a member has been elected, the lower their consistency. Ruling party members have higher consistency than opposition party members. Overall, it cannot be said that "elected policy elites are debating and forming policy in the Diet based on their pledges (consistency between election pledges and Diet activities)." Furthermore,
Regarding the retrospective evaluation function of democracy, we examined whether "voters select whom to vote for by evaluating the policies implemented by the government (retrospective voting)." To do this, we clarified whether the consistency between election pledges and statements or votes on bills in the Diet affects the outcome (win/loss) or vote share in the next election. The results showed that in Japan, no correlation was found either in "the consistency between 2005 House of Representatives election pledges and Diet statements/votes (2005-2009) and the vote share in the 2009 House of Representatives election" or in "the consistency between 2005 House of Representatives election pledges and Diet statements/votes (2005-2009) and the win/loss outcome in the 2009 House of Representatives election." Similarly, no correlation was found in "the consistency between 2009 House of Representatives election pledges and Diet statements/votes (2010-2012) and the vote share in the 2012 House of Representatives election" or in "the consistency between 2009 House of Representatives election pledges and Diet statements/votes (2010-2012) and the win/loss outcome in the 2012 House of Representatives election." The factors influencing the win/loss outcome and vote share in the next election are the candidate's strength, such as their vote share in the previous election and the number of times they have been elected, and their party affiliation. In the United States as well, looking at the relationship between "the consistency of 2004 election pledges with congressional statements/votes (2005-2006) and the vote share/outcome in the next election (2006 House election, 2006/08/10 Senate elections)," a surprisingly weak correlation was observed. On the other hand, the vote share in the previous election and party affiliation do influence the next election. In South Korea, looking at the relationship between "the consistency of 2008 election pledges with congressional statements/votes (2008-2010) and the vote share/outcome in the 2012 National Assembly election," no correlation was found there either. Overall, the consistency between election pledges at the time of election and subsequent statements/votes in the Diet does not affect the results of the next election. Therefore, Japanese Diet members can freely make statements and vote on bills that contradict their election pledges without worrying about the next election. Overall, it became clear that it cannot be said that "citizens are selecting the next policy elites based on their evaluation of the policies formed by the previously selected elites (retrospective voting)."
■ Number of published papers (count and major journal names), number of conference presentations (domestic/international), and achievements in social contributions such as events (date, location)
1. Number of published papers: 21. Major publications:
Yoshiaki Kobayashi, "Development of a Social Science Data Archive," "Trends in Academic Research," pp. 56-72, 2018/07.
Kobayashi, Yoshiaki, & Kamahara, Yuta, "Changing Legislature, Changing Politics: Quotas, Electoral Systems, and Political Representation." In Gill Steel, ed. *Beyond the Gender Gap in Japan*. University of Michigan Press.
Kenneth McElwain, 2018. "Constitutional Revision in the 2017 Election." In Robert J. Pekkanen, Steven R. Reed, Ethan Scheiner, and Daniel Smith, eds. *Japan Decides 2017: The Japanese General Election*. Palgrave Macmillan.
Kamahara, Yuta, et al. 2018. "Studying Malapportionment Using α-Divergence." *Mathematical Social Sciences*, 93: 77-89.
Takeshi Iida, "Media Coverage and the Association between Japanese Perceptions of South Korea and North Korea." *Japanese Political Science Review* 4: pp.1-25, 2018.
Taniguchi, Naoko. "Experimental Methods of Political Science." In Hirokazu Takizawa ed., *Diversity of Experimental Methods in Economics*, Springer, 2019/03/31.
2. Number of conference presentations: 35.
Kobayashi, Yoshiaki, "Malfunctioning Representative Democracy," Amoy University, China, 2018/11/26.
Kobayashi, Yoshiaki, "Changing Legislature, Changing Politics: Quotas, Electoral Systems, and Political Representation," 2018 Asian Electoral Studies Conference, 2018/10/27.
Kobayashi, Yoshiaki, "Quality of Democracy," International Symposium of Electoral Studies, 2018/10/26.
Takeshi Iida, "The Alliance Dilemma in the Public Mind: A Survey Experiment in Japan." World Congress of the International Political Science Association, Austin, Texas, 2018/07/24.
Kenneth McElwain, "National Security and Human Rights: Japan's Constitutional Revision Debate," 2018/05/04, Leiden University, Netherlands.
"Convergence versus Divergence of Mass-Elite Political Cleavages: Conceptual, Methodological, and Theoretical Innovations," 2018/06/07, German Institute of Global and Area Studies, Germany.
Kenneth McElwain, "What Do Japanese Elites vs. Voters Want from Their Constitution?," 2018 International Political Science Association Annual Meeting, 2018/07/22, Brisbane, Australia. Kenneth McElwain, "Generational Differences in Economic Perceptions: Postwar Japan in Historical Context," 2018 European Consortium for Political Research General Conference, 2018/08/2, Hamburg, Germany.
Kenneth McElwain, "Constitutional Origins in Asia: Chronology, Proximity, or History?," 2018 American Political Science Association Annual Meeting, 2018/09/01, Boston, USA. Takeshi Iida. 2019. "Reference to Great Presidents and Support for Populist Claims in the U.S." Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, Brisbane, Australia, 2019/01/18.
Naoko Taniguchi et al., "The Times They are Changing in Japan: Electoral Policies between Change and Stability," the 25th International Political Science Association World Congress, Brisbane, Australia, 2018/07/22.
Kamahara, Yuta. "Who Redistricts Determines How It Redistricts: Estimating the Causal Effect of Independent and Effective Delimitation Authority on Malapportionment." Prepared for the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, 2018/04/05.
Kamahara, Yuta. "A Spatial Analysis of the Environmental Effect of Warfare." Prepared for the 2018 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston, MA.
3. Social contributions, including events: 7.
Takeshi Iida, "U.S. Midterm Election Results and Public Opinion Polls," Japan National Press Club, 2018/11/14.
Takeshi Kono, "Politics and Energy," lecture at the Consumer University Course hosted by the Consumer Science Center, 2019/01/23.
Naoko Taniguchi, "Symposium on the Revitalization of Local Assemblies 2018," panel discussion hosted by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Sheraton Miyako Hotel Tokyo, 2018/11/19.
■ Particular achievements through the center's activities
Previously, our census data included Japan (at the basic municipality and mesh unit levels), South Korea (at the basic municipality level), and Russia (at the basic municipality level). We have now collected and installed census data for China (at the municipality, province, and city levels) and Taiwan (at the basic municipality level). Additionally, for South Korea, we added data from the most recent 2010 and 2015 censuses (both at the basic municipality level). This has enabled quantitative analysis in China and Taiwan studies, which were previously dominated by qualitative analysis, such as historical research. Specifically, we conducted quantitative analysis on the pressing issues of regional economic disparities and the aging society with a declining birthrate in present-day China, using the aforementioned data to formulate proposals for practical solutions to current problems. This has led to the development of research that fuses humanities and sciences by adding quantitative analysis to the traditionally history-focused study of China.
Furthermore, this has attracted many international students from China, including executives of state-owned enterprises, as applicants to the Keio University Graduate School of Law.
The number of prospective students from Taiwan has also increased. We have also received invitations for lectures from institutions such as Xiamen University in China and Seoul National University in South Korea, contributing in various ways to the international PR of Keio University. In addition, many graduate students have used the various data installed this fiscal year and in previous years to obtain doctoral and master's degrees, subsequently securing positions as faculty members and researchers at universities in Japan and overseas, thus contributing to the training of young researchers.
Project Members
Principal Investigator
Yoshiaki Kobayashi
ProfessorFaculty of LawTakeshi Kono
ProfessorFaculty of Law