Futoshi Ishii - Appointed in AY2019

My research themes within demography are the fields of mortality analysis and mathematical demography. After studying mathematics in graduate school, I joined the Ministry of Health and Welfare, where I was involved in tasks such as financial verification, which uses future population projections to show long-term outlooks for public pension benefits and contributions, and the creation of life tables, which mathematically represent Japan's mortality situation. During this time, I was surprised by the significant impact of population on pension finances. My interest in demography grew through experiences such as seeing the life tables I helped create being used as a fundamental concept in the field.

Currently, Japan's life expectancy is among the highest in the world, but immediately after World War II, it was one of the lowest among developed countries. Japan's life expectancy, which has since rapidly increased and continues to extend, is a topic of high international interest. However, many aspects of its underlying factors and future prospects remain unknown. In demography, research is conducted from two perspectives: formal demography (methodology), which focuses on mathematical and statistical analysis of population variables, and substantive demography (population theory), which centers on analysis from external socioeconomic factors. I also conduct analyses from various angles, both formal and substantive. This includes developing models that excel at representing Japan's mortality characteristics, advancing the mathematical demography methodologies necessary for mortality modeling, analyzing age patterns of mortality and cause-of-death structures, and examining socioeconomic factors related to mortality improvement. The fascination of this research lies in discovering the keys to unraveling the mystery of Japan's longevity through the accumulation of such analyses.

I imagine that most students in the Faculty of Economics are unfamiliar with demography. However, quantitatively and accurately understanding population issues—such as Japan's continuing low birthrate and increasing longevity, and their consequences of long-term population decline and rapid aging—is crucial for considering the future of Japanese society and its economy. Demography provides the foundation for this understanding. Demography is a discipline that requires diligent work, as it involves quantitative analysis with an emphasis on the quality of statistical data and the quantitative evaluation of indicators. Nevertheless, I hope you will take an interest in demography, as it will enable you to engage in well-grounded discussions about population issues.

(Interview conducted in December 2019)