Daisuke Sugiyama: The Magic of Numbers

2024/01/26

In Ragnarok, the day of the end of the world in Norse mythology, the thunder god Thor deals a fatal blow to the giant serpent Jormungand, who seeks to swallow the world, but is said to have died himself after taking 9 steps due to the venom spat by the serpent. In the depiction of this scene, it is important that a specific number, "9 steps," is recorded rather than just "a few steps." In Norse mythology, the world is said to be divided into nine realms, and the fact that Thor could not exceed "9 steps" implies that he shares his fate with the perishing world. Although the world is reborn after Ragnarok, Thor, who could not escape the "magic of numbers," was unable to survive the disaster and see the new world.

On the other hand, in modern society, various numbers are flying around, including in the field of preventive medical sciences in which I am involved. For example, even if we say, "Let's cut back on alcohol for the sake of health," it is too vague, and it is not clear how much one should cut back. This is where specific numbers come into play.

In the draft of the guidelines for health-conscious drinking (the so-called drinking guidelines) published by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare in September 2023, it was clearly stated: "As numerical values to serve as a reference for alcohol consumption (pure alcohol amount), the second phase plan and Health Japan 21 (the third term), scheduled to start from fiscal 2024, indicate 'an intake of 40g or more of pure alcohol per day for men and 20g or more for women' as 'the amount of alcohol consumption that increases the risk of lifestyle-related diseases.' Aiming for an alcohol intake lower than this is thought to lead to a reduction in the risk of lifestyle-related diseases."

However, the matter is not settled just because such easy-to-understand numerical indicators have been presented. During the careful consideration of the draft guidelines, voices were raised asking, "Won't this give the misunderstanding that it is perfectly fine for men to drink up to 40g and women up to 20g...?" There was a concern that the numbers "40g for men and 20g for women" might take on a life of their own. In the final draft presented in November, while the description of "40g for men and 20g for women" remained, it seems to have settled into a form that encourages caution by clearly stating the amount of alcohol that poses a risk for each disease.

As someone who "deals with numbers" on a daily basis, I felt once again that I must get along well with numbers while avoiding being drawn into the "magic of numbers."