Junsuke Matsuura: Japanese Politics and "Sontaku"

2023/01/13

In recent years, the term "sontaku" (anticipatory compliance) has been frequently used in reports and commentaries on Japanese politics. In the Moritomo and Kake Gakuen scandals, which became major issues under the long-running Abe administration, bureaucrats' "sontaku" toward Prime Minister Abe and others was repeatedly pointed out, and "sontaku" was even selected for the 2017 Buzzword Award.

On the other hand, in the field of political science, "sontaku" has long been discussed as an "anticipated reaction" and is considered one of the most important concepts in elucidating the power dynamics that political science emphasizes. Normally, regarding the power relationship between A and B, attention is focused on A directly exercising power over B to change B's behavior. However, B's act of sensing A's intentions and acting accordingly is also a significant exercise of influence over B. While the former is referred to as A's explicit influence over B, the latter is called implicit influence.

Regarding the Japanese Diet, which has been the subject of my analysis, there has been a tendency to focus on how much the Diet hinders the passage of cabinet-submitted bills (government bills)—planned and drafted by bureaucrats from various ministries—through amendments or rejections. The extent of this has directly linked to the evaluation of the Diet. However, to comprehensively understand the Diet's influence, it is essential to examine how bureaucrats prepare government bills by anticipating the policy preferences of the Diet (especially the majority in both houses).

However, just as it was difficult for others to prove what kind of "sontaku" bureaucrats engaged in during the Moritomo and Kake scandals, observing implicit influence based on "sontaku" is considered a methodologically difficult challenge. Furthermore, even if someone's "sontaku" could be proven, actual political phenomena are not the result of unilateral "sontaku" by a single actor, but rather the outcome of "sontaku" by various actors and the resulting interactions. Certainly, as the chief executive overseeing the executive branch, the Japanese Prime Minister is a target of "sontaku" by bureaucrats and others; however, the Prime Minister also manages the administration while anticipating the intentions of ruling and opposition parties, bureaucrats, the media, and voters.

Thus, while understanding complex political phenomena based on the "sontaku" of various actors involves various difficulties, it is also the true appeal of empirical political science research and provides important clues for considering the nature of human society.