[Special Feature: Re-examining "Exclusionism"] Toshihiro Menju: Population Decline and the Acceptance of Foreigners—Challenges and Prospects for Coexistence Policies

Japan is currently reaching a historical turning point characterized by rapid population decline and an increase in the number of foreign residents.

According to demographic statistics released monthly by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, as of April 1, 2025 (final figures), the annual population decrease of Japanese nationals has already exceeded 940,000 compared to the same month of the previous year. At the current pace, the annual decrease of Japanese nationals is expected to reach 1 million within 2026.

On the other hand, excluding the period of the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of foreigners has continued to increase rapidly at a pace that compensates for about 40% of the decrease in Japanese nationals (Table 1). According to the "2023 Future Population Projections" by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), it was predicted that foreigners would account for 10.8% of the total population in 2070, but the actual pace of increase far exceeds that. As of the end of 2024, the number of foreign residents reached approximately 3.77 million, an increase of about 360,000 in one year. Even if the future annual increase in foreigners is conservatively estimated at 300,000, it is expected to increase by 6 million in 20 years. Combined with the current number of foreign residents, it is highly likely to reach 10 million in the 2040s.

The increase in foreigners is not a result of policy, but is occurring to compensate for the sharply declining Japanese workforce; if this is suppressed, it is expected that Japanese society will fall into dysfunction. Furthermore, this change will not end in the 2040s; according to IPSS estimates, Japan's population decline is expected to continue into the 22nd century.

This major change in population structure will have multi-layered impacts ranging from the institutional design of Japanese society to cultural acceptance, education, welfare, and politics. It becomes inevitable to envision a future for Japan that assumes settled foreigners (immigrants). In this text, "immigrants" refers to foreigners residing in Japan for one year or more, based on the United Nations definition.

Of the more than 3.7 million foreign residents as of the end of 2024, the number of foreign workers reached 2.3 million (as of October 2024). Table 2 shows the ratio of foreign workers in each industry in 2014 and 2024 (how many out of X people are foreigners), and Makoto Kato, who created this table, calls this the "degree of foreign dependency."

As shown in this table, the degree of foreign dependency is rising rapidly in all industries, reflecting the decrease in the Japanese workforce. Since there is no way to stop the decrease in the Japanese workforce, the degree of foreign dependency will inevitably increase in the future. The utilization of women and the elderly has already been ongoing for many years, and there is not much room left. While some hope for the utilization of AI and robots, the reality is that there is also a shortage of human resources in Japan to research, manufacture, and maintain them.

Foreign workers have already become indispensable in many industrial fields, but significant challenges remain regarding employment stability. According to the 2024 Basic Survey on Wage Structure, while the average monthly wage for general workers is 330,400 yen, the average for foreign workers is 242,700 yen, representing a large gap even considering that many foreign workers are in the younger generation. Even in professional and technical fields, it is 292,000 yen, which is below the national average.

Furthermore, the proportion of non-regular employment is high, with dispatched and contracted labor reaching 17.3%, and 51.2% among Japanese-Brazilians. Second-generation Japanese-Brazilians, who hold the "Long-term Resident" status established over 30 years ago, have not been able to escape dispatched and contracted employment, similar to their parents' generation.

These facts suggest that many Japanese companies have traditionally viewed foreign workers as an unavoidable substitute when Japanese workers cannot be hired, and have regarded them as an economic adjustment valve. However, now that population decline is accelerating, it is necessary to change this view 180 degrees. Unless a path is provided for them to move from mid-level to executive positions by providing appropriate Japanese language education and vocational training, the future of companies will be cut off due to human resource shortages.

The fact that Japanese society has viewed foreigners as transient is also clearly reflected in the delay in education for the children of foreigners. According to a survey by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, the dropout rate for high school students requiring Japanese language instruction is eight times the national average, and the non-regular employment rate is 38.6%, more than 12 times the average. The lack of educational support leads to the social exclusion of second-generation immigrants and the reproduction of poverty.

In the case of immigrant nations, it is not uncommon for first-generation immigrants to struggle with language issues and life, but second-generation immigrants often acquire academic abilities equivalent to general citizens of that country and earn equivalent or higher incomes. This is because the receiving society has a system for teaching the language to make immigrants members of society and treats them equally to the country's workers.

Furthermore, immigrants themselves strive to learn the language of their destination and are eager to have their children receive an education. On the other hand, in Japan, the government states that it does not adopt an immigration policy. Within that policy, while foreign workers are actually becoming settled, there is a strong perception of them as migrant workers or temporary residents, and the education of children in Japan remains halfway. In this situation, an increase in settled foreigners will inevitably lead to a division between Japanese and foreigners.

Japan's traditional policy for accepting foreign workers differed greatly between highly skilled professionals and unskilled labor (blue-collar). Highly skilled professionals with a university degree or higher were accepted without numerical limits, while the policy was generally not to accept workers in blue-collar fields. Therefore, in blue-collar fields where labor shortages continue, the Technical Intern Training Program has been continued since 1993 under the name of trainees rather than workers.

However, the Technical Intern Training Program, which does not allow for job transfers even if the employer is an exploitative company, has been criticized multiple times by the U.S. government as a human rights violation, and domestic criticism has also grown. In 2018, the Specified Skilled Worker system was decided upon to accept workers in blue-collar fields. Furthermore, in 2024, the government decided to abolish the Technical Intern Training Program and create a new Training and Employment System.

Under the Training and Employment System, as the name suggests, companies bear the responsibility to train the foreigners they accept. After three years, the company aims for all accepted individuals to grow to a level where they pass the exams for both Japanese language proficiency and job skills for Specified Skilled Worker (i). The Training and Employment System is scheduled to start in 2027.

On the other hand, in parallel with the policy changes from Technical Intern Training to Specified Skilled Worker and Training and Employment, the government has formulated and revised the "Comprehensive Measures for Acceptance and Coexistence of Foreign Human Resources" and the "Roadmap for the Realization of a Society of Harmonious Coexistence with Foreign Nationals." These policies promote coexistence with foreigners.

The "Comprehensive Measures" were decided at a meeting of relevant ministers in December 2018, at the same time as the creation of the Specified Skilled Worker system, and are revised every year. Under "Support according to life stages and life cycles," comprehensive support for foreigners from infancy to old age is advocated, and "Development of the foundation for a coexistence society" includes measures to encourage a change in the awareness of Japanese people through awareness months and events.

Furthermore, in June 2022, the "Roadmap for the Realization of a Society of Harmonious Coexistence with Foreign Nationals" was formulated as a guideline for the "Comprehensive Measures," showing the vision for a coexistence society, medium- to long-term challenges, and specific measures. This roadmap is also revised every year.

These two correspond to "integration policies," which are the pillars of immigration policy internationally. It is clear that the government positions foreigners as settled residents, and it can be considered that Japan has substantially embarked on an immigration policy. However, fearing a backlash due to the negative image of "immigrants," the government has not stated this explicitly. The author calls this situation the "Immigrant Dilemma."

While the government falls into the immigrant dilemma and continues to take an ambiguous stance toward immigration policy, the Sanseito party's claim of "Japanese First" sharply pointed out that contradiction. In the 2025 House of Councillors election, Sanseito made a dramatic leap forward, gaining 14 new seats from just one. The driving force behind this leap was the slogan "Japanese First," which the party put at the forefront of its election campaign.

The author exchanged opinions with Hiroshi Ando, Secretary-General of Sanseito, at a roundtable discussion held as a project for the October 2025 issue of the monthly magazine "Bungeishunju." What I recognized again there was that the rise of Sanseito is backed by the long-term economic stagnation of the "Lost 30 Years," and underlying social phenomena such as wage stagnation for the younger generation, declining marriage rates, and a declining birthrate. These factors created distrust in existing political parties, especially among young people, and became the soil for Sanseito to gather support as a new political option.

In addition, various issues regarding foreigners became factors for "Japanese First" to gain support. The buying up of land by Chinese people, bad manners and nuisance behavior by inbound tourists, and the current situation where the government has not fulfilled sufficient accountability for the rapidly increasing number of foreign residents amplified public anxiety.

The government has expressed its position that it "will not take an immigration policy," but in reality, the number of foreign residents is increasing in various regions. Companies proceed with the acceptance of foreign workers without providing sufficient explanations to local residents, and as a result, the increase in foreigners who are not proficient in Japanese has led to rising anxiety among local residents. Companies profit from inbound demand and the utilization of foreign workers, but it is difficult to say that the benefits are directly returned to local residents. It can be said that it is a natural consequence that the phrase "Japanese First" resonated with the hearts of general citizens in a situation where foreigners are increasing without sufficient explanation.

On the other hand, when JICA announced the Africa Hometown Initiative, persistent opposition activities were carried out even after JICA apologized for the initial lack of explanation. While these may be considered activities with political intent, such movements lead to the suppression of objective discussion about immigrants and are a worrisome problem.

"Japanese First" implicitly suggests placing non-Japanese entities in a "second" or lower position, which contradicts the ideal of including foreigners in society. Since foreigners are an indispensable presence for Japanese society, a stance of including them as equal members who constitute society together is required rather than separating them. If foreigners are treated as second-class citizens, divisions will eventually arise in society, carrying the risk of becoming a hotbed for crime and hate speech.

On the other hand, "multicultural coexistence," which is a grassroots activity to support foreigners that has been carried out in regions, is at the opposite pole of "Japanese First." "Japanese First" is a claim that Japanese people should be prioritized, based on the perception that foreigners are treated better than Japanese people. On the other hand, "multicultural coexistence" appeals for the necessity of treating foreigners the same as Japanese and including them in society, based on the current situation where foreigners face various difficulties and discrimination in Japanese society.

The background to this difference lies in the difference in the image of foreigners. The image of foreigners assumed by those who support "Japanese First" is that of wealthy individuals who buy up land and luxury apartments and resell them for profit. On the other hand, the image of foreigners assumed by those who promote "multicultural coexistence" is that of foreign families working for low wages and struggling in their daily lives. The images of foreigners depicted by both are completely different, and a gap in perception arises there.

So, what is the actual situation? Certainly, there are examples of some foreigners earning high incomes and living luxurious lives. However, as seen earlier, the average wage of foreigners is extremely low, and there are many cases where the living situation is not stable. Furthermore, the education of their children is in an extremely serious situation. It can hardly be said that the vast majority of the more than 3.7 million foreign residents living in Japan are treated better than Japanese people.

While the "Japanese First" phenomenon is spreading, in reality, friction with foreigners in Japan is extremely small compared to Europe and the United States. Serious social problems such as an increase in crimes by foreigners or hate activities are hardly seen, and society is stable. Although anti-Chinese sentiment remains rooted in some parts, it is difficult to say that exclusionism toward foreigners is deeply rooted in society as a whole, and it may end as a transient phenomenon.

In municipalities facing population decline, there have been an increasing number of cases in recent years of actively working to accept foreigners. There are movements toward the active acceptance of foreigners, such as Gunma Prefecture formulating the Ordinance for the Promotion of Multicultural Coexistence and Co-creation, Kochi Prefecture implementing the Second Kochi Prefecture Foreign Human Resources Acceptance and Active Participation Promotion Plan ver. 2, and Ibaraki Prefecture announcing a Foreigner Happiness Index.

Despite such movements by municipalities, if the government continues to take an ambiguous stance toward immigration policy, movements that incite anti-immigrant sentiment may gain even more momentum in the future. The current situation where the word "immigrant" itself is treated as a political taboo and discussion is suppressed is a major obstacle to healthy policy formation.

The government first needs to clearly show the overall picture of its policy for accepting foreigners. What kind of human resources will be accepted, what kind of support and institutional development will be provided after acceptance, and how will the future image of Japan living together with immigrants be drawn? It is essential to share these with the public and engage in repeated dialogue. In particular, careful discussion is required on how to achieve coexistence with Japan's identity and culture.

From a global perspective, it can be said that Japan is in a position to easily succeed in immigration policy. This is because in Europe and the United States, unintended inflows of immigrants and refugees are likely to occur due to land borders, and the current anti-immigrant and anti-refugee movements stem from a "border crisis." On the other hand, Japan is an island nation and can thoroughly manage inflows. Furthermore, since labor shortages will be permanent due to population decline, it is difficult to imagine long-term unemployment if appropriate Japanese language education and vocational training are provided. While the typical immigrant criminal in Europe is a young male who is unemployed and impoverished, such a situation can be avoided in Japan as long as population decline continues.

Ultimately, the government should formulate an Immigration Act or a Basic Act on Foreign Residents. In this law, it is necessary to show the government's basic stance toward foreigners, as well as support measures for them, their rights and obligations, and the roles of the government and municipalities. At the Japan Center for International Exchange, where I worked until last year, I twice made proposals for a draft outline of a Basic Act on Foreign Residents to the government and held a symposium inviting the Minister of Justice. No matter what kind of administration comes to power, population decline is unavoidable, and dependency on foreigners will only increase.

In response to exclusionist reactions, policy responses should be based on facts and reason rather than emotional conflict. In order for Japan, which is facing a sharp population decline, to build a sustainable future, it is an urgent task to draw a new social image based on the premise of coexistence with immigrants, and a publicly open discussion is needed now more than ever.