[Special Feature: The Future of the Entertainment Business] Atsuo Nakayama: "Oshi"-Driven Entertainment Business—The "Probability Change" from Consumer to Expresser

2024/04/05

The term "Oshi" (one's favorite/support) gained general recognition after being used in the 2011 AKB48 General Election, and likely began to spread in earnest around the 2018 film "Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer." Since the social phenomenon of female fans visiting the same movie repeatedly as "Amuro Toru's women," we saw news of Arashi's hiatus and the start of tweets marking November 4th as "Good Oshi Day" in 2019. Then, during the COVID-19 pandemic starting in 2020, it became widely welcomed as a movement to drive the economy. With the shutdown of physical spaces like broadcast media and music concerts, talents and characters came to be sustained by the existence of fans. In the emergency of being "unable to deliver," the supply side also began to realize that they could expand their base through regular communication via fan clubs and fans "pushing" (supporting) each other on SNS. The three years of the pandemic were when "Oshikatsu" (Oshi-related activities) became a household term.

The act of being obsessed with a single talent or character (sometimes even directed at things without personality or growth potential, like castles or locations) and following their growth process as an "Oshi" is not actually that new. It has existed since the 1980s, symbolically captured in the form of "Okkake" (chasers) or "Shinveitai" (fan guards) for Takarazuka or Johnny's (now SMILE-UP.). However, compared to that era when discourse often admonished the excessive behavior of hundreds or thousands, the current "Oshi" movement, which mobilizes units of hundreds of thousands or millions, has evolved into a completely different species in terms of scale and user behavior. This is also the difference between the 1980s, when anime was a niche 30-billion-yen market watched by fewer than 1 in 10 people, and the 2020s, where it has become a 3-trillion-yen market watched by 9 out of 10. Compared to 40 years ago, when being a fan was a quiet personal hobby—"Actually, I'm in the fan club..."—it has now become commonplace to be someone's fan, wrapped in the active and social resonance of the word "Oshi."

Nowadays, well over 90% of Gen Z have an Oshi*1, and roughly 50% of all generations are "Oshikatsu users."*2 At this level, it has reached a point where some continue to "proselytize" to a bothersome degree (Oshi-hara/Oshi-harassment), or even camouflage themselves with an Oshi just to join a conversation despite not actually liking them. "Not having an Oshi" is sometimes perceived as being a hobby-less, emotionless person, creating a new social pressure. Alternatively, the word "Oshi" has become inflated, serving as a prop to gloss over various complex relationships and emotions. How should we describe the way someone calls an admired senior an "Oshi" and screams with excitement even in front of their boyfriend? Human sensory spectrums of affection, love, and light interest have diverse variations that aren't clearly black and white. In the sense that people can now skillfully gloss over these and keep relationships in an ambiguous state without making them black and white, it may be playing a role in significantly changing the diversity of human relationships.

While individuals were watching their favorite anime on video, it was likely impossible for society to cast a positive gaze on such "otaku activities." In the 2000s, otaku began going outside for social activities like music concerts and pilgrimages to sacred sites. In the 2010s, this succeeded in establishing a global presence through the export-oriented service development of anime, manga, and games, building a major economic zone. Parallel to this, as it came to be relied upon in the 2020s as fan activity that helps during recessions, both otaku and "Oshi" have become fully recognized by society. Ultimately, the act of supporting a special celebrity or character as an "Oshi" has moved beyond mere personal emotion or hobby. It has gained "pro-sociality" precisely because it is inseparably linked to economic activities like purchasing goods, attending events, and visiting sacred sites, and has been recognized as a sufficiently effective lever for driving the economy.

I have often received inquiries from the media regarding the potential of "Oshi" as a consumption activity due to my writing of "The Oshi Economy." In terms of "otaku consumption," it could be said to be 700-800 billion yen; it could be seen as part of the 2.5 trillion yen "character business market" used for licensed products and CM tie-ups; or it could be called the engine driving the 13 trillion yen "content industry" including video, publishing, and games. These are consumption activities that were performed quite commonly even before the excuse of "Oshi" became widespread. However, the main theme I want to discuss in this essay is whether "talking about 'Oshi' solely as a part of consumption is fundamentally wrong."

The intention behind this is that while "Oshi" certainly involves "consumption" such as event participation and goods purchases, its essence actually lies in a shift in the user's vector from "buying" to "participating." Oshikatsu can actually be done without buying goods or services. Spreading information on SNS or organizing a fan club on Discord to provide information to everyone is also a legitimate form of Oshikatsu. What matters is not consumption, but the excitement surrounding that talent or character and the expansion of the fan economic zone itself. In fact, as long as one has influence and mobilization power, it can function perfectly as "Oshikatsu" without paying a single cent.

Figure 1 is a chart published in "Creator Wonderland" (Nikkei BP, 2024), showing that users no longer fit into the framework of "consumers." For the past 15 years, people have been writing product reviews on Amazon, providing information to thousands of friends on mixi and Facebook, and sharing everything from product explanations to idle talk and karaoke on Nico Nico Douga and YouTube. Activities that "cannot be called economic activities but influence people" are becoming increasingly common. On TikTok, they upload "tried dancing" videos to popular songs, and on ROBLOX, they provide spaces for other users to play with games they have created as secondary works. It is as if consumers, while being amateurs, are engaging in semi-creator activities or sometimes organizing them like editors.

"Oshikatsu" is just one part of the boundary-crossing behavior of the "Consumer/Editor." "Builders" move away from consumption and exist between "Creator/Editor," spending 100 hours in Fortnite or ROBLOX to complete a virtual Shibuya and receiving tips from the dozens of users playing there. "Mixers," the group that has increased the most recently, exist between "Creator/Consumer," performing as singers or dancers themselves and gaining tens of thousands of followers that rival professionals. Sometimes, thousands of people are emerging as "video clip creators" who don't show their face or voice, but clip Hiroyuki's broadcast videos and upload them to YouTube, gathering advertising revenue from hundreds of millions of views. Yes, "Oshi" is one phase of the process where consumers cross boundaries and involve themselves in the content of works. Consumers can no longer remain silent. They don't just simply select and follow what is provided. They inform others through horizontal relationships whether something is worth following, sometimes becoming leaders of consumers while proselytizing, or becoming producers who make the creators themselves famous through clips. Oshikatsu is the process by which passive consumers acquire agency.

Come to think of it, the "consumer" itself is a modern invention. The world's first department store, Le Bon Marché in France, opened in 1838. At that time, ordinary people did not purchase luxury goods other than daily necessities. Before then, users of luxury goods like art were mainly aristocrats; peddlers would visit their mansions, providing tailor-made goods and services in closed spaces. However, Le Bon Marché stimulated consumption by lining up products like gloves and scarves in "showcases" and clearly stating prices for "fixed-price sales," allowing anyone to enter and look at the products. The same began in Japan in the 1880s. Until then, it was a credit-based business with no signs or prices displayed, but it gradually changed to a product display system. This led to the emergence of "consumers who window-shop without deciding what to buy."*3 When the Imperial Theatre was built in Hibiya in 1911 and Nihonbashi Mitsukoshi was established in 1914, the whole of Japan enjoyed consumption with the phrase "Mitsukoshi today, Imperial Theatre tomorrow."

More than 100 years have passed since the "consumer" was born and became widespread. What the various phenomena appearing in the social movement of "Oshi" indicate is that the concept of the passive, static consumer itself is becoming obsolete, and we are changing into beings that wander between the more active and dynamic consumer and expresser.

There is a case that serves as a symbolic turning point in terms of who creates "trends." In 2023, YOASOBI's "Idol" became the first J-POP song to reach number one on the "Billboard Global Excl. U.S." ranking. This song was adopted as the opening theme for the anime "Oshi no Ko" and remained the top Japanese song throughout the three months from April to June 2023 when the anime was airing. Consequently, it swept a total of 77 titles, including the "Japan Record Award (Special International Music Award)" and "Spotify's Most Streamed Song in Japan."

But was it the power of the song, the power of the vocals, or the power of the anime "Oshi no Ko" that made this song a "trend"? In fact, while the official video uploaded to Ayase's YouTube channel was played about 100 million times in the three months after its release, during this same period, about 1,000 creators uploaded videos of themselves singing or dancing to "Idol" with their own arrangements on their respective channels, which also totaled about 100 million views [Figure 2]. This means these "sub-creators" averaged 100,000 views each. According to YOASOBI's producers, a major part of the victory was inducing these clips and reorganizations via UGC (User Generated Content)—what I define as the "Remixer" portion. This is because those 1,000 people played the role of "diffusion," attracting layers of people who were not originally fans of YOASOBI itself.

This SNS upload culture, where users who should originally be mere "viewers" behave as if they are "editors" or "creators," was a situation that greatly shook the supplier/consumer opposition that had permeated over 100 years. They aren't being paid to do promotional activities. They simply "tried" (....) singing or dancing to something that "seemed likely" to trend, without any vested interest, just to deliver something interesting to the hundreds or thousands of people close to them. That act became the training wheels for the original to spread, actually creating the trend. I felt that the activities people have been nurturing as "Oshikatsu" over the past five or six years, culminating in the global craze of the song "Idol" in 2023, were a symbolic example of the "consumer probability change."

So, how do consumers transform into Mixers, Builders, and Oshikatsu fans? In fact, as UGC has come to hold the key to trends, people who have been doing business until now are starting to get lost in a labyrinth. The "winning pattern of major companies"—spreading a work by hijacking TV programs, radio shows, and magazines with MVs created by famous directors, actors, and Japan's leading creators—is becoming increasingly less effective. In contrast to the YOASOBI example, there are growing instances where users show no interest at all in movies, music, games, or anime that producers have teamed up to finish with a perfect structure in an attempt to create a hit. As the "laws of hits" are increasingly left in the hands of the users themselves, the creators are conversely groping in the dark, unsure of what to do.

While you can drive "consumption/purchasing," the more you try to drive an "Oshi," the more it slips through your fingers. In the Kohaku Uta Gassen, slots are decided in advance for each talent agency, and companies just fit in the idols or singers they want to promote. Actresses are cast based on the strength of their agency or the whims of decision-makers, regardless of whether they fit the role. These "non-substantial movements" have begun to come to light in the SNS society. The reason acts that hinder the quality of a work are affirmed as a necessary evil is likely because a way of providing that looks down on the user has been rampant, assuming that "quality of the work" is not the winning factor.

It's actually quite simple: the things users "want to support" are those with highly transparent processes where the results of the users' support are correctly reflected. People voted with so many CDs in the AKB48 elections because they knew their single vote clearly reflected the result. Amazon, whose monopoly is now a problem, gained popularity 20 years ago because reviews were not deleted based on the publisher's logic; the voices raised by users themselves, both good and bad, were reflected as they were. The Barnes & Noble book search engine, which was being wiped out by Amazon at the time, was a system where "books from the publisher who paid the highest amount came to the top." Regardless of user preferences or popularity, it was a biased ranking that prioritized only the winners in business practices, putting what they wanted to sell in the foreground rather than what users wanted to know or see.*4

Providing what users want to know and see rather than what you want to sell, and ensuring that the results of user support are properly fed back. Thinking about it this way, what a decent world it has become. The 20th-century system of mass production and mass distribution, which built a large wall between "supplier/consumer," now seems like it was merely a transitional period. Things that can induce the user participation behavior of "Oshi" and are chosen by users will be the ones to play the central role in the next era of entertainment.

*1 https://xtrend.nikkei.com/atcl/contents/casestudy/00012/00838/

*2 https://woman-type.jp/academia/discover-career/data/vol-75/