[Feature: The Presidential Election and the Future of America] Saho Matsumoto: The Victory of the Republican Party as a Religious Party and Policy Predictions for the Future Trump Administration

The United States is a nation founded on the teachings of pure Protestantism—specifically Puritanism—rather than just general Christianity. Trump's "America First" likely refers to "prioritizing national interests" and "focusing on domestic affairs over foreign policy," but it also resonates with the concept of "America as God's chosen people and God's country," which lies at the root of this Puritanism.

Since its founding, the United States has repeatedly experienced Great Awakening movements—at least four times by around 1960. During this period, it transformed a barren land inhabited only by indigenous peoples into the world's most prosperous superpower in less than 300 years. This history exists because Americans have been instilled with a strong sense of pride, not just in enjoying God's blessings, but in being a people chosen by God.

This resurgence of religion in politics is not occurring only in the United States; it can be seen as a global phenomenon reacting against globalization. Religion is a source of identity politics and is crucial for clarifying who one is and where one belongs, and it cannot be denied. It is also important to note that in democratic nations, freedom of belief and freedom of religion are positioned as extremely vital.

Trump's re-election in the U.S. presidential election is a symbol of this era of religious resurgence. A key reason for his re-election was gaining the Hispanic Catholic vote in addition to the votes of Protestant Evangelical Christians. Since 9/11 and the George W. Bush administration, the U.S. Republican Party has strengthened its character as a "religious party," though signs of this were strictly present since the Nixon and Reagan eras. However, Trump has carried this forward in a different form. In contrast, the Democratic Party has historically tended to emphasize being a "secular party." Considering why Harris—a woman of racial minority background, a former Attorney General who advocated for women's abortion rights, open immigration policies, and the expansion of LGBTQ rights—lost this time, it could be said that voters are not necessarily seeking a secular, liberal leader. In particular, while the social class supporting Trump is centered on relatively low-income blue-collar workers, the Harris supporters include many secularized elites—an inconvenient reality that needs analysis. For blue-collar workers, illegal immigrants may threaten their livelihoods by working for low wages, whereas for the middle class and elites, they do not threaten their jobs, allowing them to maintain idealistic stances.

Regarding the immigration issue, Trump is not saying he will exclude all immigrants. He differentiates between legal and illegal immigrants, taking a harsh stance on the latter, while aligning with the Catholic religion and traditional values of legal Hispanic immigrants. This is why he secured the Hispanic Catholic vote. Details on this will be discussed later.

Based on this situation, this article analyzes the results of the 2024 U.S. presidential election from the perspective of religion and considers what policies and diplomacy can be expected under the new Trump administration.

Many of the Evangelical Christians who supported Trump this time live in states located in the southeastern United States, known as the Bible Belt. This region is home to many Christian fundamentalists who believe the Bible literally. They oppose abortion, same-sex marriage (legalized under the Obama administration), and the expansion of LGBTQ rights. Because they do not believe in evolution, they often practice homeschooling (as public schools teach evolution), and they are skeptical of all vaccines, sometimes refusing vaccination.

Protestant Evangelical Christians played a crucial role in the birth of the first Trump administration in 2017. During that term, Trump appointed three conservative Supreme Court justices, which led to the overturning of "Roe v. Wade," the ruling that recognized abortion rights, effectively opening the path to the criminalization of abortion. Consequently, abortion did not become a major point of contention in this election. It was unclear whether the Evangelical Christians who pushed for the criminalization of abortion would return to support Trump again, but when the results came in, the Bible Belt states were painted bright red, signifying a Republican victory. Georgia, which Biden took in 2020, was reclaimed by Trump, and Texas, which is not originally part of the Bible Belt, also showed its presence as a solid Republican state.

Texas is home to what is considered the largest mega-church in the U.S., and Joel Osteen, the charismatic pastor of Lakewood Church in Dallas, is known as a Republican supporter. Additionally, the base of operations for Lance Wallnau—a charismatic pastor from a business background who is involved in "Project 2025" led by the conservative think tank The Heritage Foundation—is also located here.

However, there is also concerning data. In the 21st century, secularization has progressed particularly in developed nations, and religious faith in Christianity has declined among young people in the West, with church attendance continuing to decrease. America, "God's country," is no exception; church attendance on Sundays has indeed dropped among Millennials and Gen Z.

There are over 1,300 mega-churches across the U.S., and the average attendance at the top 50 churches exceeds 10,000 people. A mega-church is defined as having a facility (sanctuary) that can accommodate 2,000 or more people at once. Interestingly, the number of mega-churches and their participation figures have not particularly decreased. Why is this, even though church attendance among youth is falling? In these mega-churches, while charismatic pastors preach the "Gospel," many do not label themselves as a "Christian Church" and instead identify as "Non-Denominational." Many mega-churches have sports and entertainment facilities on their vast grounds, serving more as community centers than churches. However, as far as the author has investigated, religious activities are indeed conducted at these mega-churches. Yet, statistically, mega-churches explicitly marked as "Non-Denominational" are not included in the category of "Christian Churches."

In the U.S., Catholics—a minority—traditionally had a strong tendency to support the Democratic Party. However, a fundamental change occurred in the 2024 election with the movement of the Catholic vote that contributed to Trump's victory. 58% of the total Catholic vote went to Trump, while Harris remained at just under 40%, representing a complete reversal. The reason is that the majority are Hispanic Catholics, who, as a minority compared to whites, previously showed significant support for the Democrats, but this time many Hispanic votes were cast for Trump.

Furthermore, when crossing religion with race and gender factors, as shown in Figure 1, the voting behavior of Hispanic Catholic men completely flipped: in 2020, Biden took 59% and Trump took 36%, whereas in 2024, Harris took 44% and Trump took 54%. This was influenced by the gender factor of Harris being a woman. Additionally, while Biden was Catholic, Harris is a Protestant of a Black Baptist church (the church of Martin Luther King Jr.). Because the Democratic Party follows a secular line, she showed very little religious color during the campaign. Her background, while Asian and African, was not Hispanic, which may also be a reason.

The seven swing states, where support shifts between Democrats and Republicans each election, include the Rust Belt (declining industrial states in the North) and the Sun Belt (Southern states with long sunshine hours and expanding employment due to recent industrial attraction). Here too, the results of the shift in the Hispanic Catholic vote were visible. Comparing 2020 and 2024 in Figure 2, Nevada and Arizona—part of the Sun Belt—were taken by the Democrats in both 2016 and 2020, but Trump reclaimed them from the Democrats in 2024. Furthermore, looking at Figure 3, it is clear that these southwestern states are also states where the Hispanic population has reached 25% or more in recent years.

Nevada, located in the South and adjacent to Arizona which borders Mexico, is easily accessible for Hispanics. Moreover, it has Las Vegas, which offers many service industry jobs in restaurants, hotels, casinos, live houses, and music halls. In fact, many Hispanics are employed in these sectors. Furthermore, while not limited to Hispanics, workers in leisure and dining industries have lower incomes than office workers and rely heavily on tip income (tips for dining in the U.S. are over 25%, about 2.5 times that of Europe). The Trump campaign's promise to make tip income tax-free in this election likely had an impact as well.

In the next chapter, I would like to look at what kind of foreign policy the resulting Trump administration will conduct, focusing on Middle East policy, which is important from a religious perspective.

There are three main reasons why the U.S. supports Israel. Not only the U.S. but also Europe has recently toned down its support, criticizing Israel and condemning the current Netanyahu administration (due to its coalition with religious far-right parties), yet they are careful not to condemn the state of Israel itself. The background includes, first, the history of the Holocaust carried out by Nazi Germany during World War II—the systematic mass murder of Jews where 6 million victims died in camps and gas chambers. There is a sense of guilt that the UK and US, despite being vaguely aware of this during the war, took no action until the end, and that Christian churches (both Catholic and Protestant) were complicit in discriminating against Jews for nearly 2,000 years (Jews were driven from Palestine by the Roman army after the legalization of Christianity in the late Roman Empire).

Because Christian Europe and America bear part of the responsibility for the wartime Holocaust, the state of Israel was founded in 1948. At that time, the memory of the Holocaust was vivid not only in the West but worldwide, leading to UN recognition. However, after experiencing several Middle East wars, the once-weak Israel grew into a military power with the support of the UK and US (becoming solely the US within a few years), displacing many Palestinians as refugees and leading to the current Gaza conflict.

Even today, criticizing Judaism remains a taboo while criticizing Israel, and denying the Holocaust can be a criminal offense (for example, in Germany, one can be arrested just for wearing fashion items with Nazi symbols). However, although criticizing Israel and criticizing Judaism are distinct, the majority of Israeli citizens and Jews do not distinguish between the two (though a liberal minority does).

The second religious reason is that in the U.S., particularly the Protestant Evangelicals who support Republican Trump, believe in Christian Zionism. While Biden is Catholic, it cannot be said that he lacks sympathy for this Christian Zionism. The ideology is defined as follows:

1. Israel is the only land given by God (the God of Judaism and Christianity).

2. The parent body of Christianity is Judaism.

3. Jesus was executed as a Jew.

4. Christians who support Israel receive blessings from God.

5. Christians who mistreat Jews will face God's judgment.

Christian Zionists believe that their souls will go to Jerusalem after death and that they will be saved by going to Jerusalem.

However, there are Muslims in Jerusalem. Therefore, they want Israel to subdue the Muslims and make Jerusalem a land for Judaism and Christianity. This is because the "Book of Revelation" in the Bible states that when the end of the world comes, Jesus will appear on earth to fight the devil and separate those who go to hell from those who go to heaven.

The origin of this Christian Zionism actually lies in 19th-century Britain during the British Empire, but it eventually spread to the U.S. This thinking remains strong among American Christians today, especially the Evangelicals who support Trump. Therefore, a more pro-Israel policy than during the Biden era is expected in the second Trump administration.

Another important aspect of U.S. policy toward the Middle East that must not be forgotten is the Abraham Accords, signed in August 2020 during the first Trump administration. This was a diplomatic agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), later joined by Bahrain. This is highly likely to hold the key in the second Trump administration. Although it was an agreement signed by Trump, Biden also recommended it. Hamas, fearing they would be abandoned by Arab nations like the UAE and Saudi Arabia that had supported Palestine, launched a surprise attack on Israel in October 2023, which triggered the current Gaza conflict.

The name "Abraham" refers to the prophet recognized equally by the People of the Book—Christianity, Islam, and Judaism—and the accords represent an agreement that these three religions can coexist. In reality, it is a deal where oil-rich Gulf Arab states can receive scientific and technological support from Israel and the U.S. in preparation for oil depletion or price crashes, while also suppressing their rival, Shia Iran. Although the Abraham Accords are currently frozen due to the Hamas attack on Israel, Trump appears to believe he can revive them and restore his credibility in the international community as a peace mediator.

The outcome depends on how Trump can control Israel's Netanyahu, who is in a coalition with far-right religious parties. Since the Evangelical Christian lobby supporting Trump believes that Palestinians should simply disappear, the focus will be on whether he can bring about a catalyst for peace in the Middle East as a "business deal" while balancing these interests.