[Feature: The Presidential Election and the Future of America] Takakazu Yamagishi: The "Conservative" Grassroots Strategy in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election — The Rise of Turning Point USA

2025/02/05

In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump achieved a form of revenge for his previous defeat. While Trump has long been said to be strong among white male blue-collar workers, in this election he also increased his vote share across many categories, including minority groups such as Hispanics and Black Americans. The result was a broad endorsement of Trumpism.

Various factors have been pointed out for this. Many people sought a new direction for economic policy as inflation under the Biden administration failed to subside. Others called for strict measures against illegal immigration, believing domestic job opportunities were being taken away. People who felt constrained by so-called political correctness—the pressure to speak and act in ways deemed politically correct—were drawn to Trump, who repeatedly made statements without fear of causing a "backlash." Additionally, the skillful execution of messaging strategies through podcasts and other media has been noted.*1

I will leave the analysis of the specific impacts of these various factors to future research. What I want to focus on in this article is the movement surrounding young people over a slightly longer term.

Since winning the 2016 election against most expectations, the Republican Party has transformed from a Reagan-style conservative party into the "Party of Trump." Although he suffered a defeat to Biden in the 2020 election, he boasted the highest number of votes ever for a Republican candidate. Then, he made a comeback in the 2024 election. Due to his intense and seemingly impulsive behavior, there is a tendency to focus on short-term impacts in election analysis; however, the purpose of this article is to point out that there were grassroots movements to turn the Republican Party into the Party of Trump and simultaneously spread Trumpism.

On December 22 last year, Trump appeared at an event in Arizona described as a "victory rally" and delivered a 75-minute speech. It was the first large-scale rally held after his victory in the November general election. The event was organized by Turning Point USA (hereafter TPUSA), an organization based in Phoenix, Arizona, and was moderated by its representative, Charlie Kirk. Trump mentioned TPUSA as follows: "I want to give a very special thanks to Charlie Kirk. He's a truly spectacular person, and his entire staff worked tirelessly to achieve this very historic victory.*2" This rally can be said to symbolize Trump's recognition of TPUSA's significant contribution to his victory.

TPUSA, which won the honor of hosting this victory rally, is an organization founded in 2012 by Kirk when he was 18, along with Bill Montgomery.*3 Its purpose was to spread conservatism among high school and college students, the so-called Gen Z. Its official website states its purpose as follows: "TPUSA guides citizens to participate in their communities in meaningful ways to help them develop the knowledge, skills, values, and motivation to restore traditional American values such as patriotism, respect for life, liberty, family, and fiscal responsibility.*4"

Kirk is said to have initially campaigned primarily to spread libertarian ideas, but as Trump became a leading candidate in the 2016 presidential race, he drew closer and grew the organization in a way that aligned with Trump's thinking and policies.*5

Kirk calls white people "the most hated people in America." He goes as far as to say the situation is similar to when Jews were sent to Auschwitz, and describes Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., who promoted the civil rights movement, as a "terrible person." He also shows a negative attitude toward sexual diversity and argues that forming families through marriage between a man and a woman is the right thing to do. He attacks the Democratic Party for leaning into identity politics and spreads the message that economic policies for the middle class should be the top priority.*6

There were young people who sympathized with these ideas even before TPUSA was founded. However, they were unable to speak out in environments with many liberal high school and college students, teachers, and staff. Kirk took notice of this. Currently, the organization has over 800 chapters at universities. Its financial scale has also expanded, with revenue increasing from approximately $2 million in 2015 to approximately $80 million by 2023.*7

Traditionally, individual candidate campaigns or the Republican National Committee led activities to win over voters. However, in the 2024 election, a large part of that was "outsourced" to several external organizations.*8 TPUSA was one of the most important among them.*9

Leading up to the 2024 election, Kirk conducted a campaign called the "You’re Being Brainwashed Tour." This could be translated as "A tour to save you from being brainwashed by the left." Initially planned for events at four universities, the number swelled to 25. At an event at Georgia State University held just before the election, Kirk took the stage with Vivek Ramaswamy, who had withdrawn from the Republican primary and shifted his support to Trump.*10

According to Professor Cas Mudde of the same university, a similar event was held on campus in 2018, but the level of energy this time was different from the past. The previous tour also had the goal of denouncing cultural Marxism and was similar in content, but it had a more restrained feel, providing a "safe space for right-wing students to gather." However, he pointed out that this tour transformed into a "loud and proud rally" with hundreds of students wearing red MAGA hats.*11

According to Mudde, the change stems from the political environment in which these young people grew up. First, the fact that Trump was president remains in their memories of growing up. Second, they grew up while the Republican Party was becoming the Party of Trump. Third, they remember Trump supporters storming the U.S. Capitol. Young people raised in Republican-supporting households, in particular, consider these things to be "completely normal."*12

Professor Amy Binder, who has studied political activity on university campuses, particularly conservative activity, assesses the development and influence of TPUSA as follows: "Kirk led this organization, and he began mobilizing (conservative) students by encouraging them to engage in provocative forms of protest. Donors who actively provide political funds to this organization emerged, and its power expanded rapidly. ... His movement became one of the important background factors in the trend where higher education became a cornerstone of the culture war.*13"

It is. Depending on the president's stance, it is also necessary to take into account the possibility that the policy axis may shift.

It has been pointed out that since the 2020 election, TPUSA has expanded its activities from mobilizing conservative youth to spreading religious nationalism throughout American society. In particular, in recent years, Kirk has frequently mentioned the "Seven Mountain Mandate." This is a message that Christians should expand their influence in, or conquer, seven aspects of society: family, religion, education, media, entertainment, business, and government. This movement began in the 1970s but did not receive significant attention until the 2000s. However, it entered the political stage when Paula White, one of the movement's central figures, became a close advisor to Trump during the 2016 election.*14

In 2021, Kirk created an organization called Turning Point USA Faith, which engaged in activities such as providing sermon templates for pastors to make political statements. Some evangelical pastors are wary of such movements. Caleb Campbell is one of them. Campbell points out that, as TPUSA advocates, the number of pastors demonizing the Democratic Party and the left has increased over the past few years. He also notes that they have come to simply believe that seizing power is the solution to anxieties about cultural transformation.*15

Behind Trump's victory in the 2024 election was the grassroots dynamism of TPUSA. At the same time, it contributed to transforming the Republican Party into a party of Trumpism. Spreading Trumpism on high school and college campuses will likely influence the political behavior of this generation for a long time to come.

However, how will Trumpism, which centers primarily on white people and evangelical Christians, expand its political coalition as the proportion of white people in the population decreases? The fact that the importance of diversity was emphasized in Trump's victory speech immediately after the election illustrates this difficulty. Under the provisions of the U.S. Constitution, Trump cannot seek re-election in 2028. We should pay attention to the direction of "Trumpism without Trump" and how TPUSA, which made a major contribution this time, will proceed with its activities.

*1 Eric Cortellessa, “How Trump Won,” Time, November 6, 2024, https://time.com/7172052/how-donald-trump-won-2024/?utm_source=chatgpt.com, accessed on December 23, 2024; Brian Barrett, “The Manosphere Won,” Wired, November 6, 2024, https://www.wired.com/story/donaldtrump-manosphere-won/, accessed on December 23, 2024; Venessa Wong, “How Trump won middle-class voters — and what his return means for their finances,” MarketWatch, November 25, 2024, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-trump-won-middle-class-voters-and-what-his-returnmeans-for-their-finances-219e1762?utm_source=chatgpt.com, accessed on December 26, 2024.

*2 Lalee Ibssa, Kelsey Walsh, and Soo Rin Kim, “Trump takes a victory lap with young conservatives,” ABC News, December 23, 2024, https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trumptakes-victory-lap-young-conservatives/story?id=117032373, accessed on December 27, 2024.

*5 Lisa Hagen, “Beyond campuses and churches, can Charlie Kirk turn out votes for Trump?” NPR, October 24, 2024, How Charlie Kirk's groups are trying to elect Trump : NPR, accessed on December 22, 2024.

*6 George Fabe Russell and Sarah Gleason, “Who is Charlie Kirk? Here’s what he had to say on Day 1 of the RNC,” USA Today, July 16, 2024, Who is Charlie Kirk? Turning Point USA co-founder, RNC speaker, accessed on December 23, 2024.

*7 ProPublica, “Turning Point USA Inc.,” Turning Point Usa Inc - Nonprofit Explorer - ProPublica, accessed on January 3, 2025. Large-scale funding is provided by conservative foundations such as the Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation, the Ed Uihlein Family Foundation, and other foundations associated with the Koch brothers.

*10 Joshua Rhett Miller, “How Charlie Kirk’s ‘Brainwashed Tour Helped Reelect Trump,” Newsweek, November 8, 2024, https://www.newsweek.com/charlie-kirk-turning-pointtrump-reelection-1983029, accessed on December 22, 2024.

*11 Cas Mudde, “What I learned when Turning Point USA came to my campus,” The Guardian, October 24, 2024, What I learned when Turning Point USA came to my campus | Cas Mudde | The Guardian, accessed on December 22, 2024.

*13 Interview with Professor Amy Binder at Johns Hopkins University (October 28, 2024). For details of Professor Binder's arguments, see the following: https://www.spf.org/jpus-insights/spf-america-monitor/spf-america-monitordocument-detail_169.html. For more details on the changing political environment on university campuses, see: Amy J. Binder and Jeffrey L. Kidder, The Channels of Student Activism: How the Left and Right Are Winning and Losing in Campus Politics Today (Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 2022).

*14 Kathryn Post, “Charlie Kirk Aims to Expand Turning Point USA to Evangelical Campuses,” Christianity Today, November 4, 2024, https://www.christianitytoday.com/2024/11/charlie-kirk-turning-point-usa-christiancollege-politics-liberty-gcu/, accessed on December 22, 2024; “Paula White: Trump Spiritual Adviser,” PBS, March 25, 2024, Paula White | FRONTLINE | PBS | Official Site | Documentary Series, accessed on December 23, 2024.