Michito Tsuruoka: Europe at the Mercy of Events—Russia, Ukraine, and the United States

2024/11/20

Europe is in a state of flux. Domestic politics in various countries are wavering, and diplomacy, security, and defense are also in turmoil. Europe finds itself at the mercy of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the expansion of conflict in the Middle East, and the U.S. presidential election.

However, this is by no means a new story. After World War II, Western European countries chose to ensure their security through an alliance with the United States known as NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization). By doing so, it can be said that they were destined, both inevitably and constantly, to be at the mercy of the United States.

The full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia, which began on February 24, 2022, was one of the greatest shocks to Europe in the post-war era. Classic interstate warfare has returned to 21st-century Europe.

In this war, Europe was primarily at the mercy of Russia. Likely as a result of NATO's deterrence functioning, no direct attacks on the territory of NATO member states have occurred. Nevertheless, countries have been forced to review their defense postures, and defense budgets have been raised in many European nations. Within NATO, efforts to strengthen deterrence and defense postures against Russia have progressed, including enhancing readiness and increasing troop deployments to countries bordering Russia, such as the Baltic states.

There was also a demand to reduce or eliminate dependence on Russia for energy, represented by natural gas and oil. The EU (European Union) has gradually tightened sanctions against Russia. While far from a total economic blockade, these are powerful sanctions compared to what was imagined before the invasion.

That said, nothing has been decided regarding the medium- to long-term relationship with Russia looking ahead to the post-war period. In the Baltic states and Poland, the discourse that "Russia is Russia" has been reinforced, further solidifying the view that Russia should never be trusted.

On the other hand, the fact remains that Russia is a fellow inhabitant of the same continent, and voices in countries like Germany and France remain persistent that some kind of relationship must be rebuilt in the future. It is not yet clear which side will prevail, but it is certain that no consensus exists within Europe.

If Europe is at the mercy of the invasion of Ukraine, it is not only because of Russia. The aspect of Europe being at the mercy of Ukraine is also important.

For European countries, Ukraine is an entity to be supported. However, the provision of weapons and other aid has proceeded in a way that has been, so to speak, pulled along by Ukraine. Compared to the situation before or at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the level of European support for Ukraine today has risen to a completely different level, and the honest feeling in many countries may be, "This isn't what we intended."

Because Ukraine showed a capacity for resistance beyond initial expectations, and because Russia's acts of aggression were so horrific—as seen in numerous war crimes—European countries' support for Ukraine continued to expand both qualitatively and quantitatively.

However, the ultimate question asked there is: "Are we truly prepared to accept Ukraine as a member of Europe?" In other words, will they grant membership to NATO and the EU and enter into a relationship of shared fate or a community of destiny with Ukraine?

Otherwise, Ukraine will ultimately remain an unstable element in the European order. Consequently, the view is spreading that there is no solution other than admitting it to NATO and the EU. On the other hand, while EU accession negotiations with Ukraine have already begun, the degree of resolve among the parties involved is unclear. They may have simply found themselves "having come this far" before they realized it.

Finally, there is the part mentioned at the beginning: Europe being at the mercy of the United States. Regardless of the outcome of the November 2024 presidential election, Europe has already been at the mercy of the U.S.

Under the Biden administration since 2021, there were no situations where overall U.S.-European relations fell into serious conflict. However, it was symbolic that U.S. support for Ukraine almost stopped from December 2023 to April 2024 due to conflict within the U.S. Congress. Europe was unable to fill the gap left by the U.S., and the war situation worsened.

It might sound natural that Europe alone cannot deal with a military power like Russia. However, the reality is that Europe's economic scale (GDP) is about seven times that of Russia, and its defense budget is more than double. If Europe still cannot cope at all on its own, it must mean that something is not working well. The United Kingdom and France also possess nuclear weapons.

Ultimately, this is a question of whether Europe "can be autonomous" from the United States, and at the same time, whether it truly "wants to be autonomous." However, the luxury of asking whether one "wants to be autonomous" is only possible because of the existence of the option to depend on the U.S. If that option itself is being lost, the premise changes significantly. The time for decision is approaching for Europe.